It’s Fed day
The FOMC decision is at 1800 GMT with Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later. That’s going to dominate the trading day but there is some important data coming up at the bottom of the hour.

The ECB continues to rebuff the above narrative
There is a coherent message from the ECB this week and that is as what the headline reads out to be. Policymakers have signaled that they will only look to consider any potential changes in September so until then, expect the ECB to keep the status quo.

Latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association for the week ending 11 June 2021
– Prior -3.1%
– Market index 672.4 vs 645.4 prior
– Refinancing index 3,026.6 vs 2,869.2 prior
The prior week’s release can be found . Both purchases and refinancing activity showed a modest rebound in the past week but the trend as of late is still hinting

Will 10-year yields find its way back above 1.50% post-FOMC?
Or are we settling into a new range for the bond market below 1.50% and its 100-day moving average (red line) even as inflation expectations are still elevated.

Kyodo News reports
Tokyo and Osaka are among the two prefectures looking to try and keep some form of tighter restrictions to prevent another virus wave from taking over again but for now, the numbers are showing an improving situation ahead of the Olympics at least.

Forex news from the European trading session – 15 June 2021
Headlines:
Markets:
– USD leads, GBP lags on the day
– European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%

GBP/USD falls to a fresh one-month low of 1.4052
The rangebound trading in cable looks to be breaking now as the dollar climbs across the board going into the North American session.

Dollar holds a modest advance on the session
Elsewhere, the dollar is holding decent gains with GBP/USD testing near-term support at 1.4073 once again while AUD/USD continues to flirt with a heavier drop below 0.7700.

USTR, Katherine Tai, remarks in Brussels
That’s good news and it confirms the earlier report. Whether or not it will last the five years is perhaps a different question.

No details just yet though
She says that:
„This meeting has started with a breakthrough on aircraft. This really opens a new chapter in our relationship because we move from litigation to cooperation – after 17 years of dispute.“
Well, the report earlier suggested that it is a mere temporary resolution but still, I guess that is better