<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It is a bit of an odd one as the data is due for today alongside that of Q3. Typically, officials will also hold a briefing to speak about the numbers but there isn’t anything about that either. At the end of the day, it is China and there’s only so much one can speculate.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In any case, the data was estimated to show a further decline in the country’s export growth (+4.1% y/y estimate, +7.1% prior) with imports (+1.0% y/y estimate, +0.3% prior) set to remain rather tepid.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The timing might also be an interesting one as this release would be two days before the National Congress – which is to take place on Sunday. For some context, this is the most important meeting of the Chinese Communist Party’s five-year political cycle. The event will be one where Xi is on course for a historic third term as the country’s leader.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s a busy day for UK markets as politics take center stage as UK prime minister, Liz Truss, is set to run back on her campaign promises and announce a corporation tax increase later today. The move is being cheered by domestic bonds as gilts are rallying hard for a second successive session.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The pound is also able to find small pockets of relief but is now still down 0.5% against the dollar at around 1.1270. The low earlier today hit 1.1230 amid a bout of dollar strength. You can check out the price action in this post <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/a-summary-of-the-pound-volatility-this-morning-20221014/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Just keep in mind that the BOE is also set to end its support for the gilts market later today, so the timing of the fiscal U-turn is a welcome one for UK assets in general.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The question now for UK political circles is whether or not Kwarteng’s sacrifice will be enough to take the heat of Truss? If not, expect further volatility to continue for the pound amid the political debacle in the coming weeks/months. This is all as emerging market as it can get. 🤪</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p>The important US CPI data, coupled with the weekly initial claims data, will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The CPI is expected to show a 0.2% rise for the month but a chunky 0.5% gain for the core reading (ex food and energy). That comes after a 0.6% rise last month. Adam previews the data <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/preview-whats-expected-for-thursdays-pivotal-us-cpi-report-20221012/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>. </p><p>For a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/do-you-have-your-cpi-trading-playbook-ready-for-tomorrows-big-release-20221012/“ target=“_blank“>technical playbook</a>, see my video done late yesterday here. The market prices have changed overnight (the GBPUSD is racing above its 200 hour MA) but the key technical levels used to define bias, risk and targets remain in tact The claims data are expected to move up to 225K after rising to 219K last week (it reached a recent cycle low of 193K in the previous week). US jobs from the BLS came out solid on Friday with the unemployment rate moving to a multi decade equaling low of 3.5%. The nonfarm payroll rose by 265K.</p><p>Ahead of the release the GBP is the strongest of the major currencies while the CHF is the weakest. The pound is being supported as PM Truss comes under increased pressure to clawback her tax cut proposal. Bloomberg is confirming that news as I type (but the administration is now denying those ascertions – oh my), and the GBP has gotten another push to the upside and away from its 200 hour MA at 1.1186 (now a risk level as the bias tilts more to the upside for the pair). The EURUSD has moved above its 100 hour MA at 0.9716, neutralizing the bias (the pair is still below its 200 hour MA at 0.9792).</p><p>A look around the markets is showing:</p><ul><li>spot gold is trading up $6.27 or 0.37% at $1679.54</li><li>spot silver is trading up $0.23 or 1.23% at $19.24</li><li>WTI crude oil is trading at $87.52 that’s up around $0.25 on the day</li><li>Bitcoin is trading below the $19,000 level in $18,787. The low price reached $18,584 the lowest price cents September 28</li></ul><p>In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are trading higher:</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average is up 290 points after yesterdays -28.34 point decline</li><li>S&P index is trading up 34.5 points after yesterdays -11.79 point decline</li><li>NASDAQ index is up 70 points after yesterdays -9.09 point decline</li></ul><p>The S&P and NASDAQ have been down for 6 consecutive days and closed in a negative territory for the month yesterday after the 5% plus gain over the 1st 2 trading days of the trading month. </p><p>In the European equity markets, the major indices are moving higher as well:</p><ul><li>German DAX, +1.48%</li><li>France’s CAC +0.1%</li><li>UK’s FTSE 100 +0.5%</li><li>Spain’s Ibex +1.3%</li><li>Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.7%</li></ul><p>In the US debt market, the yields are lower ahead of the data:</p><p>In the European debt market, yields are sharply lower with the UK 10 year yield down -22 basis points leading the way:</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The market moves are starting to gain traction and so is all the talk about the possible budget U-turn. So far, there is no timing on how all of this is going to play out so that is going to set up for very nervous and volatile trading over the next few days in UK markets. Bloomberg sources are now adding that no final decision will be taken until Kwarteng returns from the US.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The pound is also catching a further bid in a push to near 1.1300 before easing slightly now but still up over 1.4% on the day:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s going to be a tough day in the battlefield to sort through this mess, especially with the US CPI data coming up as well.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Well, here we go. Sterling is now nudging higher as there is word on the street that the government may look to perform ‚the mother of all U-turns on the mini-budget‘, despite having earlier brushed aside talk of that <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-pm-spokesperson-says-truss-will-not-u-turn-on-economic-policy-20221013/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There was already a hint to the move earlier from gilts, as was tipped by our friend PiQ in <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/long-end-gilt-yields-come-off-the-boil-20221013/“ target=“_blank“>this earlier post</a>. It looks like the government is the one causing the ripples. Here’s the source tweet for this post:</p><blockquote class=“twitter-tweet“ data-partner=“tweetdeck“><p lang=“en“ dir=“ltr“>A former cabinet minister tells me: “Brace for the mother of all U-Turns on the mini budget today. A friendly person in the know is advising us to steer clear of the media today to avoid the explosion. We wouldn’t want to look silly by tomorrow.” <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/hashtag/waitandsee?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw“>#waitandsee</a></p>— Nicholas Watt (@nicholaswatt) <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1580517767299547136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw“>October 13, 2022</a></blockquote><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“> That’s going to be real interesting but keep in mind, for now this is all talk still. There’s also added context here:</p><blockquote class=“twitter-tweet“ data-partner=“tweetdeck“><p lang=“en“ dir=“ltr“>Downing Street denying any changes to mini budget but I’m told by sources discusssions underway over which bits might yet be junked give the scale of the concernLooking at a return to the mandate from the leadership contestNo clarity on timing of announcement if it happens</p>— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1580521390683586560?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw“>October 13, 2022</a></blockquote><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“> So far, gilts aren’t responding too much with 30-year yields still holding down about 30 bps to 4.57% at the moment.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Update: GBP/USD now climbing above 1.1200, up 1% on the day.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Well, we’re less than 1.5 hours to the main event this week and it’s always best to be reminded of the big picture every now and then. Everyone will be looking at whether or not the numbers are going to be a hit or a miss later but if they are within estimates, we are still dealing with 8% (!) inflation in the US. Anyone remembers what the Fed mandate is again?</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/inflation-peak-or-plateau-does-it-matter-20220511/“ target=“_blank“>Inflation peak or plateau? Does it matter?</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s a fine line to balance on for Chinese authorities at the moment as there is clearly growing unrest across the country. While the rest of the world is seeking to find ways to mitigate and live with the pandemic, China is sticking with its snap lockdowns and tight restrictions domestically and on travel.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There has been speculation recently that they might let up on that but in a state media interview, one of the government’s adviser on the Covid-19 response, Liang Wannian, has said that there is no specific timeline for an exit from current pandemic protocols.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>He says that „it is not scientifically possible to clearly delineate“ if the restrictions will be gradually relaxed after next year’s NPC. Adding that China „does not have a braking mechanism, and it’s very difficult to get the virus under control again if something happens after we reopen“.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Well, as long as China continues to stick with this, it’s like putting a bit of an anchor on the global economy in general. So, the related ongoing problems (manufacturing, supply chains, consumption decline) will still continue to play out across the world – adding to <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/monetary-policy-alone-just-isnt-cutting-it-in-china-20220815/“ target=“_blank“>continued worries domestically</a>.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p>OPEC MOMR (Oct): World oil demand growth forecasts revised down for 2022 and 2023 by 500k BPD and 400k BPD respectively</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2022/october/huw-pill-in-conversation-with-scdi“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Monetary policy: an anchor in challenging times – speech by Huw Pill</a></p><p>BoE Chief Economist Pill says at present, he is still inclined to believe that a significant monetary policy response will be required to the significant macro and market news of the past few weeks </p><p>“But I will see when we get to November how events have evolved in the meantime“. </p><p>Employment has stagnated and is now showing tentative signs of falling. </p><p>This will help to cool the labour market and contain some of the domestically-driven inflationary pressures that historically have threatened to become more persistent.</p><p>I Continue To Expect A Significant Monetary Policy Action At The Monetary Policy Committee’s Next Scheduled Meeting </p><p>Fiscal Announcements Will, On Balance, Provide A Further Stimulus To Demand Relative To Supply Over The Medium-Term, Monetary Policy Relevant Horizon </p><p>Volatile Market Dynamics That Followed The Announcement Of The Growth Plan Underline The Need To Bolster The Credibility Of The Wider Institutional Framework </p><p>It Is Welcome That The Role Played By The Office For Budget Responsibility (OBR) In Scrutinising The Government’s Fiscal Plans Will Be Resumed</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/g/gbp/“ target=“_blank“ id=“3a5ab7c1-ff09-45ea-87d4-eea6613bb754_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>GBP</a></p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1580157285745455106?s=20&t=qXHBJMqPQRnUP3yC8W_hlQ“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>The German government expects Europe’s largest economy to slide into recession next year as an energy crisis, rising prices and supply bottlenecks take their toll, its economy minister said</a></p><p>German economy minister: </p><p>WE WILL HAVE NEGATIVE GROWTH FIGURES IN Q3, Q4 THIS YEAR AND IN Q1 NEXT YEAR</p><p>ECONOMY WILL SLIDE INTO RECESSION, SEES 2023 GDP -0.4%</p><p>~ Nobody is surprised by this! </p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.