<ul><li>Prior +2.2%</li><li>Market index 208.1 vs 209.8 prior</li><li>Purchase index 181.0 vs 174.4 prior</li><li>Refinance index 325.5 vs 373.6 prior</li><li>30-year mortgage rate 6.49% vs 6.67% prior</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Mortgage activity declined in the past week but it was a bit of a mixed report with purchases recovering slightly while refinance activity falling sharply. That comes despite another big drop in the average rate of the most popular US home loan, down 18 bps to 6.49%.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Here are some snippets from the latest on the global economy from Citi:</p><ul><li>Global growth to slow to below 2% in 2023</li><li>Sees Fed terminal rate between 5.25% to 5.50%</li><li>Sees 2023 US headline inflation at 4.8%</li><li>Sees US GDP growth of 0.7% next year, China GDP growth of 5.6%</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The firm adds that „we see global performance as likely plagued by ‚rolling‘ country-level recessions through the year ahead“, with their forecasts projecting the UK and Eurozone economies to contract by 1.5% and 0.4% respectively in 2023.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As for the slower growth outlook, the firm is citing continued challenges from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has led to surging inflation and aggressive policy tightening by major central banks in response.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior +10.6%</li><li>Core CPI +5.0% vs +5.0% y/y expected</li><li>Prior +5.0%</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The headline reading may be softer than expected but notice that the core reading remains unchanged from October, holding at a record high. As mentioned <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/heres-a-slight-splotch-to-the-softer-spanish-inflation-report-20221129/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a> yesterday, the softer price pressures are largely to do with a drop in energy costs but we are seeing higher prices be embedded in other areas of the economy and that is reflected by the core reading.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It doesn’t mean an end to the stringent measures but at least the people are being given alternatives now, rather than be forced to endure community testing regardless. These little steps will add up eventually, in a slow progression towards the re-opening in China.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Risk tones are faring better while Treasury yields are a little lower and that is pinning the dollar down as we get stuck into European morning trade today. It’s going to be tough to look into the moves right now as we have seen them reverse in US trading for two days in a row already this week.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Month-end flows are arguably a factor but here’s a look at the technicals as well to try and understand better the price action today, before we get to Fed chair Powell’s speech later on.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>EUR/USD is up 0.5% to 1.0380 but faces key resistance in the form of its 200-day moving average (blue line) at 1.0372 with large option expiries also potentially a factor at 1.0370-80 today. That might keep price action somewhat anchored but again, it is all about looking at the key resistance level above and month-end flows could make it tricky in the session ahead.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, USD/JPY is flattish around 138.68 currently and still playing around the levels mentioned <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-hangs-on-in-there-but-only-just-20221130/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a> earlier.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>GBP/USD is up 0.4% to 1.2000 but price action is still very much caught in between its key daily moving averages in the bigger picture:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In the short-term, there is some minor support closer to 1.1950 with resistance sitting up there in the form of its 100-hour moving average at 1.2046 currently.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, USD/CAD is down 0.3% to 1.3530 while AUD/USD is up 0.6% to 0.6730 as risk sentiment holds up. The latter is still facing resistance from its 61.8 Fib retracement level at 0.6767 but at least working its way back above its 100-day moving average (red line) at 0.6685:</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s hard to tell whether or not this is in part some relaxation of stringent measures or just the fact that close contacts of Covid cases under medical observation has surpassed 1 million persons across the country in the past two weeks.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>For some context, close contacts in China are typically brought to a „centralised isolation place“ – more often than not, it means a hotel – for about five days before another three days of observation at home.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The change for the southern province of Guangdong is only for close contacts of Covid cases who fulfill certain conditions to quarantine at home. I would assume it means having sufficient room to isolate from other family members within the vicinity.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Economic confidence 93.7 vs 93.5 expected</li><li>Prior 92.5; revised to 92.7</li><li>Industrial confidence -2.0 vs -0.5 expected</li><li>Prior -1.2</li><li>Services confidence 2.3 vs 2.0 expected</li><li>Prior 1.8; revised to 2.1</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That’s a slight improvement in euro area economic sentiment, which is a welcome development ahead of the winter. Slowing inflation pressures have certainly helped and if we do observe milder weather in the coming months, it will help with the optimism. That said, even with all of this, the outlook remains challenging with recession risks continuing to build.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The monthly reading shows a 0.3% decline in inflation and all of this matches up with what we have seen from the other state readings seen <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/bavaria-november-cpi-109-vs-110-yy-prior-20221129/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Equities are barely holding on to the optimism from earlier, owing to Chinese markets bouncing back on re-opening hopes today. European indices are a bit more mixed now with US futures seen trimming gains, now only up 9 points, or 0.23%, on the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Bonds are bid though, benefiting from softer Spanish and German inflation readings so far on the session. 10-year German bund yields are down 9.4 bps to 1.898% while 10-year Treasury yields are down 3.6 bps to 3.666% currently.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>All of this is translating to a softer dollar on the balance of things, with the greenback losing ground after an impressive showing in US trading yesterday. <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/month-end-model-points-to-usd-downside-but-other-factors-favour-usd-bounce-td-20221128/“ target=“_blank“>Month-end talk seems to be suggesting that dollar selling is the play</a>, and that is also a factor for consideration before we move over to December on Thursday.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>EUR/USD is up 0.3% to 1.0368 but perhaps more crucially, the pair is now trading back under its 200-day moving average (blue line) at 1.0377 after yesterday’s fall upon nearing 1.0500:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>USD/JPY is down by 0.6% to near 138.00 as yields look heavier so far today. However, sellers will need to do more work in order to crack below daily support at around 138.45 as well as 137.65 currently:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, GBP/USD continues to hold in between its key daily moving averages but is now also finding itself caught in between its 100 and 200-hour moving averages in a state of flux so far this week:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, AUD/USD is keeping higher by 1.1% today to 0.6725 and holding back above its 100-day moving average (red line) at 0.6685. That is a positive development but buyers are still largely struggling to break through resistance from the 61.8 Fib retracement level at 0.6767 in the bigger picture.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior 66.79k</li><li>Net consumer credit £0.77 billion</li><li>Prior £0.75 billion</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Mortgage activity eases further with the effective’ interest rate on newly drawn mortgages seen increasing by 25 bps to 3.09% in October. Meanwhile, net borrowing of mortgage debt by individuals decreased from £5.9 billion to £4.0 billion on the month. As for consumer credit growth, the annual reading decreased slightly from 7.1% in September to 7.0% last month.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.