<p>Bloomberg reports that UK businesses will get their energy bills cut in half in a government bailout package.</p><p>The market has been assuming that some kind of business bailout was coming and I’m not sure this is good enough. Consumer bills will be capped at £2500 and that same largess was never going to come to businesses but I suspect more than this was anticipated.</p><p>I’ve been arguing that we’re starting to see the covid playbook from governments, where they take on all the financial risk of the crisis rather than letting businesses and consumers suffer. Instead, it’s evolving into more of a covid-lite approach. Given that central banks are also raising rates and hurting the economy, it might not be enough to stave off a tough recession.</p><p>Cable is largely unmoved on this news but earlier today it trade to the lowest since 1985.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>The implied odds of a 100 bps Fed hike are sitting at 25% today after dipping to 21% yesterday on softer core retail sales.</p><p>The main item on the agenda today is the UMich consumer sentiment survey at 10 am ET. The prior reading was 55.1 and the consensus is 60.0 as sentiment often tracks gasoline prices.</p><p>The market will also be closely watching 1-year and 3-5 year inflation expectations. They’ve dipped lately and a continuation lower would give the Fed some minor comfort.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>The always awesome US Market Open roundup via Newsquawk</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://newsquawk.com/daily/article/?id=2640-us-market-open-eurobourses-see-the-deepest-losses-whilst-the-ftse-100-is-cushioned-by-the-slide-in-the-pound&utm_source=newsquawk&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_content=us-open“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Note – incl Podcast</a></p><ul><li>Euro-bourses see the deepest losses whilst the FTSE 100 is cushioned by the slide in the Pound</li></ul><ul><li>GBP extended losses in wake of significantly weaker than forecast ONS retail sales data, with Cable sliding to the lowest level since 1985</li></ul><ul><li>10yr T-note is almost flat ahead of preliminary Michigan sentiment which will be watched closely for inflation expectations</li></ul><ul><li>China will impose sanctions on CEO of Raytheon Technologies (RTX) and CEO of Boeing (BA) Defense, Space & Security</li></ul><ul><li>Looking ahead, highlights include US University of Michigan Prelim., Quad Witching</li></ul>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>Euro Zone Inflation Confirmed At 9.1% As Energy, Food Prices Surge</p><p>Eurozone CPI for August Final Readings:MoM</p><p>Act: 0.7%Prev: 0.2%Fcst: 0.6% </p><p>YoY</p><p>Act: 5.5%Prev: 5.1%Fcst: 5.5% </p><p>To stress, these are the final readings of the August data, so the market impact is negligible </p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>Press outlet, Kyodo, is reporting that Japan is to use 3.5 trln yen in reserve funds for economic measures </p><p>- This comes after comments yesterday, from a senior Japanese ruling party official, suggesting a stimulus package of more than 30 trillion yen ($208.97 billion) is needed to address inflationary pressures in Japan’s economy – <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-ruling-party-exec-urges-209-bln-stimulus-combat-inflation-weak-yen-sankei-2022-09-15/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Story</a></p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>Market picture</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Bitcoin has lost 1.6% over
the last 24 hours to $19,777 amid renewed pressure on risk-sensitive assets.
BTC remains just under the critical $20K round level, where it got support for
the past three months.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Ethereum
lost the speculative support it received before the move to PoS. Over the last
day, Ether lost 8.6%, more than three times more than the 2.6% reduction in
overall crypto capitalisation. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Weakness of
this kind is an almost inevitable consequence of a previous period of
overperformance, much of the gains of which have yet to be erased. Trading at
$1500, Ether is now almost 50% above the area of the June-July lows, while
Bitcoin has rolled back to its lows of that period.</p><p>News background</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Tether and
Bitfinex technical director Paolo Ardoino said the move to PoS will not help
the second cryptocurrency catch up to Bitcoin. The Merge will not lower
transaction fees or make ETH more decentralised, nor will it increase network
capacity. Ethereum cannot compete with BTC as a form of money because it has no
maximum issue limit.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>According to
Santiment, more than 45% of Ethereum nodes launched after The Merge update are
managed by just two addresses, raising concerns crypto community concerns about
centralisation.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>According to
Chainalysis, developing countries are leading the world in cryptocurrency
adoption. Vietnam and the Philippines lead the rankings due to the popularity
of cryptocurrency and NFT gaming projects. Of the developed countries, only the
US and China are in the top 10, ranking fifth and 10th, respectively.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This article was written by <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.fxpro.com/“ target=“_blank“>FxPro</a>’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at forexlive.com.

<p>Kwasi Kwarteng will deliver his emergency mini-budget to bring in winter tax cuts for millions of people and set out more detail on energy support next Friday, according to sources. </p><p>as reported by the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/15/kwasi-kwarteng-to-deliver-emergency-mini-budget-on-23-september“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Guardian</a></p><p>In the mini-budget, the government is expected to confirm plans to reverse the recent rise in national insurance, even though it benefits higher earners the most, handing back about £1,800 a year to top earners while the lowest earners get about £7 a year.</p><p>The interesting issue here is that the BoE won’t have this to react to, as the BoE rate announcement is the day before on the 22ns Sept</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/g/gbp/“ target=“_blank“ id=“3a5ab7c1-ff09-45ea-87d4-eea6613bb754_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>GBP</a></p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>As usual, when I’m on deck, I try and get a few far more intelligent people than me, who owe me favours, to give you guys some writeups..So here is my friend, and Nat Gas expert, <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/andrepaltry“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Andrea Paltry</a> of <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/NatGasWeather“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>NatGasWeather.com</a> with a great note: </p><p>TTF and European natural gas Supply/Demand balance</p><p>Finally, we’ve overtaken the 80% level of storage at EU level. In some countries, like Germany, we are close to 88% (see the chart below). Yes, we are talking about natural gas and this stock level has not been reached in the cheapest way possible. Indeed, assessing TTF front contracts movement over the past month or so, we can easily see the highest volatility ever. Indeed, September contract price touched euro 350 per MwH in the last day of trading before collapsing up to reach euro 200 per MwH after the rollover into the actual most traded October’22 one. Why this movement? Speculation like most of the people think? Actually, there is an explanation related to Supply/Demand balance and to the level of stocks we’ve reached. Indeed, all the operators (private, quasi-government etc), in order to get this 80% threshold level, massively buy every marginal physical molecule in the spot market to store it, exploiting the spot-first forward contract contango shape. If we buy every single marginal unit of gas, in a non-coordinated way, both the spot price and the forward curve spike. What I mean is that we reached what people define a ‘safe level’ of natural gas European storage, but it was expensive and, in any case, is within the five year average.</p><p>Now, what’s next? Are we in a safe condition to go through the winter time? Here several points need to be analyzed. </p><p>First of all, even if reach the 100% level of storage, we need flows. Indeed, the storage level in different countries are around 20-30% of total consumptions and we usually use them to tackle the peak of heating demand. The flows, along with the production, are needful. Right now, Russian pipeline gas amounts to 9% of total EU imports. Someone can think it’s a very thin level compared to 40%, and it’s true, however, this marginal gas is pretty important and very difficult to substitute since LNG imports is almost maxed out. With Nord Stream 1 pipeline indefinitely closed, Sudzha pipeline will be primary important. If we reduce also this import, TTF price can indefinitely jump until demand is reduced. We just talk about pipeline because we are getting Russian LNG imports in Spain (and it has increased over the last months).</p><p>Second, LNG imports. Right now, we blame TTF price and <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/v/volatility/“ target=“_blank“ id=“2609246a-4784-4a6a-8760-a49c8e71ef4f_2″ class=“terms__main-term“>volatility</a>, but the same TTF is what allowed us to fill the storage. If we assess below charts, we can easily see the top US LNG destinations in June 2022 versus the period 2016-2022. The spread TTF-JKM allowed us to get most of the LNG exports and to fill the storage. We need this spread for all the winter, we need high prices in order to get flows, waiting for Freeport resuming (likely in November, and we will get 2.2 bcf/day more).</p><p>Third, weather. Even if we keep all the flows from Russia via pipeline and even if we maximize the flows from other important countries like Norway and Algeria (Transmed) and even if we keep this LNG imports all the winter, we need at least normal weather. If we experience heating degrees 2 or 3 standard deviation higher than 10 year average, the situation will not be pretty down the road and we would need a huge amount of rationing. Therefore, closely watch weather and heating degrees from mid October.</p><p>Andrea PaltrinieriAssociate Professor of Banking and Finance, Università Cattolica del Sacro CuoreNatgasweather and Energy Working analyst</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>Reuters are reporting some possible good news for on the U.S. railway strike sagaU.S. railway parties have agreed to a cooling off period as standard part of the ratification process after reaching a tentative deal overnight, a move that would avert any shutdown in case unions fail to ratify it, a source familiar with the situation said on Thursday.</p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden called negotiators around 9 p.m. Wednesday night as talks continued in a move the source said was „crucial“ as talks progressed for 20 hours into the night.</p><p>As a reminder, almost 30% of cargo in the U.S. travels by rail, and with harvest season upon us, a nationwide strike would be very damaging </p><p>Full story via Reuters available on <a target=“_blank“ href=“PiQSuite.com/Suite“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>PiQSuite.com</a></p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>The Sept. 15 Ethereum Merge lowers Ethereum’s energy use by apx 99%, making it greener than Bitcoin. This significant update for a top crypto coin may soon turbocharge Ether’s price and boost mainstream acceptance.</p><p>Many are wondering if it is time to buy Ethereum. I can not answer that question, that is for you to decide. My personal opinion is that it is worth a shot, in terms of the REWARD vs RISK. How does one do that? Watch the Ethereum technical analysis below, on the day of the Merge!</p><p>Trade Ethereum at your own risk only. Merge back with ForexLive.com for additional interesting perspectives.</p>

This article was written by Itai Levitan at forexlive.com.