<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This looks to be a bit of a breather after the action on Thursday and Friday mostly, which saw the dollar hold its ground while stocks suffered a beating. European indices are up around 0.3% to 0.6% on the day, but that comes off the back of 2% to over 3% losses last week. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are up 8 points, or 0.2%, on the day currently.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Despite the light bounce, the technical overview for equities is quite ominous after having seen the S&P 500 broke below its 100-day moving average last week:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The double-top pattern near 4,100 suggests a breakdown towards 3,760 next potentially.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As for the dollar, some slight weakness today puts into consideration some key levels as noted earlier in the posts below:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-holds-lower-to-start-the-week-amid-boj-rumours-20221219/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>USD/JPY holds lower to start the week amid BOJ rumours</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurusd-eyes-upside-break-again-after-last-weeks-late-slip-up-20221219/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>EUR/USD eyes upside break again after last week’s late slip up</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/gbpusd-holds-higher-on-softer-dollar-but-gains-arent-all-that-meaningful-20221219/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>GBP/USD holds higher on softer dollar but gains aren’t all that meaningful</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But as we move towards the Christmas holiday, thinner liquidity conditions will make it tough to really read into the market moves as a whole. Even today, there is a bit of a mixed picture with bonds falling as we see 10-year Treasury yields hold higher by 3 bps to 3.52%.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The move higher in Japanese bond yields earlier in the day has helped somewhat with the move, amid chatter that the government and BOJ might look to revise its joint statement on policy and <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation/“ target=“_blank“ id=“ad51a5a2-1afc-4f42-9e62-ea6faf6f90fa_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>inflation</a> target/outlook.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>Identification,
evaluation, and control of risks to an organization’s resources and <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://cinpax.com/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>profits</a> are steps in the
risk management process. These risks have many causes, including financial
unpredictability, legal responsibilities, technological problems, <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://cinpax.com/Registration“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>strategic management</a> blunders,
accidents, and natural calamities.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Process for
Analyzing Risk</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>In identifying and
ranking risks for the goal of assessing and addressing them, risk analysis is a
qualitative approach to problem-solving. The risk analysis procedure is as follows:</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Identify current
dangers</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The primary method
for identifying risks is brainstorming. First, a company gathers its staff to
discuss all the different risk factors. The next step is to prioritize each of
the identified hazards. Prioritization makes ensuring that risks that can have
a considerable impact on a business are addressed more immediately because it
is impossible to minimize all existing hazards.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Analyze the hazards</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Finding an
acceptable remedy comes first, followed by identifying the issue in many
situations. Before determining the best way to manage risks, a company should
identify its root cause by asking, „What made the risk happen, and how
could it influence the business?“</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Create a suitable
response</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>A business entity
must address the following questions once it has decided to evaluate potential
solutions to lessen recognized risks and avoid their recurrence: What steps can
be taken to prevent the identified risk from occurring again?</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Create safeguards
against recognized hazards</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The concepts that
were discovered to be helpful in risk mitigation are developed into various
activities here and, from there, into contingency plans that can be used in the
future. The plans can be implemented if risks arise.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The Essence of Risk
Management</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Your company may
only see a little impact from an unexpected incident, such as a slight increase
in overhead expenditures. In the worst-case situation, though, it may be
disastrous and have severe backlashes, like an enormous financial load or the
liquidation of your company.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>An organization
must allocate resources to minimize, monitor, and regulate the impact of
adverse incidents while optimizing favorable ones in order to mitigate risk.
How to best identify, manage, and reduce essential risks. It can be controlled
with a consistent, comprehensive, and integrated approach to risk management.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>RUN-THROUGH</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>An effective risk
management program aids a business in taking into account all potential risks.
In addition, the relationship between risks and the possible adverse cascade
effects on the strategic objectives of an organization are also examined by
risk management.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Risk management
does more than point out a company’s existing risks. Successful risk
management should always determine the uncertainties and foresees the influence
of risks on a business.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>When predicting
such risks, a business should devise a list of problem-solving
approaches. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Structures of risk
management can be applied to budgeting, cost management, organizing, and
planning. A corporation should establish risk management as a well-managed
continuous process to resolve and detect issues.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Consequently, the
result only has two options: acceptance or rejection of risks, depending on the
tolerance levels that a business or a company has already defined for
itself. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior -5</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>UK factory output and export orders declined in December, underscoring further troubles for the manufacturing sector. CBI notes that „the corrosive effect of higher inflation on demand is increasingly clear, as manufacturing output contracted at the fastest pace in two years over the last quarter“.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Have you ever noticed a gap between a stock’s closing and
starting prices without trade? If the answer is yes, you were likely unaware
that the name of gapping knows this market occurrence. This article will
discuss the causes of stock price gaps, different sorts of gaps, and what
„gap up“ in <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://maxiwyse.com/Registration“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>stock trading</a> means.

</p><p>Why Do Stock Prices Differ?</p><p>Gaps happen when a stock’s opening price and closing price
diverge. Although we’ll concentrate on stock gaps, they can occur in any <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://maxiwyse.com/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>financial market</a>. A gap typically appears when there needs to be more buyers and
sellers to prevent unexpected declines and spikes in price. This is known as
low market liquidity.</p><p>Even markets with a massive volume of activity, like the forex
market, are susceptible to this. After a trading day concludes and the market
opens the next day, gaps are frequently seen in the stock market. Important
occurrences like earnings announcements and corporate news can affect market
sentiment after the stock closes, causing gaps in the price.</p><p>TYPES OF GAPS</p><p>Not all gaps are the same, depending on the state of the market.
Here is a list of the most typical gaps:</p><p>Breakaway gap: A breakaway gap, which typically
appears at the peak of an uptrend and the bottom of a downtrend, indicates that
the trend may be about to reverse. It may also develop during the breakouts of
significant chart patterns, and their intensity may be increased by high
trading volume.</p><p>Continuation Gaps: Gaps in the trend’s
direction can appear in the middle of powerful uptrends or downtrends. They
indicate the presence of significant buying pressure during uptrends or intense
selling pressure during downtrends.</p><p>Common gap: As their name implies, these are the
market’s most prevalent gaps. They usually take place when a new trading day
begins in the stock market or after the weekend trading halt in the forex
market. However, they can also happen in times of intense buying or selling
pressure in the middle of the trading day.</p><p>Exhaustion gap: Exhaustion gaps
appear during intense uptrends or downtrends, although they move
counterclockwise to the underlying trend. They indicate that the trend is
beginning to slow down and that a potential reversal may be on the horizon.</p><p>Filled Gap: When a gap develops between the closing
and opening prices, markets frequently close it. This is especially true for
frequent intervals, and a trading strategy can be developed around them.</p><p>Playing the Gap</p><p>Traders can develop a trading strategy and attempt to benefit
from gaps based on emerging gaps. You can generate successful trading chances
if you know how to trade a gap up or down. Here are some things traders should
keep in mind when dealing with gaps as a general rule:</p><p>Since the market frequently fills gaps shortly after they
develop, common gaps should be traded oppositely.</p><p>After a continuation gap emerges, since it indicates a solid and
healthy underlying trend, traders can try to enter that direction.</p><p>FINAL INSIGHT </p><p>An easy and disciplined way to sell and buy stocks is through
gap trading. First, to find stocks with a price gap from the previous close,
one looks for them. Then, one watches the first hour of trading to determine
the trading range. An increase above that range denotes a buy, while a decrease
below it indicates a short.</p><p>Moving forward, in my next article, I will be discussing paper
trade. It is the simplest method for successfully determining your ability to
trade gaps. Paper trading does not involve any actual transaction. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>UPCOMING
EVENTS:</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Monday: US
NAHB Housing Market Index.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Tuesday: PBoC
Rate Decision, BoJ Rate Decision.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Friday:
Japan CPI, US PCE.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Last week we
got two important events: the US CPI and the FOMC Policy Decision. The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-november-cpi-71-yy-vs-73-expected-20221213/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>CPI
missed expectations</a> and caused some risk-on in the market that
lasted for a very short time as the market started to look forward to the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/federal-reserve-hikes-50-basis-points-as-expected-20221214/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>FOMC
Policy Decision</a>. In fact, the market was right in being defensive going
into the event. The Fed was more hawkish than expected and this
hawkishness is depicted in three details:</p><p class=“MsoListParagraph“>· Following
the miss in the CPI report, Fed members had the chance to revise the Dot Plot
until Tuesday evening, so that is after the CPI report, BUT they chose not
to do it.</p><p class=“MsoListParagraph“>· The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fomc-dot-plot-and-central-tendencies-from-dec-2022-meeting-eoy-2023-48-20221214/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Dot
Plot</a> showed an overwhelming consensus from the Fed members in hiking rates
to 5% or higher and remaining higher for longer as no cuts are expected
for 2023 and a 4.1% rate is expected in 2024. </p><p class=“MsoListParagraph“>· <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/powell-opening-statement-we-have-more-work-to-do-20221214/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Fed
Chair Powell sounded resolute</a> in keeping at it and pushed back against
expectations for rate cuts in 2023. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This
resulted in risk-off across the board the day after. The thing is that the
Fed cannot be confident in easing their policy until they have a strong view
that inflation is indeed falling back to their 2% target. The key here may be
the labour market as they continue to repeat that it’s extremely tight. They
want to see the unemployment rate to pick up notably. The problem is that
they always underestimate the eventual pain in the labour market as you can see
in the chart below:</p><p class=“MsoCaption“>Chart from TS Lombard</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>So, in the
end, this leads us to expect a deep recession coupled with a possible
overtightening from the Fed. These two things are the very worst for risk
assets and we should therefore see a flight to safety, which in the currencies
space results in USD buying. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This week is
all about a continuation from the previous one or a choppy price action as we
head into Christmas Holidays. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Monday: We will see
the latest NAHB Housing Market Index report. This index has fallen for 11
straight months and it’s sitting at the 33 level, which is way below the 50
neutral level that divides expansion from contraction. The housing market is
sensitive to interest rates and it’s also a leading indicator for housing
starts. This index is pointing to some really ugly things going forward. It’s
expected to show a little increase to 36 from the 33 level, but since the
fundamentals have not changed and the Fed wants to keep at it, the trend is
still heavily skewed to the downside.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Tuesday: The PBoC is expected to hold the rates unchanged
for both the 1Y LPR at 3.65% and the 5Y LPR at 4.30%. There’s a chance though
that the 5Y LPR could be lowered as the current government policy is to support
the economy. That may result in some very short-term risk-on sentiment but
ultimately should be a fade as the whole world is heading into a deep recession
with central banks still tightening. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The BoJ is
expected to leave policy unchanged and maintain its dovish stance. There was
also a report over the weekend that “Japan’s government is set to revise a
decade-old joint statement with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) that commits the
central bank to achieve its 2% inflation at the earliest date possible”.
With the revision, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will aim at making the BOJ’s 2%
inflation target a more flexible goal with room for allowance, Kyodo reported.
The new statement could remove the phrase „at the earliest date
possible,“ or change the language to clarify that the 2% inflation
target is a medium- to long-term goal rather than one that needs to be achieved
quickly, Kyodo said. There’s some speculation in the market that once
Governor Kuroda departs in April next year, the BoJ may start to exit its
ultra-loose policy. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Friday: Japan CPI is
expected to remain unchanged at 3.7% for the Y/Y headlinefigure and to
edge up to 2.7% Y/Y from the prior 2.5% for the ex Food and Energy reading. The
BoJ has been pretty much ignoring the rising inflation figures but since we
are near the Fed peak in tightening and the BoJ may exit its ultra-loose policy
as Kuroda departs, the JPY should have bottomed and a “buy on dips” as the
global recession deepens. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The US PCE
is expected to show a dip to 5.3% from the prior 6% for the headline Y/Y figure
and a dip to 4.6% from the prior 5% for the Core Y/Y reading. The M/M figures
are expected to show an unchanged reading of 0.3% for the headline reading and
an increase of 0.4% for the Core reading. The PCE shouldn’t be a
market-mover as we already got to see the CPI report and the FOMC repeated its
commitment in keeping at it. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Wish you all
a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This article
was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-sp-global-services-pmi-444-vs-468-expected-20221216/“>US S&P Global services PMI 44.4 vs 46.8 expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-williams-were-well-on-the-way-to-where-we-need-to-be-20221216/“>Fed’s Williams: We’re well on the way to where we need to be</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-mester-recent-inflation-data-is-welcome-news-20221216/“>Fed’s Mester: Recent inflation data is welcome news</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-daly-we-are-resolute-and-focused-on-bringing-inflation-down-20221216/“>Fed’s Daly: We are resolute and focused on bringing inflation down</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/more-from-feds-daly-i-dont-know-why-markets-are-so-optimistic-on-inflation-20221216/“>More from Fed’s Daly: I don’t know why markets are so optimistic on inflation</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/baker-hughes-oil-rig-count-5-to-620-20221216/“>Baker Hughes oil rig count -5 to 620</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/italys-central-bank-forecasts-73-inflation-in-2023-20221216/“>Italy’s central bank forecasts 7.3% inflation in 2023</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-november-new-housing-price-index-02-vs-02-prior-20221216/“>Canada November new housing price index -0.2% vs -0.2% prior</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-oct-wholesale-trade-21-vs-13-expected-20221216/“>Canada Oct wholesale trade +2.1% vs +1.3% expected</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold up $16 to $1793</li><li>US 10-year yields up 3.6 bps to 3.48%</li><li>WTI crude oil down $1.80 to $74.31</li><li>S&P 500 down 43 points to 3852 (-1.1%)</li><li>JPY leads, CHF lags</li></ul><p>The market continued to digest the Fed and ECB stance on Friday and the message is a souring of the mood, leading to selling of equities and the euro on slowing growth prospects. </p><p>USD/JPY fell as the bond market stridently expresses the view that the Fed won’t hike as high as it’s promising, with the terminal rate in Fed fund futures at 4.84% and US 2s lower than at the start of the week. USD/JPY fell after the S&P Global US PMI showed an economy slowing rapidly. It sank as low as 136.30 then bounced to 136.67 to wrap up the week. That move reversed all of yesterday’s rally in US trading.</p><p>Cable continued to struggle, falling a quarter cent on the day even as the US dollar felt some pressure elsewhere. There was some good news with energy prices falling on better weather forecasts but it didn’t translate.</p><p>Putting all the pieces together today was challenging with quad witching in stocks and year-end fast approaching. Next week will be all about flows but we did get a taste today of Fed messaging and officials pushed the idea of higher rates but not with the enthusiasm of Powell.</p><p>Oil may be exemplifying the intensifying fears on the global economy as it fell as much as $4 from high to low today. There was a surprise reprieve as the US announced purchases for the SPR starting in Feb. The 3 million barrels is a small amount but it would signal some support for crude.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>What a fakeout in stocks this week. The bulls were feeling great after the soft CPI and hopeful that Powell would tip the nod towards easier policy. Instead, he leaned in hard to hikes and that was followed by an even-more hawkish lean from Lagarde.</p><p>Now the bond market is signaling an unnecessary recession and US stocks posted an ugly outside day on the chart.</p><p>On the day:</p><ul><li>SPX -1.1%</li><li>Nasdaq Comp -1.0%</li><li>Russell 2000 -0.7%</li><li>DJIA -0.9%</li></ul><p>On the week</p><ul><li></li><li>SPX -2.1%</li><li>Nasdaq Comp -2.8%</li><li>Russell 2000 -1.9%</li></ul><p>There isn’t much to like on the S&P 500 weekly chart after this week’s outside reversal:</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>In the past year we’ve seen the implosions of:</p><ul><li>NFTs</li><li>Meme stocks</li><li>Crypto</li><li>Tech stocks</li></ul><p>With that, you would think retail traders would sober up. Instead, they’ve switched from hard liquor to crack cocaine in the of ultra-short-dated equity options. Here’s a chart from Goldman Sachs showing that 44% of SPX volume in the third and fourth quarter (so far) has been in options with less than 24 hours to expiration.</p><p>Today is quad witching so it makes me skeptical of price action but there’s also a bigger picture story here and it ends badly.</p><p>Whatever happened to investing?</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Seeing tentative signs that inflation rises are stabilizing; not calling a peak </li><li>Expects Fed to hike by more than its median forecast</li><li>It will take time for inflation to ebb</li></ul><p>Mester spoke on Bloomberg TV. </p><p>The Fed is going to spend the next month pushing back against the bond market. We’ll see who wins but the bond market is showing a lot of confidence so far.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>It was a busy week and one of the things I missed was a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://t.co/die4859YAs“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>report </a>from the Philadelphia Fed’s research department that questioned non-farm payrolls numbers.</p><p>The report focuses on the March-June period and compares the comprehensive quarterly data against the usual monthly release. It’s not a small change:</p><blockquote>In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by the sum of the states; the U.S. CES [non-farm payrolls report] estimated net growth of 1,047,000 jobs for the period. </blockquote><p>Said another way, non-farm payrolls were nearly nil from March-June.</p><p>Now some of those jobs appear to have been pushed to earlier periods so it’s not as bad as it seems but if the Fed is concerned with trajectory, then there might be more slowing than the monthly jobs reports have indicated.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.