<p>On the day:</p><ul><li>S&P 500 -1.0%</li><li>DJIA -1.1%</li><li>Nasdaq Comp -1.7%</li><li>Russell 2000 -1.2%</li><li>Toronto TSX -0.3%</li></ul><p>On the week:</p><ul><li>S&P 500 -2.7% — worst since Dec</li><li>Nasdaq Comp -3.3% — worst since Dec</li><li>Russell 2000 -3.1%</li><li>Toronto TSX -1.7%</li></ul><p>It was a rough one for US stocks but not as bad as it looked midday. The S&P 500 fell 45 points to 3974 after falling as low as 3947. There were a series of higher lows throughout the day, indicating that dip buyers are still lurking. The 200-day moving average held today on the first challenge.</p><p>The bigger story is the bond market with US 2s closing at 4.81%, which is the highest since 2007.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>When you zoom out and look at the weekly oil chart, all the volatility seems to spill away. There have been plenty of whippy moves in the past few months but it’s all taken place in a range of $70-85.</p><p>This week, oil bounced around again but closed almost perfectly flat on the week after a 99-cent gain today.</p><p>The bears are worried about inventories building in the US and muddling signs from China’s reopening. The bulls are encouraged by better global growth and Russian supplies stumbling.</p><p>Ultimately though, we’re right in the middle of the range and waiting for a break on one side or the other. At this point, I can’t imagine either side holding a great deal of conviction.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The USDCHF is stretching to the January and 2023 high at 0.94069. The price just reached 0.94058. There is some symmetry in the daily chart for the year. The move to the downside from the high took 19 days. The move back to the upside in February is on day 16.</p><p>Looking at the chart, the low price reached on February 2nd took the price below the low floor area between 0.9081 and 0.91014. The low price extended to 0.90586 on the break of the floor, but momentum could be sustained and the price quickly started to rebound back to the upside. </p><p>With the dollar bias continuing the move higher with some pairs either testing or breaking through some key technical levels (the GBPUSD is testing its 100/200 day MA, the AUDUSD is testing its 100 day MA. The NZDUSD broken below both its 100/200 day MAs today), if the tilt continues, pairs like the USDCHF has the falling 100 day MA above at 0.9469 (and moving lower) and the 38.2% of the move down from the 2022 high at 0.94744 as targets above. </p><p>Both those levels are within a swing area between 0.9453 and 0.9479 (see green numbered circles).</p><p>Looking at the hourly chart, the price today moved above the topside trend line . That trend line will be at 0.9379 at the end of day. That level will be a close risk level for traders going forward especially if the price holds here. ON a break below, we could see more corrective action from the run higher. </p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Fed needs to keep at rate hikes until inflation trend brakes lower</li><li>Says here view on the economy and inflation hasn’t been changed by the latest data</li><li>Data shows inflation not yet on trend to get back sustainably to 2% target</li><li>New <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“ad51a5a2-1afc-4f42-9e62-ea6faf6f90fa“ target=“_blank“>inflation</a> data affirms case for rate hikes</li><li>Asked about 25 bps vs 50 bps at March meeting, declines to say</li><li>Says 25 vs 50 bps discussion misses bigger picture</li><li>Says there’s more data and info to take on before debating rate rise sizes at March 21-22 meeting</li></ul><p>Again, she’s passing up an opportunity to be more hawkish than previously. She has previously said that rates need to get above 5% and stay there, so that’s not new.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar is moving higher amid the backdrop of <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/equities-dribble-lower-ahead-of-north-american-trading-20230224/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>struggling equities</a> and also as Treasury yields nudge higher. 10-year yields in the US are now at the highs for the day, up 2.3 bps, to 3.904% and that is keeping the greenback underpinned.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>We’re seeing fresh highs now for the dollar all across the board and in my view, USD/JPY and AUD/USD are two big charts to watch. The former is up 0.5% to 135.43 – its highest levels in a little over two months:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Buyers have been huffing and puffing to try and find a breakthrough above 135.00 and they might get their just rewards today.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, AUD/USD is starting to see a stronger downside momentum build as it trades to its lowest levels in seven weeks. The series of technical support levels outlined <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/audusd-is-starting-to-see-support-lines-crack-under-the-dollar-pressure-20230224/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a> are all giving way at the moment as the pair drops by 0.7% to 0.6765:</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It hasn’t been a good session for equities whatsoever, with it being a slow and steady grind lower through European morning trade. That has also seen the decently positive start for European stocks wither with most regional indices seeing red at the moment. Here’s a snapshot of things on the day:</p><ul><li>S&P 500 futures -0.6%</li><li>Nasdaq futures -0.9%</li><li>Dow futures -0.5%</li><li>Eurostoxx -0.5%</li><li>Germany DAX -0.5%</li><li>France CAC 40 -0.3%</li><li>UK FTSE +0.1%</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In turn, this is helping to keep the dollar underpinned with USD/JPY racing up to 135.40 now – up 0.5% on the day. Elsewhere, EUR/USD is trading to the lows at 1.0575 and GBP/USD is also down 0.3% now to 1.1980 currently. The antipodeans are still the laggards with AUD/USD down 0.7% to 0.6765 and NZD/USD down 0.5% to 0.6198 – both at the lows for the day as well.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It all started on the morning of 24 February 2022:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/putin-has-announced-a-special-military-operation-20220224/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Putin has announced a Special Military Operation</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/ukraine-capital-kyiv-has-declared-a-state-of-emergency-20220223/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Ukraine capital Kyiv has declared a State of Emergency</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/ukraine-says-that-kyiv-is-under-attack-from-cruise-and-ballistic-missiles-20220224/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Ukraine says that Kyiv is under attack from cruise and ballistic missiles</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/nato-confirms-officially-that-an-invasion-of-ukraine-has-begun-20220224/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>NATO confirms officially that an invasion of Ukraine has begun</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It is now a historic day for the entire world and things have never really been the same when it comes to geopolitical relations across the globe. Russia has since been heavily isolated by sanctions and China, while mostly trying to stay on the fence, has also seen recent relations with the US take a turn for the worse – though that has been coming for a while.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, the struggle is continuing for the commonfolk – especially those caught up in the war and neighbouring countries. It is an extremely tough period for many and I would like to express my deepest sympathies and prayers for those having to go through this difficult ordeal.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I would say that while markets have been quick to dismiss the headlines and move on from the issue, it is one that is still embedded within all of us and it is a reminder to everyone that life should not be taken for granted.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that gold keeps on slowly trending downwards. After the break of the big
upward <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> that defined the uptrend since
November 2022, the precious metal just kept on losing ground. </p><p>The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> have crossed to the downside signalling a change in trend. The culprit
was the blockbuster <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-nonfarm-payroll-517k-vs-185k-estimate-unemployment-rate-34-vs-35-estimate-20230203/“>NFP</a> report and the subsequent hot
key economic data that made the market to reprice higher future interest rates
expectations. Gold is inversely correlated with real yields, so the recent rise
in real yields is giving gold a hard time. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see how gold’s price action has been clean recently with downside extensions
followed by pullbacks to the broken <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>supports</a> turned <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistances</a>. </p><p>If the economic data keep on
surprising upwards, then we will most likely see even lower prices going
forward. On the other hand, if we start to get misses, then the market may
think that the January data was indeed just a blip, and we should see higher
prices instead. </p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that right now the price is trading around the support zone at 1825. A
clean break below, especially if supported by a fundamental catalyst, will give
sellers conviction for lower lows, possibly finding some support at the 1800
round number. </p><p>For the buyers, on the other
hand, a bigger bounce from the current support accompanied by a new higher high
and the moving averages crossing upwards, should give conviction for a move
towards the resistance at 1855. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the price has now fallen to the key 11492 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> where we can also find the 38.2%
<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. This level will be key for both buyers and
sellers. </p><p>Overall, the work for the buyers
is more challenging as the market started to price in a higher terminal rate as
many key economic data came in hot recently and there’s a chance the Fed will
be forced to do more, ultimately causing a recession. </p><p>The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> have also crossed to the downside signalling a possible change in
trend. We will have another set of key economic data soon and we will see if
the January data was indeed just a blip, or the Fed has slowed the pace of
hikes too early. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see how the price is founding strong support at the 11492 level. We may see a
little range here until new information comes in and gives the market the
direction. </p><p>A clean break below will give the
sellers more conviction to target possibly the 11000 level, with a further fall
potentially leading to the 2022 low at 10092.</p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see the little range between the 11632 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> and the 11492 support. A break
above the resistance and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level should give the
buyers some conviction for an upside extension, possibly to the 61.8%
retracement level. </p><p>The moving averages are crossing
upwards, but it may be a false signal as it generally is within a range. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The always awesome Newsquawk US Market Open: NQ outperforms given NVIDIA strength, Gilts lag post-Mann</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://newsquawk.com/daily/article/?id=2874-us-market-open-nq-outperforms-given-nvidia-strength-gilts-lag-postmann&utm_source=newsquawk&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_content=us-open“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Note</a></p><p>Key Points</p><p>European bourses are firmer on the session with a hefty earnings docket dictating action after an uninspiring APAC handover.</p><p>Stateside, futures are broadly-speaking in-fitting with Europe though the NQ +0.7% outperforms given tailwinds from NVIDIA’s after-market update.</p><p>The DXY continues to grind higher at the top-end of 104.30-65 parameters to the mixed fortune of peers; Antipodeans outperform and GBP lags despite Mann.</p><p>Gilts are the incremental laggards post-Mann and down to a new 101.26 session low with the Sonia strip similarly dented, EGBs & USTs in-fitting though incrementally more contained.</p><p>BoE’s Mann says she does not think UK monetary policy is in a restrictive stance particularly.WTI and Brent April futures are consolidating following another hefty session of losses, Henry Hub firmer, spot gold contained but erring lower.</p><p>Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP/PCE Q4 (2nd Estimate), IJC Japanese CPI, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic & Daly, BoE’s Cunliffe, Supply from US, Earning from Moderna.</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.