• Sweeping, untargeted tariffs would raise prices for US households
• There is a growing international consensus that China must shift its economic practices
• China policies are leading to industrial overcapacity, threatening US firms and workers

All I see there is that if Trump wins the election and locks horns with China, it is likely to stoke inflation pressures. Expect that to be one of the potential election trade in the weeks ahead. That will not only impact the dollar based on the Fed outlook but also broader risk sentiment too.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview

The US Dollar has been
gaining ground across the board this week despite the lack of economic data and
lower Treasury yields, essentially moving forward by inertia.

Stanley Druckenmiller said
in an interview yesterday that the market is already positioning for a Trump
victory given the moves in some stocks like DJT for example.

That could explain the
recent USD strength as it should appreciate on higher growth and less rate cuts
expectations. Nevertheless, not all markets have been in sync with this view,
so it could be just noise.

For now, we can only work
with data and today we get the US retail sales and jobless claims figures which
will likely be market moving. The key events though will be in November when we
get the October data and the US election.

On the CAD side, the latest
Canadian
CPI missed expectations and sealed the 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting
with the market seeing now a 73% probability from 48% before the inflation
report.

The Loonie appreciated
following the data release although that might have had to do more with a “sell
the fact” reaction as the market priced in already a very aggressive rate cuts
path for the BoC.

USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD fell below the key 1.3785 level following the Canadian CPI report.
The sellers will likely keep on stepping in around this level to position for a
drop into the 1.36 support,
while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into
the 1.39 handle next.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke below the steep trendline that was defining the strong
bullish momentum. The sellers piled in on the break to position for new lows
and the price is now testing again the 1.3785 level. The buyers will want to
see the price breaking higher to start targeting new highs.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the resistance zone around the 1.3785 level. There’s not much
else to add here as the buyers will look for a break higher, while the sellers
will step in for a move lower. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have the US Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims data.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

FP Markets,
a global multi-asset
Forex and CFD
broker, participated in the Forex Expo Dubai 2024 earlier this month. The
largest trading event in the Middle East took place in Dubai, UAE, from 7-8
October and drew an impressive 18,000 visitors this year.

The FP Markets Team was invited to
participate in two segments: ‘Future Trends in Financial Technology’ and ‘Women
in Forex’. Martin Stoilov, Head of Customer Experience at FP Markets, delivered
an insightful talk on how Artificial Intelligence and the human element can
work together to create authentic customer experiences. Additionally, and as
part of the event’s newly-inaugurated segment ‘Women in Forex’, Global Head of
Marketing, Andria Phiniefs, led a panel discussion on the crucial part women
play in the industry, the challenges they face, and how they can be empowered
to take on more leadership roles.

The event concluded with an awards
ceremony on Tuesday evening during which the FP Markets Team received two
outstanding achievement accolades. Andria Phiniefs was recognised as ‘Mentor of
the Year’, and the FP Markets Research Team, headed by Market Analyst Aaron
Hill, was presented with the ‘Excellence in Technical Analysis’ award.

Commenting on FP Markets’ presence and
achievements at the Forex Expo Dubai 2024, Global Head of Marketing, Andria
Phiniefs, stated: ‘For the Team to be invited to talk as experts in their
respective fields, as well as awarded for outstanding contributions, is
testament to our brand’s culture. We are proud to be part of an ecosystem that
encourages agility and adaptability, pushing the boundaries of innovation
forward. At FP Markets, our belief in the power
of knowledge extends to both our Clients and Team: knowledge sharing happens
internally and externally. Striving to be more than just another broker, all
our efforts will continue to focus on furthering our Clients’ trading knowledge
and delivering a superior investing experience’.

About
FP Markets:

●
FP Markets is a Multi-Regulated Forex and
CFD Broker with over 19 years of industry experience.

●
The company offers highly competitive
interbank Forex spreads starting from 0.0 pips.

●
Traders can choose from leading powerful
online trading platforms,
including FP Markets’ Mobile App,
MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, WebTrader, cTrader, Iress
and TradingView.

●
The company’s outstanding 24/7
multilingual customer service has been recognised by Investment Trends and
awarded ‘The Highest Overall Client Satisfaction Award’ over five consecutive
years.

●
FP Markets was awarded ‘Best Value Broker
– Global’ for six consecutive years (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024) at the
Global Forex Awards.

●
FP Markets was awarded the ‘Best Broker –
Europe’ and the ‘Best Forex Partners Programme – Asia’ at the Global Forex
Awards (2022, 2023, 2024).

●
FP Markets was awarded ‘Best Trade
Execution’, and ‘Most Trusted Broker’ and ‘Best Trade Execution’ at the
Ultimate Fintech Awards in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

●
FP Markets was crowned ‘Best CFD Broker –
Africa’ at the 2023 FAME Awards.

●
FP Markets was awarded ‘Best Trade
Execution’ and ‘Most Transparent Broker’ at the Ultimate Fintech Awards APAC
2023.

●
FP Markets was awarded the ‘Best Price
Execution’ at the Brokersview Awards 2024, Singapore.

●
FP Markets was awarded the ‘Best Trading
Experience – Africa’ at the FAME Awards 2024.

●
FP Markets was awarded ‘Most Transparent Broker’
and ‘Best Trading Conditions’ at the
Global Ultimate Fintech Awards 2024.

●
FP Markets was awarded ‘Best Forex Spreads APAC’ and
‘Best Trading Experience APAC’ at the 2024 Finance Magnates Pacific
Summit.

●
FP Markets regulatory presence includes
the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), the Financial
Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) of South Africa, the Financial Services
Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission
(CySEC), the Securities Commission of the Bahamas (SCB), and the Capital
Markets Authority (CMA) of Kenya.

For more information on
FP Markets‘ comprehensive range of products and services, visit https://www.fpmarkets.com/

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Sterling the main mover in the FX space on the session
• UK September CPI +1.7% vs +1.9% y/y expected
• The gold train looks to march on
• This catalyst could trigger a huge selloff in gold
• Gold and Silver: A Correlated Duo
• Japan’s largest union group Rengo reportedly eyes wage hike of 5% or more in 2025
• BOJ’s Adachi says no specific timeline on when to raise rates again
• Italy September final CPI +0.7% vs +0.7% y/y prelim
• China reaffirms it will not renounce the use of force over Taiwan

Markets:

• EUR and USD lead, GBP lags on the day
• European equities lower, UK stocks up; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields down 2.8 bps to 4.010%
• Gold up 0.5% to $2,675.48
• WTI crude down 0.4% to $70.29
• Bitcoin up 2.0% to $67,830

The main focus of the session was on the UK CPI report and it came in softer than expected.

The details also showed slowing momentum in core prices and also services inflation, rebuffing expectations for a rate cut by the BOE next month.

It wasn’t too much though, with the OIS market already having implied a ~80% probability of a 25 bps move before the data. After, that was marked up to ~91% as it is currently.

In turn, the pound fell with GBP/USD sliding from 1.3070 to a low of 1.2983 during the session. The pair is holding on to the 1.3000 level though on the daily chart, seen at around 1.3015 now – down 0.4% on the day. EUR/GBP also pushed higher and is up 0.4% to 0.8365 currently.

Besides that, there wasn’t too much to work with for broader markets. The dollar remains steady across the board with EUR/USD keeping in a narrow range just under 1.0900. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is keeping little changed as well around 149.20-30 levels after recovering from the lows in Asia.

The antipodeans are on the softer side with some slight pressure on the Chinese yuan also still persisting. AUD/USD is one to watch as it flirts with its 100-day moving average of 0.6693 on the day.

In other markets, UK stocks are up after the softer inflation numbers but European indices elsewhere are lower but at least off earlier lows. French stocks are the laggard with the CAC 40 down 0.6%, marked down by budget worries.

As for the bond market, yields are looking heavier across the board with the UK leading the way. 10-year Treasury yields nearing 4% is something to keep an eye out for as well.

In the commodities space, gold continues to impress on the week as it closes in on fresh record highs. The precious metal touched $2,682 earlier, just a tad shy of last month’s record of $2,685.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -5.1%
• Market index 230.2 vs 277.5 prior
• Purchase index 138.4 vs 149.2 prior
• Refinance index 734.6 vs 997.3 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.52% vs 6.36% prior

Amid a jump in rates, mortgage applications dropped hard in the past week with both purchase and refinancing activity slumping hard. The latter in particular fell by 26% to its softest number since the first week of August. A sign of a false dawn for the US housing market in after the brief recovery in recent weeks?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The bullish momentum in the
US Dollar seems to be waning despite the recent higher-than-expected US CPI and PPI reports. One caveat is that the market has now
priced out the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s almost perfectly in
line with the Fed’s projections.

Therefore, we will likely
need more strong US data to see the market pricing in an earlier pause in the
Fed’s easing cycle and give the US Dollar a further boost. The next big risk
events will be in November when we get the October data, the FOMC policy decision
and the US election.

On the AUD side, the RBA
continues to maintain its hawkish stance although that was toned down a bit in
the last meeting. Tomorrow, we get the Australian labour market report but unless
we get big deviations from the expectations, it’s unlikely to influence the
current pricing.

AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD continues to drop although the momentum slowed down. The target
for the sellers should be the 0.6622 level. That’s where we can expect the
buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally
back into the 0.68 handle.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish
momentum. The sellers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for further
downside, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to pile
in for a rally into new highs.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the trendline acting as a strong
barrier. We have now a strong resistance around the 0.67 handle that the buyers
will need to break to start targeting new highs, while the sellers will look
for a rejection to pile in for new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow we have the Australian Labour Market report, the US Retail Sales and
the US Jobless Claims data.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The bullish momentum in the
US Dollar seems to be waning despite the recent higher-than-expected US CPI and PPI reports. One caveat is that the market has now
priced out the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s almost perfectly in
line with the Fed’s projections.

Therefore, we will likely
need more strong US data to see the market pricing in an earlier pause in the
Fed’s easing cycle and give the US Dollar a further boost. The next big risk
events will be in November when we get the October data, the FOMC policy decision
and the US election.

On the GBP side, we got the
UK
CPI report this morning and the data missed expectations across the board
by a big margin. That prompted the market to expect another 25 bps cut in
December.

GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD is bouncing once again from the 1.30 handle after the quick
drop following the UK CPI report. The buyers are stepping in around these
levels to position for a rally back into the 1.32 handle. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish
bets into the major trendline.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the bounce on the 1.30 handle as the buyers continue to pile
in for a move back into the top of the recent range at 1.31. The market
participants will likely keep on playing the range until we get a breakout on
either side.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price reached the bottom of the average daily range for today, so it’s unlikely that we
will see much lower prices today. It’s all about waiting for the breakout of
the range now.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow we have the US Retail Sales and the US Jobless Claims data, while on
Friday we get the UK Retail Sales figures.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The pound is lower owing to the softer UK CPI report earlier here. That rebuffed BOE rate cut expectations for next month, which were already high to begin with. Traders saw ~80% odds of a 25 bps rate cut for November and bolstered that to ~91% now. GBP/USD fell from around 1.3070 to a low of 1.2983 before keeping just above 1.3000 currently.

The figure level is the key line in the sand to watch on the daily chart, with the technical backdrop outlined here.

There’s not much else as the dollar continues to keep steadier and consolidate gains since the start of the month. EUR/USD remains just under 1.0900 while USD/JPY is lightly changed at 149.20 after a brief dip under 149.00 in Asia.

Besides that, AUD/USD remains one to watch as it is flirting with a key technical support level as noted here.

Looking to the equities space, UK stocks are buoyed by the softer inflation numbers but European indices are all lower with declines led by France. Budget worries are weighing on French stocks but they have trimmed declines from over 1% to around 0.4% now.

In the bond market, 10-year Treasury yields are nudging back lower towards the 4% mark and that is something to be mindful of in case yields do turn lower still. In that lieu, gold is being driven higher to $2,680 now as it closes in on fresh record highs last month near $2,685.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• China to hold press conference on promoting steady and healthy development of property sector on October 17 at 10 am Beijing time.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Equities keep more tentative so far in the new day
• Eurozone August industrial production +1.8% vs +1.7% m/m expected
• Germany October ZEW survey current conditions -86.9 vs -84.5 expected
• USD/JPY wrestles with near-term support after nearing 150.00 yesterday
• IEA cuts 2024 oil demand growth forecast amid China drag
• China economy set to miss growth target in 2024 – poll
• Chinese stocks continue down the bumpy stretch of road in the new week
• European equities mostly a touch higher to start the day
• Spain September final CPI +1.5% vs +1.5% y/y prelim
• France September final CPI +1.1% vs +1.2% y/y prelim
• What are the main events for today?
• Eurostoxx futures +0.1% in early European trading
• UK August ILO unemployment rate 4.0% vs 4.1% expected
• Germany September wholesale price index -0.3% vs -0.8% m/m prior
• FX option expiries for 15 October 10am New York cut
• UK labour market report on the agenda in the session ahead
• BOJ seen keeping interest rates unchanged through year-end – poll
• China banks reportedly set to trim rates on ¥300 trillion of deposits as soon as this week
• Dollar keeps steadier as the week looks to pick up
• Japan PM says aims to for a supplementary budget higher than last years amount

The main event in the European session today was the release of the UK labour market report. The data beat expectations and after some tentative price action, led to a rally in the pound.

We also got the German ZEW which came out on the softer side but the expectations index improved. That didn’t help the euro though as it continues to trade tentatively into the ECB decision on Thursday.

In the markets, the most notable mover has been crude oil as it extended the fall triggered by late yesterday’s news of Israel limiting the counterstrike to military targets.

In FX, we continue to see tight ranges although the bullish momentum in the US Dollar looks to be exhausted as the market might need more to price in a more „hawkish“ path for interest rates than the current Fed’s projections.

In the equity space, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are consolidating around yesterday’s highs. We haven’t got any bearish catalyst in the meantime, so the current uptrend will likely remain intact.

In the American session, the main event will be the release of the Canadian CPI. The market
is pricing in a 48% probability of a 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting. Soft data will likely seal the 50 bps cut,
while higher than expected figures might trigger a relief rally in the CAD.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.