<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/impressive-day-for-equities-as-a-late-bid-arrives-20230113/“>Impressive day for equities as a late bid arrives</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/key-earnings-releases-scheduled-for-next-week-20230113/“>Key earnings releases scheduled for next week (and going forward)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Cryptocurrency/bitcoin-moves-closer-to-200-day-ma-at-1951082-20230113/“>Bitcoin moves closer to 200 day MA at $19510.82.</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-is-set-for-the-highest-weekly-close-since-april-whats-next-20230113/“>Gold is set for the highest weekly close since April, what’s next</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/wti-crude-oil-settles-at-7986-20230113/“>WTI crude oil settles at $79.86</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/how-us-cpi-could-fall-more-quickly-than-anticipated-20230113/“>How US CPI could fall more quickly than anticipated</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/baker-hughes-oil-rigs-up-5-in-the-current-week-20230113/“>Baker Hughes Oil rigs up 5 in the current week</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/deutsche-bank-revises-german-2023-gdp-forecast-to-0-from-10-20230113/“>Deutsche Bank revises German 2023 GDP forecast to 0% from -1.0%</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/what-could-be-a-problem-technically-for-the-sp-20230113/“>What could be a problem technically for the S&P?</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/european-equity-close-another-day-of-gains-why-not-20230113/“>European equity close: Another day of gains, why not?</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/the-yen-is-screaming-about-the-risks-around-the-bank-of-japan-20230113/“>The yen is screaming about the risks around the Bank of Japan</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-30-year-fixed-mortgage-rate-could-break-6-20230113/“>US 30-year fixed mortgage rate could break 6%</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/umich-jan-us-prelim-consumer-sentiment-646-vs-605-expected-20230113/“>UMich Jan US prelim consumer sentiment 64.6 vs 60.5 expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/it-is-friday-the-13th-the-morning-forex-technical-report-will-help-guide-you-through-20230113/“>It is Friday the 13th. The morning forex technical report will help guide you through…</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-december-import-price-index-04-mm-vs-09-expected-20230113/“>US December import price index +0.4% m/m vs -0.9% expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/th-jpy-is-the-strongest-and-the-nzd-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20230113/“>Th JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/jamie-dimon-has-no-idea-whats-coming-for-the-us-economy-20230113/“>Jamie Dimon has no idea what’s coming for the US economy</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-european-fx-news-wrap-dollar-regains-some-composure-as-risk-slips-20230113/“>ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar regains some composure as risk slips</a></li></ul><p>The ghost of 2022 is behind us in the stock market as the major indices closed higher for the 2nd consecutive week to start the new year. The gains have been led by the Nasdaq which rose by an oversized 4.82% this week (largest 1 week gain since November 7 week), after rising by near 1% last week. </p><p>The Nasdaq closed above its 100 day MA at 11057.78 with a close for the day and week at 11079.17. That is the first close above that MA going back to September 12, 2022.</p><p>The S&P index closed the week up 2.67% and like the Nasdaq, is closing above a key daily MA level. For it, the S&P is closing above its 200 day MA for the 1st time since December 1. </p><p>Risk on was the name of the game with Cathy Woods ARK Innovation rising by 14.73% for the week, which was the largest weekly gain for it since June 21, 2022 week, and the 4th largest weekly gain going back to April 2020.. </p><p>CPI fears were eased a bit this week, when the CPI data for the month of December showed a MoM decline of -0.1% for the headline number on Thursday. The last 6 months MoM numbers cumulate to 0.9% over that time period, which if anualized comes to 1.8% YoY – below the 2% target for the Fed. The service inflation is still higher, however, which is likely to keep the Fed on the tighten path until it start to slow as well. </p><p>Nevertheless, there even more good things to come for the CPI going forward as some fairly lofty levels from the 1H of 2022, will start to fall out of the YoY calculations. </p><p>Moreover, Tesla today announced they were slashing the cost of the Model 3 by $3K and the Model Y by a whooping $13k (see <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/how-us-cpi-could-fall-more-quickly-than-anticipated-20230113/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Adam’s post</a> on what is ahead for YoY inflation numbers). </p><p>The Michigan consumer survey (preliminary) saw 1 year inflation expectations fall to 4.0% since same level in June 2021. The Goldilocks number also showed above consensus numbers for the current conditions and expectations (<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/umich-jan-us-prelim-consumer-sentiment-646-vs-605-expected-20230113/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>see post here</a>).</p><p>The price of housing is also expected to come off going forward which will put a tailwind to the downside. </p><p>The problem with inflation remains the service sector where that measure of inflation rose by 0.6% in the CPI data this week (compared to the -0.1% decline). </p><p>Looking at the forex market today, the JPY remained well bid as trader gear up for the BOJ meeting on Wednesday. The CAD, NZD and EUR fought it out for the weakest of the major currencies today. </p><p>The USD fell vs all the major currencies this week led by a 3.21% move vs the JPY (JPY was higher by that amount). Looking at the changes for the week vs the greenback</p><ul><li>EUR +1.80%</li><li>GBP. +1.21%</li><li>JPY +3.21%</li><li>CHF +0.61%</li><li>CAD +0.37%</li><li>AUD +1.52%</li><li>NZD +0.66%</li></ul><p>In the US debt market this week:</p><ul><li>2 year yield fell -3.2 bps to 4.224%</li><li>5 year yield fell -10.2 bps to 3.599%</li><li>10 year yield fell -6.2 bps to 3.498%</li><li>30 year yield fell -7.8 bps to 3.61%</li></ul><p>In commodities, gold, silver and oil is ending the week higher. Natural gas is lower:</p><ul><li>Gold is closing near the high for the week. It rose $54.70 or 2.93% at $1919.50. That is the highest close since April 11, 2022 week. </li><li>SIlver is up $0.46 or 1.947% at $24.25. That is also the highest close since April 11, 2022 week. </li><li>Crude oil is trading back above the $80 in post settlement trading (at $80.02). The gain for the week is $6.27 or 8.47%</li><li>Natural gas is trading down -$0.33 or -9.15% at $3.32.</li></ul>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The New York Stock Exchange is closed on Monday for the MLK holiday. The CME and CBOT are also closed and SIFMA recommends a holiday in the bond market.</p><p>CME Globex trading will continue as normal — so futures are open — but will close early at 1 pm ET (1800 GMT) and then reopen at 6 pm ET (2300 GMT).</p><p>The FX market is open as always but liquidity will be thinned, particularly after Europe heads out.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Some of the key earnings releases scheduled for next week:</p><p>Tuesday January 17</p><ul><li>Morgan Stanley</li><li>Goldman Sachs</li><li>Interactive Brokers</li><li>Unites Airlines</li></ul><p>Wednesday, January 18</p><ul><li>Charles Schwab</li><li>PNC Financial</li><li>Kinder Morgan</li><li>Discover</li><li>JB Hunt</li><li>Alcoa</li></ul><p>Thursday, January 19</p><ul><li>Proctor and Gamble</li><li>Netflix</li><li>PPG Industries</li><li>American Airlines</li><li>Comerica</li><li>Kimberly Clark</li></ul><p>Friday, January 20</p><ul><li>Schlumberger</li></ul><p>Other key earnings ahead:</p><p>Tuesday, January 24</p><ul><li>Microsoft</li><li>J&J</li><li>Verizon</li><li>Raytheon</li><li>Lockheed Martin</li><li>General Electric</li><li>3M</li><li>Travelers</li></ul><p>Wednesday, January 25</p><ul><li>Tesla</li><li>AT&T</li><li>IBM</li><li>Boeing</li><li>ServiceNow</li><li>General Dynamics</li><li>Hess</li></ul><p>Thursday, January 26</p><ul><li>McDonald’s</li><li>Comcast</li><li>Intel</li><li>Intuitive Surgical</li><li>Freeport McMoran</li><li>Dow</li><li>Southwest airlines</li><li>US Steel</li></ul><p>Tuesday, January 31</p><ul><li>Alphabet</li><li>Exxon Mobil</li><li>Pfizer</li><li>Caterpillar</li><li>AMD</li><li>Stryker</li><li>General Motors</li></ul><p>Wednesday, February 1</p><ul><li>Meta-Platforms</li><li>Alibaba</li><li>PayPal holdings</li><li>Boston Scientific</li></ul><p>Thursday, February 2</p><ul><li>Apple</li><li>Amazon</li><li>Visa</li><li>MasterCard</li><li>Merck and Company</li><li>Bristol-Myers Squibb</li><li>ConocoPhillips</li><li>Honeywell</li><li>Amgen</li><li>Qualcomm</li><li>Starbucks</li><li>Ford Motor</li><li>Motorola</li></ul>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>S&P 500 futures fell by as many as 40 points in the premarket but the bulls steadied the ship and have slowly turned it around. The index is now up 15 points to a session high of 4018.</p><p>There’s a year-long downtrend in the index that could soon be threatened.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The price of Bitcoin has continued its run to the upside today and is getting closer to its 200 day MA at $19510.90. The high price today has reached $19396 so far, just $120 or so from the MA level.</p><p>The price of bitcoin has not traded above its 200 day MA since December 31, 2021. </p><p>The price today moved above its 38.2% retracement of the move down from the August 15, 2022 high. That comes in at $19,279. That level is a close risk level for buyers. </p><p>For the week, the price is up 13.25% this week. That is the largest % gains since March 21, 2022 week when the price was up 13.63%%</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As US futures dip, that is helping the dollar find a bit of a lift in European trading as we see some light hints of risk aversion come into play.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>USD/JPY has risen from a session low of 128.10 earlier to 128.75 currently as the greenback starts to show more poise across the board. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is down 0.3% to a low of 1.0810 currently. That said, both pairs are still in a good spot following yesterday’s action as noted earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-faces-added-pressure-after-yesterdays-cpi-data-20230113/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, GBP/USD has fallen from 1.2240 earlier in the day to 1.2175 now with the antipodeans also weaker amid the softer risk mood. AUD/USD is down 0.3% to 0.6945 and NZD/USD down 0.5% to 0.6360. The former came close to testing the 0.7000 mark before pulling back currently.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s a mixed bag but US futures have dipped in the past half hour or so with S&P 500 futures now down by 15 points, or 0.4%, on the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There is a slight hint of risk aversion seeping through and that is helping the dollar gain some ground across the board as well. AUD/USD is down 0.4% to 0.6945 while GBP/USD has seen gains turn to losses from 1.2240 earlier to 1.2175 currently, at the lows for the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>USD/JPY is still the only pair bucking the trend, down 0.4% to 128.70 but at least off its earlier low of 128.10.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“The economic slowdown over the winter half-year will, according to the data we have now, be milder and shorter than expected“, says Habeck.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That’s an encouraging notion with the German stats office earlier also estimating that the economy only stagnated in Q4, despite views that a contraction would have been on the cards. That pushes back further slightly recession risks for Europe’s largest economy at least.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>The recent economic data gave the Russell 2000 and the market reason to break out of the Christmas holidays range and the bullish
sentiment looks to be strong. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The beat in <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-december-non-farm-payrolls-223k-vs-200k-expected-20230106/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>NFP</a> numbers and the miss in AHE
(Average Hourly Earnings) made the market to expect a goldilocks scenario:
strong labour market without wage inflation. Moreover, the big miss in <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/ism-december-us-services-496-vs-550-expected-20230106/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>ISM
Services PMI</a> made the market to expect the Fed to stop hiking
soon with an earlier than expected cutting cycle on the horizon.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Yesterday, the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-december-cpi-65-yy-vs-65-expected-20230112/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>US
CPI</a> came out
as expected, and what caught the market’s attention was another beat in <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-205k-versus-215k-estimate-20230112/“>Jobless
Claims</a> data, which showed a resilient and strong labour
market. This
should actually be bearish as it would keep the Fed on its track of hiking to
5% or more and then stay there for longer. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>So, they may keep conditions
tight for too long causing an overtightening of financial conditions. But
the market is looking more at the goldilocks scenario at the moment, and we
need to wait for it to start worrying about the above-mentioned risks before
switching to a more bearish bias.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>RUSSELL
2000 Technical Analysis</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>In the
daily chart above, we can see how the price, after breaking out of the
Christmas holidays range, started a strong bullish run to the upside
targeting the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> zone at 1920. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>A break
above that zone may open the doors for a run to the resistance at 2030. A
failure at the 1920 zone and bearish fundamentals would make the price to fall
back to possibly the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>support</a> at 1650.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>In the 1-hour chart above, we
can see the recent economic data and risk events that boosted the bullish
sentiment. The breakout started with the NFP and PMI data. The market then
leaned on the defensive side going into <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/powell-we-need-to-stick-to-our-mandate-20230110/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Fed
Chair Powell</a> speech, but since he didn’t offer anything
bearish, the market resumed its rally. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Finally, the CPI data in line
with expectations and the beat in Jobless Claims gave the market another reason
to keep the bullish momentum intact. The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 1920 looks like the natural
target for the current uptrend. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Zooming in to the 15 minutes
chart, we can see the near term levels of interest. If the price stays above
the 1873 level the market should maintain the bullish bias and target the
resistance at 1920. If the price breaks below the 1843 level, sellers should
regain control and target the range breakout level at 1800. Between the
green and red lines the price would be in no man’s land and it shouldn’t offer
any trading opportunities. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior -2.0%; revised to -1.9%</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Euro area industrial output edged up slightly in November, helped by an improvement in intermediate goods (+0.8%), capital goods (+1.0%), and durable consumer goods (+0.4%). That if offset against a decline in energy production (-0.9%) and non-durable consumer goods (-1.3%).</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.