Mixed tones in Europe but US futures are higher
European indices have shed early gains to sit a little lower and mixed on the session but US futures are still hanging on to its advance throughout the day.

Latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association for the week ending 21 May 2021
– +1.2%
The drop in mortgage applications in the past week owes much to a sharp decline in refinancing activity as purchases were seen a little higher compared to the previous week.

EUR/USD falls back below the 25 February high to a low of 1.2233
The euro is struggling to build on upside momentum today and part of that reason may owe to a bit of mixed commentary by the ECB as of late.

How are things shaping up ahead of this month-end
In terms of FX, Citi’s preliminary estimate points to weak USD buying need with the average USD buy signal at 0.35 standard deviations. The only exception is USD/JPY with a signal that slightly exceeds 0.50 standard deviations.

Forex news from the European trading session – 25 May 2021
Headlines:
Markets:
– NZD leads, JPY lags on the day
– European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%

Not much of a technical reprieve for Bitcoin so far
While the declines aren’t extending lower this week, upside momentum has also been rather lacking in Bitcoin – at least in any way that matters from a technical perspective.

EUR/USD hovers at its highest levels since January
There was a bout of dollar weakness as European traders entered earlier, helped by the fact that USD/CNH fell below the 6.40 level to its lowest since 2018.

Latest data released by UK CBI – 25 May 2021
A bit of a miss on the headline reading and that suggests some slowing in retail sales after the flurry of demand seen in April after lockdown measures were lifted. CBI notes that:

Remarks by Ifo economist, Klaus Wolhrabe
Ifo report
Besides that, the message is one of optimism towards the outlook in 2H 2021 with many anticipating a summer reopening and travel across the region.

Forex news from the European trading session – 24 May 2021
Headlines:
Markets:
– EUR leads, GBP lags on the day
– European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%