Friday report on a Barclays note eyeing EUR/USD under 1.00. Not that’s 1.00 is too far away!
„If Russia closes its gas taps (to Europe), we expect EURUSD to fall below parity,“ 

„Our economists estimate that a total loss of Russian supplies, combined with rationing of the remainder, could dent euro area GDP by more than 5 percentage points over one year“.
The heightened concern over supply of Russian gas into Europe has been ongoing for weeks/months since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. As for euro, its been heavy all year with monetary policy divergence between a tightening Federal Reserve and a much more hesitant European Central Bank also a factor. 
EUR/USD:

Iraq’s state-run North Oil Company spoke with a media outlet on Saturday, saying a Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) force had seized two oil wells in Bai Hassan oilfield in northern Kirkuk.

Reuters follow up with 

the Kurdish government denied „all allegations and rumours which claim that the regional government had occupied and took over oilfields in Bai Hassan … with the support of an armed force“.

Something to keep an eye on come oil trade reopening on Monday morning (Asia time, Sunday evening US time)

MUFG recommends selling AUD/JPY in a new trade this week and also re-emphasizes its call for buying EUR/GBP.
In AUD/JPY, they recommend selling at spot at 89.50 with a target of 84.50 and a stop at 92.50.
„We are recommending a new short AUD/JPY trade idea to reflect our view that the curret period of risk aversion is likely to extend further in the near-term,“ MUFG notes. 
„We believe there is room for the JPY to continue to rebound in light of short positioning and stretched valuations. The AUD alongside other commodity currencies are coming under more selling pressure as global growth fears intensify,“ they wrote.
They also maintain a long EUR/GBP trade with a target at 0.8800 and a stop at 0.8440. Spot is at 0.8500.For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.

Luna — recently at top-5 crypto — has imploded down to nearly nothing. It’s been shattered along with a disastrous plan to use it to back the UST stablecoin. Both are in shambles.
Yet the amount of people I’m seeing say some variation of this is sky high, both online and in my real life.

This isn’t to say that it can’t go for 1-cent to 10-cents. Money can be made in any kind of market.
The bigger lesson is that trying to catch a falling knife is a terrible habit.
It’s a psychological flaw in nearly all new traders. As humans, we benchmark things. We have a sense of what gasoline should cost, what an apple should cost and hundreds of other things. When things ‚go on sale‘ we tend to want to buy them because humans have a deeply ingrained fear of scarcity.
Who among us didn’t think of ways to stockpile gasoline at the depths of 2020?
I real life these are generally good instincts and habits.
The problem is that we then transpose this to financial assets, especially ones without intrinsic value.
Currencies are one of the most-powerful examples of this. For a generation, traders relied on cable gravitating to 1.60. When it go too high, it was time to sell, when it got too low it was time to buy. If you went offside you could hunker down and wait it out.
It worked from the mid-1980s to the mid-2010s… a 30-year stretch.

In the currency market, there is some basis for that kind of thinking. The relationships between strong, developed economies rarely shift dramatically over a few years. There’s some mean reversion built in. But the combination of Brexit, the economic malaise in continental Europe and US dominance in technology appears to have broken the regime.
In assets without intrinsic value, or a strong floor, betting on mean reversion is diasterous. Just because something has fallen doesn’t mean it will bounce back. It’s like the periods of bizarre buying we’ve seen in bankrupt companies.
In a stock, you can find a level of price-to-earnings (hopefully forward earnings), where there’s a floor. Cash flows are cash flows and that’s intrinsic value.
But far, far too often traders think that because something has fallen from 200 to 100 that it will bounce back, even if the economic situation has changed.
Trading is often about habits and the better habit is to sell things that are falling and to buy things that are rising. If something is at an all-time high or an all-time low, it’s there for a reason.
This seems to be a lesson the new traders need to learn over and over. The trend is your friend. Resist whatever urge you have to buy things that are ‚cheap‘ unless you have a strong and reasonable basis of value or a reason for a turn. Even then, what’s the rush? Let it level out first. Let the other guy have the first leg of gains.
It’s an emotional market right now. Don’t get caught in this classic trap.

himRebound. US stocks move higher today, but still down on the week
Silver trades to the lowest level since July 2020 on dollar buying and bearish technicals
WTI crude oil futures settle at $110.49
Oil is now higher for the week. Why that’s so remarkable
Baker Hughes US oil rig count 563 vs 557 prior
Fed’s Mester: Inflation risks to the upside given Ukraine war/China lockdown
European major indices close with solid gains
More from Kashkari: Inflation is much too high
Fed’s Kashkari: We will do what we need to do to bring inflation down
Rising yields highlight the difficult backdrop
UMich May prelim consumer sentiment 59.1 vs 64.0 expected
Gold falls through $1800 to the lowest since early February
The AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins
US April import prices 0.0% m/m vs +0.6% expected
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar lightly lower, risk bounces

It was Friday the 13th but the day was not a scary one for the markets. After sharp declines in the US stocks, bond yields and crypto coming into the day, today saw stocks rebound, yields moved back higher and bitcoin even rallied.
Fundamentally, however, there was a scare as the UMichigan preliminary consumer sentiment tumbled to 59.1 vs 64.0 estimate. That was the lowest level in 10 years.
Looking at the components they 2 showed weakness with current conditions in the expectations both falling sharply and inflation expectations remaining steady at high levels:

Current conditions 63.6 vs 70.5 expected
Expectations 56.3 vs 63.0 expected
1-year inflation expectations 5.4% vs 5.4% prior
5-10 year inflation expectations 3.0% vs 3.0% prior

In the forex market today, the USD retraced some of the gains seen of late. The greenback moved lower vs. all the major currencies with the exception of the JPY.

The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies

The AUD, CAD and NZD were the strongest of the majors as risk on sentiment increased. The JPY – which traded to yet another 20 year high on Monday before reversing to the downside on Tuesday to Thursday, rebounded back higher today on the increased risk tone and exit out of the relative safety of the JPY.
In other markets:

Spot gold fell another $10.89 -0.61% at $1811.72. The low price today did below the $1800 level for the 1st time since February 4. Last Friday, the price closed at $1882.99. The decline rate presents a 3.82% the fall for the current week.
Silver rebounded today after the short fall this week. the spot level rose $0.41 or 2.06% $21.07. That compares to a close a week ago at $22.33. The $1.26 decline represents a -5.6% fall for the week.
WTI crude oil futures are trading at $110.13 near the 5 PM level. That’s up around $4.03 on the day. The settlement price for the week was at $110.49

.
In the US stock market, the sentiment was more positive today after the S&P index got within a whisker of -20% from the all-time high during yesterday’s trade (at the low for the week, they S&P was down -19.92%).
The gains today were led by the NASDAQ index which rose 3.82%. The NASDAQ index has been hit the hardest in the move down in 2022 with the index reaching a low of –31.48% from the all-time high at session lows yesterday. The broader NASDAQ and S&P index were still lower for the 6th consecutive week, while the Dow industrial average fell for the 7th consecutive week.
In trading today, the major indices all gapped higher and did not trade lower on the day which was a breath of fresh air.

US stock indices closed higher today

In the US debt market, after declines from Monday’s highs into today’s trading, the yields along the yield curve saw a rebound back to the upside. Fed members this week continued to stress that rates would go higher until they reached a more neutral level around 2.5%. With the current yield at 1.0%, that leaves room for at least another 150 basis points. Most expressed the desire to raise ratees by 50 basis points the next 2 meetings. After that there is some debate. Fed’s Bullard, the most hawkish of members, said this week that he would like to see to the Fed to tighten to 3.5% by the end of the year. Others are more in the 2.5% camp but would be willing to increase the rates if warranted. This week, the CPI data showed a higher than expected increase (although the rate was lower from the previous month).  With crude oil prices higher and gasoline price also moving higher ahead of the Memorial Day holiday, the hopes for relief from lower oil prices does not seem encouraging.  That could lead to a more tight Fed, but could also lead to slower growth at the same time.

US yields moved higher

 Hope you all have  a good weekend.  Thank you for your support.

The major US stock indices are closing sharply higher on the day. That’s good news. The not so good news is that for the week they are all lower.For the NASDAQ and S&P index the index closed lower for the 6th consecutive week. For the Dow industrial average fell for the 7th consecutive week. The final numbers for the day are showing:Dow industrial average up 466.36 points or 1.47% at 32196.67S&P index up 93.81 points or 2.39% at 4023.90NASDAQ index up 434.05 points or 3.82% at 11805.01Russell 2000 up 53.28 points or 3.06% in 1792.66For the trading week:Dow industrial average fell -2.14%S&P index fell -2.40%NASDAQ index fell -2.81%.From all time highs:Dow industrial average is down -12.87%. The low the index was down -15.49% from the all-time high to the site below.S&P index is down -16.49%. At the low the index was down -19.92%, just short of the bear market level at -20.0%NASDAQ index is down -27.18%. At the low this week the index was down -31.48%.

Silver falls to lowest level since July 2020 The price of silver has been on a sharp move to the downside. Since it’s last peak at $26.21, the price has been down 16 of the last 18 trading days. Today, the price made a new cycle low but has seen a rebound and trades higher on the day. The low price today reached $20.46 before rebounding. The price is currently at $20.99 . The run from the high on April 18 to low today subtracted $5.75 from the price or near -22%. The sharply higher dollar along with negative technicals have helped to push the price lower. Technically, looking at the daily chart above, on April 25 the price fell below the converged 100 and 200 day moving averages. Earlier on March 30, the price bounced off its 200 day moving average. The fall below both it and the 100 and 200 day MA turned the buyers to sellers. More recently, this week the price fell below a technical area between $21.429 and $22.01. It would now take a move above that swing area to give the buyers a victory. Absent that and the sellers are more in control. Drilling to the hourly chart below, the trend to the downside has been able to stay mostly below its 200 hour moving average. There were brief move above that moving average on May 5 (on 2 Separate occasions) but those breaks failed and by May 6, the price has moved below the 100 hour moving average and has stayed below that moving average since then. The current 100 hour MA comes in at $21.36. A move above that level, and then the 200 hour MA (blue and green lines) at $21.938, is needed to give the buyers more control. The 200 hour MA is near the high of the swing area on the daily chart at $22.01. Getting above $22.00 is therefore a key target to get to and through on move higher next week. Absent that, and the sellers remain in full control. Silver has trended lower

Crude oil is near the topside trend line on the daily chart

WTI crude futures are up for the 3rd straight week after squeezing above the closing level from last week at $109.72. Today the price settled at $110.49.  That is up $4.36 or 4.11% on the day. For the week the prices up $0.77 after dipping as low as $98.20 and trading as high as $110.64.
Looking at the daily chart  above, the price is trading right around and a downward sloping topside trend line (give or take a few cents).  The price did inch above that level level at the high today.  The trendline will be a key barometer going into the trading week next week. Move above would be more bullish. Stay below, and we could see a rotation back to the downside.
At the low this week from Wednesday’s trade, the price tested the lower trend line and bounced.
So for the week, the trend lines on the daily chart have been instrumental in up and down week. The price is closing near the topside trend line which gives the buyers the better feeling. However, if that resistance holds, the „ups and downs“, may reenter a „down“ bias next week. 

USDCHF is up for the 6th consecutive week The USDCHF is on track for the 6th straight week of solid gains as the week comes to close. Since the last bottom when the USDCHF bottomed at 0.91942 during the week of March 27, the prices has moved up 853 pips to the high reached yesterday and today near 1.00486. In extending higher, the USDCHF price moved above a swing area between 1.00137 and 1.0027. The current price is trading above both those levels at 1.0032. Stay above the 1.0027 level is the most bullish bias for the pair off of the weekly chart. Of course the 1.0000 parity level is also a close support level that would keep the buyers satisfied, while keeping the sellers nervous. Drilling to the hourly chart below, a move back below the parity level would have traders looking toward what was a ceiling established from Monday and Thursday (see red numbered circles in the chart below). That ceiling area came between 0.99613 and 0.9974. Also near that level is the rising 100 hour moving average which cuts across at 0.99617. The combination increases the areas importance going forward. With parity a key natural support level, the ceiling from earlier this week down to 0.99613, and the rising 100 hour moving average at 0.99617, those 3 levels would need to be broken to give sellers more control and potentially define a high. Absent that, and the buyers remain in control and the trend remains to the upside. USDCHF broke above the ceiling from M-Th yesterday

Headlines:Risk keeps in a more positive spot so far on the dayElon Musk says Twitter deal put on hold, shares down 17% in pre-marketECB’s Centeno: APP should end in first few weeks of Q3, rate hike „some time after“ECB’s de Guindos doesn’t want to get sucked into July rate hike debateSouth Korea reports that North Korea appears ready for another nuclear testEurozone March industrial production -1.8% vs -2.0% m/m expectedSpain April final CPI +8.4% vs +8.4% y/y prelimFrance April final CPI +4.8% vs +4.8% y/y prelimMarkets:AUD leads, JPY lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 1.2%US 10-year yields up 8.5 bps to 2.90%Gold down 0.2% to $1,817.33WTI crude up 1.6% to $107.84Bitcoin up 6.6% to $30,436After the late comeback by US equities yesterday, risk appetite has improved in trading today with equities holding higher on the day.European indices are keeping gains of over 1% while US futures are also seeing similar gains with Nasdaq futures leading the charge, up 1.7% currently. That said, it still has been a rough week overall for US stocks so this is but a bit-part reprieve.The bid in bonds is also being cast aside as sellers return, after four straight days of „absence“ this week. 2-year Treasury yields are up 6.4 bps to 2.586% while 10-year Treasury yields are up 9.1 bps to 2.907%.In FX, there isn’t too much change as the dollar is sitting more mixed but mostly just giving up some light ground after its unrelenting advance this week. USD/JPY is perhaps the notable mover as it is up 0.5% to 129.00, bouncing off a drop just below 128.00 yesterday.Elsewhere, commodity currencies are the ones benefiting the most amid the improved risk mood. USD/CAD is down 0.3% but finding it tough to break below 1.3000 amid large option expiries. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is up 0.5% to 0.6890 but it doesn’t really mean much when you consider the technical picture.