<p>The one-year oil curve fell into contango today as front-month prices continued to crumble. I think the focus on the curve structure is overdone, especially with uncertainty about China’s reopening timeline, but that likely kicked off a final press towards $70.</p><p>Bidders just above $70 finally stepped in, some perhaps on hopes for an OPEC leak or Russian action on the weekend. The low was $70.06 and it has quickly rallied to $71.50.</p><p>$70 is also more than just a big round number. US officials have indicated that the want to refill the SPR around $70 and that may act as support.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Orders/update-fx-option-expiries-for-09-december-2022-at-the-10am-new-york-cut-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>UPDATE – FX option expiries for 09 December 2022 at the 10am New York cut</a>rordeeck_box_outline_nk</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/bitcoin-hits-the-ceiling-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>Bitcoin hits the ceiling</a>rerderheck_box_outline_bank</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecb-says-banks-to-repay-eur-447bn-of-tltro-funds-early-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>ECB says banks to repay EUR 447bn of TLTRO funds early</a>eorderchck_box_outline_blnk</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/tass-reports-on-a-meeting-between-russia-and-the-us-in-istanbul-today-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>TASS reports on a meeting between Russia and the US in Istanbul today</a>reoderchec_ox_outline_blnk</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-inflation-expectations-are-back-to-their-nine-year-high-recap-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>UK inflation expectations are back to their nine-year high – recap</a>rerderchank</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/twenty-oil-tankers-wait-to-cross-istanbuls-bosphorus-strait-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>“Twenty oil tankers wait to cross Istanbul’s Bosphorus Strait“</a>rerderank</li></ul><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/china-will-750bn-yuan-of-3-year-special-sovereign-bonds-on-december-12-to-fund-stimulus-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>China will sell 750bn yuan of 3-year special sovereign bonds on Dec 12 to fund stimulus</a> rordeank</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/icymi-measure-of-global-supply-chain-performance-rose-to-its-long-run-average-in-november-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>ICYMI: Measure of global supply chain performance rose to its long-run average in November</a>r</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-uk-inflation-expectations-survey-48-vs-49-prior-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>BoE UK inflation expectations survey: 4.8% vs. 4.9% prior</a>re</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/riksbanks-jansson-important-that-inflation-is-back-on-target-by-end-23-start-24-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>Riksbank’s Jansson – important that inflation is back on target by end ’23 start ’24</a>r</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/tesla-tsla-to-reduce-output-in-december-by-around-30-from-november-for-model-y-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>Tesla (TSLA) to reduce output in December by around 30% from November for Model Y</a>rnk</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/taiwan-chipmaker-tsmc-says-november-net-revenue-up-50-yy-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>Taiwan chipmaker TSMC says November net revenue up 50% y/y</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/opec-crude-output-fell-700000-bd-in-november-the-sharpest-drop-since-april-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>OPEC+ crude output fell 700,000 b/d in November, the sharpest drop since April</a>r</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/ft-says-china-is-starting-to-under-report-coronavirus-case-and-fatality-data-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>FT says China is starting to under-report coronavirus case and fatality data</a>e</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-moving-higher-against-gbp-aud-nzd-cad-yen-to-a-lesser-extent-eur-not-much-changed-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>US moving higher against GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD (yen to a lesser extent, EUR not much changed)</a>ank</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/china-media-hail-the-effectiveness-of-traditional-chinese-medicine-tcm-in-treating-covid-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>China media hail the effectiveness of Traditional Chinese medicine, TCM, in treating COVID</a>r</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/hong-kong-stocks-had-a-solid-rise-on-friday-up-over-2-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>Hong Kong stocks had a solid rise on Friday, up over 2%</a></li></ul><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/the-head-and-shoulders-pattern-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>The Head and Shoulders Pattern</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/swedish-central-banks-jansson-says-prepared-to-do-more-if-necessary-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>Swedish central bank’s Jansson says prepared to do more if necessary</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/spanish-data-industrial-output-slower-in-october-than-in-september-both-mm-and-yy-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>Spanish data – industrial output slower in October than in September both m/m and y/y</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-treasury-says-itll-reform-short-selling-regulation-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>UK Treasury says it’ll reform short selling regulation</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-pm-kishida-says-trillion-yen-tax-hike-needed-to-pay-for-defense-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>Japan PM Kishida says trillion-yen tax hike needed to pay for defense</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-says-will-not-be-publishing-the-november-ppi-data-as-scheduled-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>UK says will not be publishing the November PPI data as scheduled</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/norway-inflation-data-november-headline-02-mm-prior-03-and-core-01-03-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>Norway inflation data November. Headline -0.2% m/m (prior +0.3%) and core -0.1% (0.3%)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/saudi-china-joint-statement-stressed-the-importance-of-stability-in-the-world-oil-markets-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>Saudi, China joint statement stressed the importance of stability in the world oil markets</a>r</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-villeroy-says-cannot-dismiss-the-possibility-of-an-economic-recession-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>ECB’s Villeroy says cannot dismiss the possibility of an economic recession</a>r</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/credit-suisse-says-chinas-inflation-likely-to-stay-below-3-in-the-next-12-to-18-months-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>Credit Suisse says China’s inflation likely to stay below 3% in the next 12 to 18 months</a>r</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/possible-boj-kuroda-replacement-says-the-bank-should-review-its-policy-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>Possible BOJ Kuroda replacement says the Bank should review its policy</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/credit-suisse-usdjpy-trade-a-treacherous-environment-boj-meeting-probably-irrelevant-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>Credit Suisse: USD/JPY trade „a treacherous environment“ – BOJ meeting probably irrelevant</a>r</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/russian-oil-discount-sale-urals-crude-at-baltics-ports-this-week-assessed-at-45bbl-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>Russian oil – discount sale. Urals crude at Baltics ports this week assessed at $45/bbl.</a>r</li></ul><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-pm-announces-government-will-set-a-price-cap-for-gas-aud12-and-coal-aud125-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>Australian PM announces government will set a price cap for gas (AUD12) and coal (AUD125)</a>r</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-asia-pacific-fx-news-wrap-usd-lower-as-the-week-works-toward-the-close-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD lower as the week works toward the close</a>d</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/oecd-head-cormann-says-the-global-economic-outlook-is-continuing-to-deteriorate-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>OECD head Cormann says the global economic outlook is continuing to deteriorate</a>re</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/economic-calendar-in-europeuk-friday-9-december-2022-boe-inflation-attitudes-survey-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>Economic calendar in Europe/UK – Friday, 9 December 2022 – BoE inflation attitudes survey</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/trade-ideas-thread-friday-9-december-2022-ukeurope-version-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>Trade ideas thread – Friday, 9 December 2022, UK/Europe version!!!</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Cryptocurrency/australian-crypto-exchange-digital-surge-entered-voluntary-administration-20221209/“ target=“_blank“>Australian crypto exchange Digital Surge entered voluntary administration</a></li></ul><p class=“western“>
It
was a relatively sedate session, traders are looking ahead to a busy
central bank driven week coming up next week with the Fed, Bank of
England and European Central Bank. Even today there was a focus
on US data with November PPI and December Michigan Sentiment ahead in
the coming hours.
</p><p class=“western“>The
USD firmed a little after losing some ground in Asia. Ranges were not
large.
</p><p class=“western“>Oil
popped a little (and, as I update, has not followed through) with
news that China is to sell 750bn yuan of bonds to fund an economic
boost. China news has been optimistic all week as reopening moves are
made and further support is provided to the troubled property sector.</p><p class=“western“>CAD was weak:</p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>
EUR/USD
</p><ul><li>1.0400 406mn
</li><li>1.0440-50 333mn
</li><li>1.0550 427mn</li></ul><p>USD/JPY </p><ul><li>135.00 511mn
</li><li>135.25 305mn
</li><li>135.50 210mn</li><li>136.00 623mn
</li><li>137.00 200mn</li></ul><p>GBP/USD
</p><ul><li>1.2200 211mn
</li><li>1.2400 291mn</li></ul><p>EUR/GBP
</p><ul><li>0.8700 280mn</li></ul><p>AUD/USD
</p><ul><li>0.6600 482mn
</li><li>0.6700 343mn
</li><li>0.6750 219mn</li><li>0.6800 428mn</li></ul><p>USD/CAD
</p><ul><li>1.3500 1.08bn
</li><li>1.3550-60 473mn
</li><li>1.3600 395mn</li><li>1.3650 625mn
</li><li>1.3700 478mn</li></ul>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>447bn is above the expected of around 300bn to be paid for December. Also larger than the 296bn repaid in November. </p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Bitcoin Market picture</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Crypto
market capitalisation rose 2% over the past 24 hours to $858bn. Bitcoin added
2.3% to $17.2K, trading near the top of its range since November 12. The
technical picture remains the same for Bitcoin, and it will need to confirm a
move out of its abnormally narrow range, whichever way it moves.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>In the event
of a further rise, such confirmation would see a consolidation at above $18K,
near the 50-day moving average and local support from June through October. A
downward move could lead to further decline if it sends the price
below $16K.</p><p>Bitcoin News background</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Amid the
collapse of FTX and the crypto market, Coinbase’s revenues could be halved by
2022, the company’s CEO Brian Armstrong said.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>A new CNBC
poll shows that Americans‘ attitudes towards cryptocurrencies have deteriorated
significantly amid the collapse of the Terra ecosystem and the bankruptcy of
cryptocurrency exchange FTX. Only 8% of US residents have a favourable view of
crypto assets.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The Ethereum
team has said it plans to activate the Shanghai hardfork n March 2023.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Popular
Twitter analyst PlanB, author of the stock-to-flow model, reiterated his
confidence in the massive growth of bitcoin in 2023 or at least in 2024.
According to him, BTC will be worth between $100K and $1 million after the next
halving, with the first cryptocurrency expected to bottom in the next three
weeks.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This article was written by <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.fxpro.com/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>FxPro</a>’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Russia’s state-run TASS news agency reporting that:</p><ul><li>Representatives from Russia and United States will meet in Istanbul on Friday,</li><li>the two sides would discuss a set of „difficult questions“ </li></ul><p>No further details at this stage. Tass citing an unnamed source. </p><p>A little more incoming:</p><ul><li>the two sides would discuss a set of „difficult questions“ Including visas, embassy staffing levels and the work of each side’s institutions and agencies abroad, among other unspecified issues.</li></ul>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>If they can’t bring it to the rest of the world, there’s always China. Especially now as Xi has relented on the zero-Covid policy, re-opening demand is something to watch out for and that is going to be a welcome development for Russia and Putin.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Economic growth speed will continue rising</li><li>China economy operating within a reasonable range</li><li>Growth will continue amid implementation of optimised pandemic policies</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>No change to the narrative from China as they continue to reaffirm the above set of policy remarks so far this year. The onshore yuan has seen a significant weakening against the dollar from 6.40 to 7.30 before sticking closer to 7.00 in the past week after another sharp drop as China puts an end to its zero-Covid policy.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>All eyes are on the central bank bonanza next week and with the Fed in focus, the US consumer price inflation report on Tuesday is going to be a massive one before the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. At the stage we are at, inflation data is essentially the new non-farm payrolls.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But before we get to that, we’ll get a teaser of sorts tomorrow via the November producer prices report. You would think that PPI tends not to be a market mover but in a time when inflation numbers mean everything, the data tomorrow will be a big one – as it was last month <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-october-ppi-80-vs-83-expected-20221115/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>So, while broader markets are quiet today with very little to work with, don’t expect that to last when we get to US trading tomorrow.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar is a touch higher but ranges are relatively narrow, so there isn’t much to really comment on. This comes as we see a bit of a bounce in Treasury yields after the plunge yesterday. 10-year yields are up 4 bps on the day to 3.46% but still keeping below the key technical level noted <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/a-bit-of-a-bounce-in-yields-today-but-the-drop-yesterday-has-more-to-it-20221208/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a> after the break in US trading the day before.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Equities remain tepid with European indices little changed. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are up 4 points, or 0.1%, and that also isn’t saying much although the cash market will have a test of its 100-day moving average to contend with later today as pointed out <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurostoxx-futures-01-in-early-european-trading-20221208/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It is shaping up to be a bit of a sideways session as broader markets lack the appetite and conviction ahead of next week’s main events.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>We will get a bit of a taste of things via the US PPI data tomorrow but until then, we may have to just settle for a bit of nothingness in between.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.