Inflation is the rate
at which the cost of goods and services in each economy rises. Inflation can
have a detrimental influence on society if it means higher prices for
fundamental necessities like food. Inflation can affect almost every commodity
or service, including necessities like housing, food, medical services, and
utilities, as well as luxuries like cosmetics, automobiles, and jewellery. Once
inflation has spread across an economy, people and companies alike are
concerned about the possibility of inflationary pressures.

As a result of
inflation, money saved today loses some of its value. Inflation reduces a
person’s buying power and can even make it difficult to retire. For example, if
an investor gained 5% on stock and bond investments, but the inflation rate was
3%, the investor only gained 2% in real terms.

The Consumer Price
Index (CPI) is a widely used index for measuring inflation, as it tracks
changes in the prices paid by consumers for a set of goods and services over
time. Food and beverage, housing, clothes, transportation, medical care,
recreation, education, and communication are the eight main categories of goods
and services.

Inflation is more
likely to have a profound negative impact on a currency’s value and foreign
exchange rate than it is to have a significant positive impact. A low rate of
inflation does not ensure a good exchange rate for a country, but a high rate
is very likely to adversely impact the country’s exchange rates with other
countries.

Exchange rates can be
impacted by interest rates because they are a direct result of inflation.
Countries try to keep interest rates and inflation under check, but the
interplay between the two is complicated to control.

Low-interest rates
encourage consumer spending and economic growth, and they have a beneficial
impact on currency value in general. If consumer spending increases to the
point that demand outstrips supply, inflation may ensue, albeit this isn’t
always a bad thing. On the other hand, low-interest rates rarely draw outside investment.
Higher interest rates are more likely to garner foreign investment, which
increases demand for a country’s currency.

However, there is no
universal formula that can be followed because the relationship between
inflation and share prices is not simple. An in-depth examination of each
stock’s unique traits is necessary for wise trading or investment plan.

Long-term, ownership of
stock might serve as a hedge against inflation for investors. This means that, despite rising
prices, the “actual” wealth that a stock or share portfolio stores – the
commodities or services it can be swapped for – may increase in value over an inflationary
era.

When inflation is
caused by increasing input costs (sometimes referred to as cost-push
inflation), for instance, revenues may rise, and typical profit rates may
return once firms have had enough time to adapt to the inflationary pressures
and raise their prices.

Analysts contend that
the short-term dynamic is less beneficial and that there is frequently an
inverse correlation between equities, prices, and inflation – meaning that
stock values fall as inflation rises or rise as inflation declines. Numerous
variables could contribute to inflation’s short-term negative impact on stock
values.

During the period of
higher inflation, value equities have outperformed growth and income stocks in the near run. Whether you are
taking a long or short-term perspective, though, will affect how you react to
an increase in inflation.

By allowing your
portfolio to gradually pass on rising prices to consumers, long-term investors
may protect the value of their capital and hedge against inflation. Evidence
suggests that rising inflation also tends to enhance stock market volatility,
which may present short-term traders with opportunities to buy or short-sell
equities.

As we have often
observed, it is not always the case. Despite an increase in the minimum wage,
recent income increases on average have lagged the general increase in the cost
of products.

One’s money management
may benefit from being aware of the rate of price increases over time. Here are
some suggestions for combating inflation.

Investing in some stocks
can be an effective approach to fight inflation, considering the lack of
confidence most people have toward markets. Consider your home as a business. A
business will experience inflation if it is unable to wisely spend its funds in
ventures that will provide greater returns than its costs. The fundamental
tenet of a successful business is that companies will sell their products for
higher prices, which will eventually result in higher revenues, earnings, and
stock prices.

An investment that is
regarded as protecting the diminished purchasing power of a currency as a
result of its value being lost owning to rising prices as a result of inflation
or macroeconomic growth is known as an inflation hedge. Purchasing an asset
with the expectation that it would hold or improve in value over tie is the
norm. An alternative to this is to take a larger position in assets, which may
depreciate less quickly than the value of the currency. Eg; Singapore’s central bank further
tightened monetary settings and raised its inflation forecast, sending the
currency higher. The SGD rallied the most in almost a month after the decision,
before trading up 0.4% at S$1.3564 as of 9:07 a.m. local time.

Real estate is always a
wise investment. Problems arise when a buyer intends to sell the property they
just purchased for a profit. Although skilled real estate investors can uncover
hidden values in houses, the average buyer should concentrate on buying a home
to stay in it for at least a few years. Similar to land, the value of homes
typically rises on an annual basis – offsetting the impacts of inflation.

Consider investing in
inflation-linked bonds if you want to try and guard your funds against
inflation. Simply said, if you invest in an ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) that
invests in inflation-linked bonds, for instance, you will gain exposure to
bonds whose principal will rise in line with the consumer price index. This
implies that as inflation rises, the value of the instrument increases. Of
course, there is a risk that if inflation declines, the value would as well.
Additionally, rising interest rates will hurt inflation-protected bonds.

Whether it is accurate
or not, gold is frequently used as an inflation hedge, a solid way to guard
against the risk of losing buying power. However, precious metals might not be
the greatest choice in that situation. Some gold investors overlook the metal’s
volatility and potential cost, while others fail to foresee the necessity for
storage and other logistical challenges that come with gold ownership.

Also, use this time to
review your savings plan in addition to developing an investment strategy
appropriate for an inflationary period. You should prioritise cash in your
reevaluations. Although keeping cash on hand may seem like a „secure“
solution, cash is more vulnerable to inflation and buying power risk than
investments with a wider range of securities. It is strongly advised to stop
carrying cash or to make sure that it is maintained in a high-yield savings
account.

Investing in yourself
is by far the finest investment you can
make to be ready for an unpredictable financial future. one that will boost
your potential income in the future.

This investment starts
with high-quality education like seminars, and webinars
and continues with maintaining current skills and picking up new ones that will
correspond to the ones that will be most in-demand in the not-too-distant
future. Being able to adapt to a company’s shifting needs could help you
protect not only your career but also your compensation against inflation and
economic downturns.

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This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

Major currencies aren’t doing a whole lot as traders are keeping their focus on the US retail sales data later today. After yesterday’s wild ride, there is a particular importance to today’s report considering that it will provide some outline on a potential 75 bps or 100 bps rate hike by the Fed in less than two weeks‘ time.

The dollar was mostly steady earlier but is seen slightly softer in the last hour or so. That said, the moves aren’t anything too significant.

EUR/USD was lingering around 1.0020-30 before moving up to 1.0050 currently. Of note, price is holding above its 100-hour moving average at 1.0039 but it’s all about what the data release has to offer later today.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY remains down 0.1% to 138.75 and is little changed overall. USD/CHF is down 0.5% to just under 0.9800 though as the franc is the top performer on the day so far.

Elsewhere, USD/CAD is down 0.3% to 1.3075 and that is seeing price start to push back towards the broken resistance region around 1.3076-83 this week:

That will be a crucial level to watch before the close this week.

Looking at other markets, equities are holding slightly higher with European indices playing catch up to the late rebound in Wall Street yesterday. The mood is helped by slight gains in US futures with S&P 500 futures up 13 points, or 0.3%, currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• ECB has to act accordingly based on that
• Each euro state has its own responsibility for its own economic policy
• It may be that we will see a very difficult period in Italy amid political turmoil

Nothing too interesting from Rehn but it does highlight the challenges for ECB policymakers when making any decision. In essence, the central bank has to try and backstop Italy amid fragmentation risks as they try to normalise policy in the fight against inflation.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Rehn just offering up a reminder in case anyone forgot what the ECB will be up to at its next two policy meetings. All of this has already been priced in, so carry on as you will.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• BTCUSD is stuck in a range for the last 30 days, stopping out swing traders that short it, or go long, unless those traders are exiting at the bottom and top of that range
• Long terms players of the crypto king can improve their forecasting ability by looking at the price levels mentioned in the below simple technical analysis video for BTCUSD, but they must also look at the close of the daily candles
• The ones that would like a stronger confirmation, will also wait to see the candle that follows that close. If it is not in the same direction and does not close well, they should wait
• All this provides bitcoin watchers a tigher range and method to assess where the crypto leader will tend to go, up or down
• Last but not least, this does not mean that you should not have a stop and take profit, from there onwards

Trade Bitcoin at your own risk. Visit ForexLive for technical analysis.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

It’s not a good look to start earnings season with JP Morgan warning of tough times ahead. On the one hand, rising rates should result in lending activity becoming more profitable but a looming recession does not bode well for the growth outlook and the fact that the bank is building up reserves exemplifies that narrative.

Jamie Dimon’s remarks are often worth watching on earnings day and he is warning that high inflation and waning consumer confidence are going to have a significant toll on the global economy some time down the road. He adds that the bank is also suspending share buybacks temporarily and that is seeing the stock fall by 3% in pre-market at the moment.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Inflation
has been a hot topic for quite some time now and it ultimately led the central
banks like the Federal Reserve to start fighting it aggressively as it turned
out to be more persistent and entrenched than the Fed expected. Without price
stability an economy cannot grow, and this is why controlled inflation is a
central bank’s most important goal.

In fact,
such a high inflation eroded consumers’ purchasing power so much that their
sentiment about the economy is the lowest on record. Consumer spending makes up
for 70% of US GDP and this is why a depressed consumer is bad for the economy
as a whole as they’re going to spend less and less, ultimately leading to
recession.

The market
now is shifting its focus to recession. “History tells us that the Fed has
never accomplished a soft landing when inflation surpassed 5%” as the famous
billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller noted recently at a conference.
Besides that, many other indications point to a recession being pretty much
certain. The stock market is in a bear market, the yield curve is inverted, consumers
sentiment is at record low, inflation is still high, we can see big losses in
commodities sensitive to global growth like copper, a very strong US Dollar, an
aggressive tightening by the Fed and leading components in the PMIs in
contractionary territory.

Everything
says that the US may be already in a recession or heading into one soon. To
bring down inflation at this point a recession is welcomed as demand will be
lowered. One thing that the Fed cannot do though is pausing or even start
cutting interest rates until inflation is clearly on a sustained downward path.
The risk is that they will pivot too early and fail to bring inflation to their
2% target settling at a higher rate.

It may sound
good if they settle at a higher rate, say 3%, but that will signal to the
market that they are not serious about achieving 2% anymore and lead to other
worse consequences like loss of credibility. That’s why in my opinion they will
stay the course until the data shows that the disinflation will bring the rate to
2% and they can pause or start cutting interest rates.

This article
was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

It’s starting to look a bit rough for stocks at the moment as the fallout from the US CPI data continues to reverberate.

S&P 500 futures are down to the lows for the day, dropping by nearly 1% now as risk starts to falter in European morning trade. Regional indices are also caught in the crossfire with the DAX now down 0.9%, CAC 40 down 1.2%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB leading the declines with a drop of 2.2% – not helped by domestic political uncertainty.

After the Bank of Canada decision yesterday and Fed policymakers opening the door to a 100 bps move as well, it is spooking markets a little amid prospects of major central banks frontloading rate hikes in a more aggressive manner.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has kicked things into overdrive in Europe this year and the economic landscape remains rather dire when you look at how things are developing at the moment. Parity beckons for EUR/USD and we’ve already seen EUR/CHF tumble below 1.00 after the SNB policy pivot last month. It’s tough to find much relief for the euro and here are reasons why.

1. Inflation pressures are still surging across the region

Sure, German inflation may have seen a bit of a moderation in June but near 8% inflation is still extremely high with Spanish inflation even surpassing 10% last month. As mentioned before, there is a difference between inflation peaking and inflation hitting a plateau.

The latter seems likely for most parts of the world dealing with surging price pressures and Europe is no different. The fact that oil prices and natural gas prices are set to remain elevated going into winter will only exacerbate the pain.

2. A recession beckons

The key question now will be how bad will the recession in Europe look like. As inflation takes a toll on consumption and surging price pressures grip business activity, it is looking bleak once we get past the summer sunshine. There is no easy fix and if Russia seeks to restrict supply of gas to Europe, I fear that it will shape up to be a rather harsh recession – particularly in the latter stages of the year.

3. Fragmentation risks on the cards

The ECB may be able to deal with this with their „resolve“ but at the end of the day, they need some solution to get the monkey off their back. I doubt policymakers will be helpless in letting a debt crisis spiral but they will lose some face in trying to convince markets that they can raise interest rates while ridding themselves of some form of easy policy – which have been a mainstay over the past decade.

QE but not QE seems to be what they will go with but we will see how things play out in practice.

4. The ECB suddenly looks behind the curve again

For all the talk by ECB policymakers on tightening policy, they are still yet to officially raise interest rates amid the whole inflation debate globally. As other major central banks step up their game, the ECB’s plan to raise rates by 25 bps this month and then 50 bps in September suddenly looks rather ‚lame‘.

The new meta this week suggests that 100 bps is the next hot pick and the ECB is once again being left behind. As markets rush to price in a more aggressive Fed and more frontloading by other major central banks, the ECB’s lack of flexibility is not helping the euro’s plight considering that they are not able to come together for a more aggressive tightening push.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The yen continues to implode as traders are using the US CPI data this week as a catalyst for a push higher in USD/JPY once again. It’s not a perfect excuse but the timing fits as the data mainly reaffirmed that the ongoing narrative over the past two to three months is very well vindicated still at this stage.

That is enough to give USD/JPY another boost after weeks of a struggle to shake off a firm break above 135.00.

The push higher in Treasury yields today is also helping, with 10-year yields up 8 bps to 2.985% on the day. As much as there was a negative reaction for yields yesterday, it is hard to imagine a material climb down in rates so long as the market focus remains on a more aggressive Fed.

We may have seen a peak in yields already but a reversal of the trend is still something that may be a bit of a reach, unless traders start to turn their attention towards rate cuts and more material risks of a recession in the months ahead.

Either way, the technicals continue to do the talking – much better than Japanese authorities – in USD/JPY and 140.00 beckons now as price trades above 139.00 to its highest in over two decades.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.