<p>Earlier news today that Treasury Secretary Yellen was meeting with regulators offered some support for markets and hope of weekend action to shore up deposits. The initial readout was vague:</p><p>The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1367″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>statement </a>was:</p><blockquote>Today, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen convened a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council (Council) in executive session by videoconference.During the meeting, the Council heard a presentation from staff of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/f/federal-reserve/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“0139b451-c49a-48a1-8365-838a83595a97″>Federal Reserve</a> Bank of New York on market developments. The Council discussed current conditions in the banking sector and noted that while some institutions have come under stress, the U.S. banking system remains sound and resilient. The Council also discussed ongoing efforts at member agencies to monitor financial developments.</blockquote><p>Separately, the US announced that bank deposits only fell to $17.5T from $17.6T in the week ending March 15. Next week’s data will be more telling and some of this is money moving from small banks to big ones but there doesn’t look to be a broad run here.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The major US stock indices are closing higher for the day, and higher for the week. For the trading year, the Dow industrial average is still down on the year but the S&amp;P and the NASDAQ index are positive</p><p>A snapshot of the closing levels for the day shows:</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average up 132.28 points or 0.41% at 32237.54. At intraday lows, the index was down -300.08 points</li><li>S&amp;P index up 22.27 points or 0.56% at 3970.98. At intraday lows, the S&amp;P index was down -39.55 points</li><li>NASDAQ index up 36.57 points or 0.31% at 11823.97. Intraday lows reached -116.73 points.</li><li>The Russell 2000 up 14.63 points or 0.85% at 1734.92. The low for the day was down -25.05 points</li></ul><p>For the trading week,</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average rose 1.18%</li><li>S&amp;P index rose 1.39%</li><li>NASDAQ index rose 1.66%</li><li>Russell 2000 rose 0.52%</li></ul><p>For the trading year, the Dow industrial average remains negative, while the S&amp;P index in the NASDAQ index are higher.</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average is a down -2.74%</li><li>S&amp;P index is up 3.42%</li><li>NASDAQ index is up 12.97%</li></ul><p>How did the S&amp;P components do this week? The gains were led by communication services up 3.4 point percent. Real estate fell -1.38% and utilities fell -1.2%. Despite all the financial concerns this week, the financial component rose 0.58%. The regional bank index was also higher by 0.18%. That index rose 3.03% today pushing the price back into positive territory for the week.</p><ul><li>Consumer discretionary, +0.44%</li><li>Energy +2.29%.</li><li>Consumer Staples +1.43%.</li><li>Healthcare +1.49%.</li><li>Industrials +0.67%</li><li>Information technology +2.04%.</li><li>Materials +2.12%.</li><li>Real estate -1.38%.</li><li>Communication services +3.41%.</li><li>Utilities -1.2%.</li><li>Financials +0.58%</li></ul><p>For the trading year:</p><ul><li>Consumer discretionary, +9.65%</li><li>Energy -11.05% </li><li>Consumer Staples -2.28%</li><li>Healthcare -6.38%.</li><li>Industrials -1.31%</li><li>Information technology +17.49%</li><li>Materials -1.13%</li><li>Real estate -3.92%</li><li>Communication services 18.46%</li><li>Utilities -6.87%</li><li>Financials -9.43%</li></ul>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/sp-global-marchus-services-pmi-538-vs-505-expected-20230324/“>S&amp;P Global March flash US services PMI 53.8 vs 50.5 expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-retail-sales-for-january-14-versus-07-estimate-20230324/“>Canada retail sales for January 1.4% versus 0.7% estimate</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-february-durable-goods-orders-10-vs-06-expected-20230324/“>US February durable goods orders -1.0% vs +0.6% expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-bullard-sees-80-chance-financial-stress-abates-20230324/“>Fed’s Bullard: Sees 80% chance financial stress abates</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-bullard-inflation-remains-too-high-macro-data-stronger-than-expected-20230324/“>Fed’s Bullard: Inflation remains too high, macro data ’stronger than expected'</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fed-barkin-the-case-for-raising-rates-this-week-was-pretty-clear-20230324/“>Fed Barkin: The case for raising rates this week was pretty clear</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-bostic-fed-rate-rise-was-not-an-easy-decision-20230324/“>Fed’s Bostic: Fed rate rise was not an easy decision</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/baker-hughes-us-oil-rig-count-4-20230324/“>Baker Hughes US oil rig count +4</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/atlanta-fed-q1-gdpnow-tracker-32-vs-32-prior-20230324/“>Atlanta Fed Q1 GDPNow tracker 3.2% vs 3.2% prior</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boes-mann-i-voted-for-25-bps-partly-because-inflation-expectations-began-to-moderate-20230324/“>BOE’s Mann: I voted for 25 bps partly because inflation expectations began to moderate</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/yellen-convenes-private-meeting-of-financial-stabilty-oversight-council-20230324/“>Yellen convenes private meeting of financial stabilty oversight council</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-lagarde-told-eu-leaders-ecb-fully-equipped-to-provide-liquidity-to-financial-system-20230324/“>ECB’s Lagarde told EU leaders ECB fully equipped to provide liquidity to financial system</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold down $14 to $1979</li><li>US 10-year yield down 2.8 bps to 3.37%</li><li>WTI crude oil down 64 cents to $69.32</li><li>S&amp;P 500 up 22 points to 3971. On the week up 1.4%</li><li>JPY leads, NZD lags</li></ul><p>The mood was poor at the start of North American trade as banking worries — particularly Deutsche Bank — haunted the market. US regional stocks were also under pressure and bonds had a strong bid. That had led to US dollar and yen buying as safe havens as US 2-year yields hit now post-SVB lows.</p><p>The mood changed as Fed speakers and data rolled out. The PMIs in particular were a reminder that the bulk of US economic data has surprised to the upside this year and there are no concrete signs of a slowdown; if anything it’s the opposite.</p><p>That led to some selling in bonds and the dollar began to slowly pare gains ex-JPY. Equities turned more decisively later in the day as they followed regional bank shares once again. News that Yellen was meeting with regulators was well-received but might have also stoked expectations of weekend action. That could lead to disappointment on Monday if nothing unfolds.</p><p>Overall, it was a volatile week and there won’t be too many people disappointed to see the weekend arrive. The machinations of Fed week and non-stop banking news leave the market needing an opportunity to digest.</p><p>The weekly charts show some nice progress for the yen but it stalled today and began to reverse. That’s where the focus is going to remain.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Some late day buying is pushing the major indices to new highs for the day. They are also moving into positive territory.</p><p>A snapshot of the market currently shows:</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average up 119 points or 0.37% at 32223.86</li><li>S&amp;P index of 20.29 points or 0.51% at 3969</li><li>NASDAQ index up 34.49 points or 0.29% at 11821.40</li></ul><p>The S&amp;P index has moved back above its 100 hour moving average currently at 3944.60. It’s a 200 hour moving average looms up above at 3988.32.</p><p>Looking at the NASDAQ index, the low price today stalled against the low price from Wednesday’s trade. On Monday, the price traded above and below the 200 hour moving average to start the day, but closed above that level and remained above both the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 11569.42 and 11600.91. It would take a move below both next week to increase the bearish bias. Until then the buyers are more in control.</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the pair keeps on falling pretty hard as Treasury yields keep sagging
due to the market pricing in the end of the Fed hiking cycle and several rate
cuts this year. This fast repricing was caused by the recent banking woes
around the regional banks. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> have crossed to the downside indicating a downtrend. The price though
is a bit overextended now, as we can see from the distance between the price
and the blue short term period moving average, which is generally a sign of a
looming pullback. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>USD/JPY technical analysis</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the market is trading within a downward channel. We can also see that
the price is <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“>diverging</a> with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/“>MACD</a> which is another sign of a
possible pullback as the selling momentum gets weaker. It’s hard to envision a
pullback without good US economic data though. Today we have the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>US PMIs</a> and we should see the price
rallying in case the data beat expectations and falling in case the data
misses.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the 1 hour chart below, we
have a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> that defines the current trend.
The buyers will need a break above it to target the top of the channel, while
the sellers will try to lean on it with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/“>confluence</a> of the red long period moving
average as their first try for new shorts. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the sellers leant on the strong <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> zone at the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> where we had <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/“>confluence</a> with the red long period <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
average</a> and the resistance level at 32684. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The price has sold off from that
area as the Fed hiked interest rates by 25 bps and left everything else unchanged,
including QT and the Dot Plot besides the market pricing rate cuts this year.
So, the Fed is still resolute in bringing inflation down to their 2% target but
has also acknowledged risks around the banking sector.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Dow Jones technical analysis</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that after rejecting the trendline and the 61.8% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level, the price sold off pretty heavily before
bouncing the following day. The moving averages have crossed to the downside
meanwhile, which may be an early signal of a change in trend. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the sellers will now need a clear break below the 32225 level to gain
some control and start targeting the low at 31645. In case the sellers manage
to break the low, we may see a bigger selloff to the 31000 level. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The buyers, on the other hand,
will need to break above the trendline and the 32684 resistance level to regain
control and target the next resistance at 33500. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Yeah, yeah.. I know, a half day today (some of you will be pleased about that) – unfortunately family matters come first.I wish you all an awesome weekend.</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/no-let-up-for-world-stocks-as-banking-worries-persist-20230324/“>No let up for world stocks as banking worries persist</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-nagel-it-is-necessary-to-raise-policy-rates-to-sufficiently-restrictive-levels-20230324/“>ECB’s Nagel: It is necessary to raise policy rates to sufficiently restrictive levels.</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-sp-services-pmi-flash-528-forecast-53-previous-535-20230324/“>UK S&amp;P Services PMI Flash: 52.8 (Forecast 53, Previous 53.5)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-sp-mfg-pmi-flash-471-forecast-49-previous-485-20230324/“>Eurozone S&amp;P Mfg PMI Flash: 47.1 (Forecast 49, Previous 48.5)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/german-sp-mfg-pmi-flash-444-forecast-47-previous-463-20230324/“>German S&amp;P Mfg PMI Flash: 44.4 (Forecast 47, Previous 46.3)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/french-sp-services-pmi-flash-555-forecast-525-previous-531-20230324/“>French S&amp;P Services PMI Flash: 55.5 (Forecast 52.5, Previous 53.1)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/newsquawk-market-open-wall-st-higher-amid-dovish-repricing-despite-hawkish-thurs-action-20230324/“>@Newsquawk Market Open: Wall St higher amid dovish repricing despite hawkish Thurs action</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-retail-sales-mom-12-forecast-02-previous-05-20230324/“>UK Retail Sales MoM: 1.2% (Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.5%)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boes-bailey-warns-interest-rates-will-rise-again-if-firms-hike-prices-20230324/“>BoE’s Bailey warns interest rates will rise again if firms hike prices</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

<p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://PiQSuite.com/Suite/reuters/2023:newsml_KBN2VQ04K“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>As Reuters Reports: Global stocks were pressured on Friday and safe-haven buying supported government bonds as concerns about the stability of the banking system lingered.</a></p><p>Global stocks were pressured on Friday and safe-haven buying supported government bonds as concerns about the stability of the banking system lingered. </p><p>The STOXX sub-index of bank shares, which had rebounded from earlier falls this week following a forced weekend tie-up between Credit Suisse and UBS bought some stability, fell almost 3% in early trade. </p><p>Shares in Deutsche Bank tumbled after a sharp jump in its credit default swaps, which reflect the cost of insuring debt against the risk of default, the day before.</p><p>The moves highlight just how frail sentiment remains after turmoil in the U.S. and European banking sectors in the past two weeks have revived memories of the 2008 global financial crisis.</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

<p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://PiQSuite.com/Suite/reuters/2023:newsml_KBN2VQ0LJ“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>The European Central Bank must continue to raise interest rates and should speed up the reduction of its balance sheet as rapid wage growth is putting upward pressure on an already high inflation rate, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on Friday.</a></p><p>ECB’s Nagel is on the wires:</p><p>It is necessary to raise policy rates to sufficiently restrictive levels, the wind down should accelerate from Q3.</p><p>The recent wage deals are inconsistent with price stability and are to prolong the prevailing period of high inflation.</p><p>There are signs of second-round effects from <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“ad51a5a2-1afc-4f42-9e62-ea6faf6f90fa“>inflation</a>-induced higher wage increases back to prices.</p><p>The labour market is to remain tight, labour shortages are obstacles to production.</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

<p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://PiQSuite.com/Suite/reuters/2023:newsml_KBN2VP0S6″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Reuters report that Italy is preparing a new package of measures worth around 5 billion euros ($5.5 billion) to help businesses and families cope with costly energy bills which it plans to announce next week, two government sources told Reuters on Thursday.</a></p><p>- Not exactly deflationary is it…. </p><p>Rome now wants to extend and review these measures in a decree expected to be approved by the cabinet on March 28, the sources said, asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. As part of the package, the Treasury plans to extend until June an existing bonus aimed at cutting energy bills paid by low-income households.Moreover, Rome intends to change a tax break to cut energy costs for firms, making it available only if the price of methane exceeds a certain threshold still to be defined.</p><p>Gas prices have fallen in recent months, with the Dutch TTF hub hovering around 41 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), sharply down from 73 euros in early 2023.</p><p>I’m sure the ECB are thrilled by this</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.