<p>The price of Bitcoin has seen two quick $14K declines recently with one in May and one in June. The declines were quick. The market price consolidated after the moves. </p><p>Since June 19, the price has been consolidating between $17592 and $25400. More recently, the price moved up to test a downward sloping trend line. The move did move above the falling 100 day MA (blue line on the chart above) but could not sustain momentum (the trend line instead stalled the rally). Buyers had their shot above the 100 day MA. They failed thanks to the trend line. </p><p>The digital currency has moved back down toward the June low at $17592. The low this week got within $1000 of the low. </p><p>My question is „Are we in for another run to the downside?“</p><p>Given the consolidation, since June 19, the market may be ready. As mentioned as well, the buyers had their shot to take the price above the 100 day MA, but found willing sellers at the trend line. Bearish. </p><p>If the price is to go lower, all bets would be off if the price were to go above the 100 day MA at $21268. That is near the trend line too. With the price at $18664, the risk is somewhat high up to $21268.</p><p> Is there a closer risk level?</p><p>Drilling to the hourly chart below, the highs over the last few days moved above the 200 hour MA on September 21 but failed. Again buyers had their shot and missed. The subsequent highs on September 22 and today found sellers closer to that MA line. </p><p>As a result that MA would be a closer risk level at $19379. Stay below is more bearish. Move above is more bullish (stop). That is the risk. </p><p> A lower stop in the short term might be $19084 which is where the 100 hour MA is found. Today, the price moved below that MA and stayed below. That too is bearish and might be a closer risk defining level for traders looking for a quick opportunity.</p><p>Admittedly, those stopped can be triggered on a sneeze in bitcoin, but the idea is „it is time“ The price action is talking to me. </p><p>Hey…. bitcoin is not the easiest to trade, but the technicals are technicals whether looking at Bitcoin, Microsoft, oil or GBPUSD. The chart looks bearish to me with defined risk against either the hourly or daily MA/trend line. The reward on a break to a new 2022 low could see the pair move toward the $11,000 area if the pair gets another head of steam behind it. </p><p>Time will tell but that is what the charts are saying to me. </p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-continues-to-run-hot-amid-sell-everything-mood-20220923/“>Dollar continues to run hot amid sell everything mood</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/markets-go-back-to-the-regular-scheduled-programming-20220923/“>Markets go back to the regular scheduled programming</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-budget-anything-but-mini-20220923/“>UK budget anything but „mini“</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-finance-minister-says-will-scrap-planned-increase-on-corporation-tax-20220923/“>UK finance minister says will scrap planned increase on corporation tax</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-september-flash-services-pmi-492-vs-500-expected-20220923/“>UK September flash services PMI 49.2 vs 50.0 expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-september-flash-services-pmi-489-vs-490-expected-20220923/“>Eurozone September flash services PMI 48.9 vs 49.0 expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdcny-pushes-past-710-as-yuan-decline-extends-further-20220923/“>USD/CNY pushes past 7.10 as yuan decline extends further</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>USD leads, GBP lags on the day</li><li>European equities lower; S&P 500 futures lower by 1.2%</li><li>US 10-year yields down 5.5 bps to 3.765%</li><li>Gold down 1.4% to $1,647.13</li><li>WTI crude down 3.5% to $80.61</li><li>Bitcoin down 1.8% to $18,893</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>After a frantic but historic day in markets yesterday, we are back to the regular scheduled programming today. It was pretty much a case of buy the dollar, sell everything else in European trading as markets settle down and stick to digesting the post-Fed narrative.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The pound was a notable mover as it tumbles by 2% at the lows against the dollar, with GBP/USD sliding below 1.1200 to 1.1020 on the day. That came despite the UK announcing its largest amount of tax cuts since 1972, in an effort to bolster the economy. UK rates surged higher but the currency continues to be routed despite the surprise. Emerging market much?</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, the dollar is running riot as EUR/USD fell to its lowest in 20 years – down 0.9% to 0.9750. USD/JPY was tentative early on but buyers are feeling a little more confident now, pushing the pair up from 142.20 to near 143.00 on the session.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, USD/CAD is testing waters above 1.3500 while AUD/USD is down 1% on the day to 0.6575 currently with NZD/USD also dropping by 1% to 0.5790 as the rout continues. There’s just no better place than the dollar right now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In other markets, bond yields shot higher after the UK budget announcement with Treasury yields also pulling higher across the curve. As for equities, the pressure continues with European indices selling off heavily and are down over 2% now while US futures are down over 1% ahead of the Wall Street open.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Commodities were not spared the drop with gold down over 1% to $1,647 while WTI crude is down over 3% and looking towards $80 next.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior 37</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That’s a big miss on estimates as the retail sales index tumbles to its lowest since April. Adding to the worries is that expected sales volume for the October month is seen declining to -13 after the jump in September (+31). With a technical recession already in place, it’s going to be a harrowing winter for the UK economy.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p>itcoin has gained 3.8% in the last 24
hours to $19.4K. Quotes have stabilised near the lower bound of the three-month
range. Ethereum gained temporary support after falling below $1300 and is up 6.7% in
24 hours. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>XRP jumped 28% overnight and 66% over the
week to $0.54, posting the highest gain among top-100 cryptocurrencies. There
are rumours that crypto whales have switched from ETH to XRP after the SEC and
Ripple Labs asked the court to speed up hearings for their case.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Other top altcoins are rising between 4.5%
(BNB) and 7.1% (DogeCoin).</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Despite this upward move, the technical
picture does not yet point to a break in the downtrend, and widespread monetary
policy tightening leads us to expect further pressure on markets.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the other hand, we see precious metal
prices rising with a 5% increase in crypto market capitalisation over the past
24 hours. This could be the start of a new trend, where investors are looking
at alternatives as a safe haven for capital due to concerns over the solvency
of countries.</p><p>News background</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Changpeng Zhao, CEO of the world’s largest
cryptocurrency exchange Binance, said bearish trends are common and healthy for
the crypto market. He said the crypto industry still has room to grow, while
inflation and rising energy prices have drawn attention to cryptocurrencies.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>According to Oklink, the recent drop in
Ethereum resulted from miners‘ activation. Mining pools have dropped almost
17,000 ETH in the last seven days alone.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The final version of the European Draft
Crypto Asset Markets Act (MiCA) equates NFTs with securities. Technically, the
MiCA is still open for amendments, but other reports suggest that the European
Union has finalised the bill’s full text.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As mentioned earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/markets-go-back-to-the-regular-scheduled-programming-20220923/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>, markets are going back to the regular scheduled programming after the major headlines from yesterday. The dollar is up across the board and pushing to fresh highs on the day now with GBP/USD down 1.5% to below 1.1100, even after the UK announced a massive fiscal package to try and bolster growth conditions.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, EUR/USD is down 0.9% to 0.9740 while USD/CAD is up 0.4% to above 1.3500, going in search of a test of its 61.8 Fib retracement level at 1.3651 next:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>AUD/USD is also down 1.1% to 0.6565 as key technical support cracks under the pressure of the surging greenback.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This comes as markets are returning back to the sell everything mood again, with equities falling further on the day. S&P 500 futures are down 0.9% while European indices are down 1.0% to 1.4% across the board. Meanwhile, bonds are also not spared following the surge higher in UK yields. 10-year Treasury yields are now up 6 bps to 3.765% as the rout from yesterday carries over.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In the commodities space, gold is down 0.9% to $1,656.13 while oil is down over 2% to $81.63 at the moment.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In total, the measures <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-finance-minister-says-will-scrap-planned-increase-on-corporation-tax-20220923/“ target=“_blank“>announced</a> will amount to £27 billion of tax cuts through the next fiscal year before rising to roughly £45 billion by 2026-27. That’s a huge reach as those tax cuts are the biggest since 1972.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The budget also massively benefits the UK’s wealthiest as the planned increase for corporation tax has been scrapped and bankers‘ bonuses will not be capped. Throw in the fact that those earning millions will also pay the same income tax rate as those on £50k earning, it’s a massive break from tradition for the Tories.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There’s also that 1% tax cut for the lower-to-middle class too but then again saving 1% on £30k earning is not really the same as compared to saving 5% on £150k and above now, is it? But if anything else, it highlights what the government is really focusing on here and that is to really bolster growth conditions – regardless of the cost (which in this case is £161 billion over 5 years).</p><p>UK bond yields are seeing a massive jump, with 2-year gilt yields up over 30 bps to 3.86% – its biggest daily jump since November 2009:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I think this meme captures very well the sentiment UK financial circles at the moment:</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-top-currency-diplomat-says-that-they-have-intervened-in-the-fx-market-20220922/“>Japan top currency diplomat says that they have intervened in the FX market</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-finance-minister-says-decided-to-intervene-after-examining-overall-trend-20220922/“>Japan finance minister says decided to intervene after examining overall trend</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/historic-moment-for-the-yen-but-is-it-enough-20220922/“>Historic moment for the yen but is it enough?</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-down-1-as-japan-intervenes-to-buy-the-yen-for-the-first-time-since-1998-20220922/“>USD/JPY tumbles as Japan intervenes to buy the yen for the first time since 1998</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/snb-raises-policy-rate-by-75-bps-to-050-as-expected-20220922/“>SNB raises policy rate by 75 bps to 0.50%, as expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/swiss-franc-weakens-as-snb-puts-an-end-to-the-negative-interest-rates-era-20220922/“>Swiss franc weakens as SNB puts an end to the negative interest rates era</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-raises-bank-rate-by-50-bps-to-225-as-expected-20220922/“>BOE raises bank rate by 50 bps to 2.25%, as expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/markets-pare-back-boe-rate-pricing-in-the-aftermath-of-the-policy-decision-20220922/“>Markets pare back BOE rate pricing in the aftermath of the policy decision</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bojs-kuroda-will-patiently-continue-powerful-monetary-easing-20220922/“>BOJ’s Kuroda: Will patiently continue powerful monetary easing</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bojs-kuroda-no-need-to-change-forward-guidance-at-the-moment-20220922/“>BOJ’s Kuroda: No need to change forward guidance at the moment</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-schnabel-we-must-further-increase-interest-rates-20220922/“>ECB’s Schnabel: We must further increase interest rates</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Markets:</p><ul><li>JPY leads, CHF lags on the day</li><li>European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.2%</li><li>US 10-year yields up 3.8 bps to 3.549%</li><li>Gold down 0.2% to $1,670.49</li><li>WTI crude up 1.2% to $83.92</li><li>Bitcoin up 1.1% to $19,140</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>What a wild day this has turned out to be (and we’re not done yet!) as the central bank bonanza this week was upstaged by Japan intervening to prop up the yen for the first time since June 1998.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The BOJ kept monetary policy unchanged and Kuroda delivered the usual snoozefest in his press conference before markets decided to push USD/JPY to fresh cycle highs above 145.00 going into European trading. The high touched 145.89 before it all came crashing down as Japan announced that they have intervened in the FX market to buy the yen.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>USD/JPY quickly fell to 142.50 before extending that drop to a low of 140.66 in highly volatile trading. There have been big swings in between then and now with the pair holding lower by 1.5% currently at 141.90 at the time of writing.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The retreat in USD/JPY also sparked a decline in the dollar elsewhere with EUR/USD inching up towards 0.9900 before slipping back down to 0.9860 currently. GBP/USD was up to 1.1350-60 early on before seeing gains erased to 1.1280-90 levels now after the BOE raised the bank rate by 50 bps, as anticipated.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The Swiss franc was the other big mover today as it crumbled after the SNB decided to raise its policy rate by 75 bps – meeting expectations but market pricing had it for a 100 bps move. I want to say that the Swiss central bank is also trying to smooth out the franc appreciation and this was the best time to have done that.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>EUR/CHF is up nearly 2% in a surge higher from 0.9470 to 0.9680 now with the high earlier touching 0.9715. USD/CHF is also up 1.6% to 0.9815 at the moment with the earlier high touching 0.9851 – testing key technical resistance as outlined <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/swiss-franc-weakens-as-snb-puts-an-end-to-the-negative-interest-rates-era-20220922/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, equities were taken for a ride with early losses in US futures turning into gains before being erased again now as we look towards the open in Wall Street. European indices are down markedly as they are playing catch up to the post-FOMC declines in US stocks yesterday.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But for the time being, the FX market is stealing the spotlight after a historic day in which Japan decided to take action to defend the yen currency for the first time in over 24 years.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The split in votes is one thing but with the fact that they are hinting at peak inflation coming in lower while offering up a maybe on tightening aggressively, it’s not exactly what the hawkish camp had hoped for. All of that covered <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-raises-bank-rate-by-50-bps-to-225-as-expected-20220922/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>And when you throw in the fact that market pricing did look for 75 bps and the BOE „only“ delivered 50 bps as per economists‘ expectations, it’s enough to dial back some of the future pricing for BOE tightening.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Coming into the decision, the OIS market had fully priced the bank rate to be at 3% by November. That has now dropped to pricing in ~75% odds of 2.75% instead now. Adding to that, there have been consistent pullbacks for the 2023 meeting dates for the BOE by roughly 25 bps across the curve as well.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The pound dropped from 1.1350 to 1.1280 initially before holding around 1.1300 now against the dollar. It’s not much of a sizable reaction as compared to the Swiss franc but the decision today will do little in terms of helping cable sustain any mildly positive momentum against the dollar if you compare this to how the Fed was yesterday.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-raises-bank-rate-by-50-bps-to-175-as-expected-20220804/“ target=“_blank“>Prior</a> 1.75%</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Bank rate vote 9-0* vs 9-0 expected (*Haskel, Mann, Ramsden voted for 75 bps, Dhingra voted for 25 bps)</li><li>Sterling has depreciated materially since August</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Uncertainty around the outlook for UK retail energy prices has fallen after government’s energy support plan</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Consumer spending is likely to have peaked in this quarter</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Peak inflation is now likely to be lower than projected in August, at just under 11% in October</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Policy is not on a pre-set path</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Should the outlook suggest more persistent inflationary pressures, including from stronger demand, BOE will respond forcefully, as necessary</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2022/september-2022″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full statement</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There’s a bit of give and take in the latest policy decision by the BOE here. The split in votes obviously don’t help to give markets a sense of confidence on their resolve to tighten aggressively. Add that to the fact that market pricing had considered a 75 bps rate hike but we only got 50 bps, as per what economists expected.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But the good news comes from the fact that the BOE is offering up a more optimistic outlook on inflation. As for economic activity, they see Q3 GDP as being -0.1% q/q and that will infer a technical recession in the UK. But on the balance of things, the brighter inflation outlook perhaps matters more as they view peak inflation to be lower now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Besides that, there is a subtle change to the forward guidance, which I would perceive to be offering them flexibility to act less aggressively i.e. move back to 25 bps rate hikes. In August, they noted that:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“The Committee will be particularly alert to indications of more persistent inflationary pressures, and will if necessary act forcefully in response.“</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Today, the statement reads:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“Should the outlook suggest more persistent inflationary pressures, including from stronger demand, the Committee will respond forcefully, as necessary.“</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It ties to their peak <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation/“ target=“_blank“ id=“ad51a5a2-1afc-4f42-9e62-ea6faf6f90fa_5″ class=“terms__main-term“>inflation</a> view coming lower and while it’s no major change in policy stance, it is a subtle one as the words should and suggest do give them some leeway to work with moving forward.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The backlash against the swissie is continuing to play out in the aftermath of the SNB policy decision earlier today. The Swiss central bank hiked its policy rate by 75 bps, as expected, but markets had sought to price in a 100 bps move going into the decision.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That saw a quick surge lower in the franc, with EUR/CHF moving up from 0.9470 to 0.9600 before pulling higher now to 0.9700. After the BOJ, one has to wonder if the SNB also has a part to do with the latest move in the market today as the franc falls to its lowest since 12 September against the euro.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Now, after their policy shift in June, the SNB has been a key driver for the franc appreciation over the past few months in a fall from 1.0500 at the time to 0.9500 this week. One can argue that perhaps there is some scope for a retracement but on the balance of things, the landscape for EUR/CHF hasn’t changed.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The question now is whether the SNB will keep following up on more aggressive rate hikes and I would point to their higher inflation forecasts today as being a suggestion that the likelihood remains high.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.