<p>The price of WTI crude oil futures are settling at $87.90. That’s down -$1.18 or -1.52%. The high price reached $88.74. The low price extended to $87.10.</p><p>Looking at the hourly chart, the price high this week reached up to a swing area going back to early October between $89.72 and $90.37. The high price stalled ahead of that area. On the rotation back to the downside, the price return to a intraday range swing area near $86.98. That was also near the 38.2% retracement of the October trading range. Move back below that level and below the 100 hour moving average currently at $86.62 (see blue line in the chart below) would tilt the bias more to the downside and have traders looking toward the 200 hour moving average and $85.62.</p><p>Conversely stay above and a rotation back toward the $90 level would be eyed.</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

<p>The week is winding down in the US stocks in what was the „Big Week“ for earnings. </p><p>Safe to say, the week was not as bad as the market expected. Looking at the major indices, the indices are currently showing:</p><ul><li>Dow up 5.52%</li><li>S&P up 3.67%</li><li>Nasdaq up 1.87%.</li></ul><p>So how did the list of the biggest names do relative to the S&P index?</p><p>Below is a list of most of the „biggest“ names that announced earnings this week. By no means does it represent all the names, but safe to say it shows the success of the week. Of the 51 companies on the list 33 of them outperformed the S&P, while 18 did worse than the S&P. </p><p>The biggest gainer was Wingstop which announce better earnings and lower costs. The price of chicken wings have moved lower, but safe to say, Wingstop have increased prices and benefitted from the higher revenues, without the corresponding higher costs. </p><p>The biggest loser was Meta which is dealing with costs soaring as a result of their plunge into to so-called metaverse. </p><p>Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft are also lower as earnings and forward guidance has started to weigh on the stock prices for those past mega stars (and thought to be safe havens). </p><p>Those companies also suffer from the „big number“ problem. On the margin, it is simply hard to keep on increasing revenues, or customers (or whatever metric) at a double digit pace. When limits start to be met because growth trajectories slow, there can also impact on multiples as investors start to discount the trajectory of those future earnings. </p><p>When earnings are lower or slowing, and multiples are lower, that is the recipe for lower stock prices.</p><p>In the first phase of the price decline, we saw the declines in the ultra speculative issues that had multiples well over market averages. This week was about some of the mega cap safe players feel some of the impact of mulitiples being to high given growth trajectories. </p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was 10.9%</li><li>HICP m/m +1.1% vs +0.5% expected</li><li>Prelim CPI m/m +0.9% vs +0.6% expected</li><li>Prelim CPI y/y +10.4% vs +10.1% expected</li></ul><p>The regional numbers that have already been reported have been hot so this isn’t a huge surprise but it highlights the challgen the ECB face and that the 50 bps priced in for December 15 isn’t enough.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-governor-kuroda-20221028/“>BOJ Governor Kuroda says will not hesitate to ease further if needed</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-villeroy-says-no-obligation-to-raise-rates-by-75bps-at-the-december-meeting-20221028/“>ECB’s Villeroy says no obligation to raise rates by 75bps at the December meeting</a></li><li>France October CPI 7.1% y/y vs 6.4% expected</li><li>Spain October CPI 7.3% vs 8.1% expected</li><li>Italy October CPI 12.8% vs 9.9% expected</li><li>German Q3 flast GDP +0.3% vs -0.2% expected</li><li>Spain Q3 GDP +0.2% vs +0.3% expected</li><li>Eurozone economic sentiment 92.5 vs 92.5 expected</li><li>Swiss KOF October indicator 90.9 vs 93.2 expected</li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold down $12 to $1651</li><li>Brent crude down 47 cents to $96.49</li><li>S&P 500 futures down 19 points to 3801</li><li>German 10-year yields up 13 bps to 2.11%</li><li>USD leads, JPY lags</li></ul><p>The euro has largely hung with the US dollar as we await German inflation data at the top of the hour. Returns so far in Europe have been hot and that will complicate the ECB’s job, though the market may be looking beyond October.</p><p>In Japan the yen is weak but did Kuroda open the door a crack to a hawkish shift when he said that that the underlying rise in inflation is likely to heighten medium and long-term inflation expectations and lead to a sustained rise in inflation accompanied by wage gains? I wonder if the market eventually circles back to that theme.</p><p>For now, bonds are in charge with rising yields rekindling the US dollar fire. Look for PCE to dictate the moves in US trading.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>WSJ Fedwatcher Nick TImiraos is tweeting about economic data at the moment and warning that PCE inflation „is expected to be on the high side“.</p><p>Given that he leaked a softening in the Fed stance on Friday, everything he writes gets extra scrutiny. That said, no one is leaking economic data to him. He’s refering to the consensus estimate on core at +0.5%, which he explicitly references.</p><p>Timiraos also highlights the employment cost index for Q3, which will be released at the same time as the PCE report. It’s lagged data but something the Fed has said it’s watching closely.</p><p>In any case, the market is smart enough to understand that Timiraos isn’t getting economic data ahead of time. The US dollar has been sliding in the past few minutes, which is the opposite of what you would get if today’s inflation data was hot.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>Today’s Eurozone inflation numbers highlight the tough task that ECB President Christine Lagarde faces in getting prices under control.</p><p>Yesterday’s 75 basis point hike was expect but the statement removed a reference to ’several‘ meetings of hikes and that sparked speculation that December could be close to the end of the cycle. The terminal rate is now priced close to 2.75%, which isn’t terribly restrictive.</p><p>Contrast that with today’s Italian CPI number at 4.0% m/m compared to 1.4% expected. That pushes the EU-harmonized y/y rate to 12.8% from 9.9% expected.</p><p>In Lagarde’s home country of France today, inflation rose 1.3% m/m compared to 0.6% expected with tye y/y number rising 6.2% and plenty more in the pipeline.</p><p>A lone bright spot so far is Spain where prices rose 7.3% y/y compared to 8.0% expected but we’re still waiting on Germany. So far the regional numbers have been hot and point to a national number around 0.7% compared to 0.5% expected. We’ll get the data at the top of the hour.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>The yen is struggling today after the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged and Governor Kuroda offered no hints of any change to yield curvey control. USD/JPY is up 144 pips to 147.72.</p><p>The bond market is also pressuring the pair higher with US 10-year yields up 8 bps to 4.02%, reversing most of yesterday’s move. </p><p>It’s been a volatile stretch for the yen after last week’s intervention. The decline below 145.50 was short-lived and the pair is now trying to reassert itself.</p><p>The next driver will be the US PCE report at 8: 30 am ET. Yesterday’s GDP data included lower than anticipated inflation numbers and that’s a hint that today’s PCE will be slower than anticipated, at least on the headline number.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/welcome-to-ecb-day-20221027/“>Welcome to ECB day</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurusd-runs-up-against-key-resistance-with-ecb-in-focus-today-20221027/“>EUR/USD runs up against key resistance with ECB in focus today</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/equities-sluggish-as-bond-yields-keep-higher-so-far-today-20221027/“>Equities sluggish as bond yields keep higher so far today</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-november-gfk-consumer-sentiment-419-vs-419-expected-20221027/“>Germany November GfK consumer sentiment -41.9 vs -41.9 expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-october-cbi-retailing-reported-sales-18-vs-20-prior-20221027/“>UK October CBI retailing reported sales +18 vs -20 prior</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>USD leads, AUD lags on the day</li><li>European equities lower; S&P 500 futures flat</li><li>US 10-year yields up 5.2 bps to 4.067%</li><li>Gold down 0.2% to $1,661.95</li><li>WTI crude up 0.3% to $88.20</li><li>Bitcoin down 0.7% to $20,604</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It was a quiet session for the most part as markets gear towards the ECB policy meeting decision later at 1215 GMT.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>After a rally earlier in the week, bonds are losing some ground today with yields pushing higher. In turn, that is pinning equities lower while the dollar is benefiting from the move as it finds firmer footing on the week.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>10-year Treasury yields are up over 5 bps to 4.067% with the high during the session hitting 4.086%. That is putting pressure on Nasdaq futures and keeping S&P 500 futures more flattish on the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>EUR/USD ran up against its 100-day moving average at 1.0087 in Asia trading, before falling to around 1.0030 in European trading as a firmer dollar also helped to nudge the pair lower.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>GBP/USD is also pressed down from 1.1630 to 1.1550 during the session, though buyers are still in a good spot after the break above 1.1500 yesterday. Meanwhile, USD/JPY was dragged down to 145.10 early on before rebounding strongly to keep at the highs now near 146.60 as the pair also recovered alongside the firmer dollar.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The antipodeans are the notable laggards with AUD/USD down 0.7% to 0.6450 after a run up against 0.6500 earlier in the day. Falling iron ore prices also isn’t helping with aussie sentiment today, alongside the more sluggish risk mood. NZD/USD is down 0.5% to test 0.5800 after having hit a high of 0.5870 at the end of the Asia Pacific session.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s all over to the ECB now to determine the next steps for markets.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>10-year Treasury yields are at the highs for the day, up 7 bps to 4.084%. The selling in bonds is eating into a big chunk of yesterday’s gains and that is seeing stocks pressured, with Nasdaq futures now down 0.6%. S&P 500 futures are also down 0.1% now and the pressure is also keeping up among European indices. The DAX and CAC 40 are both down 0.8% at the moment.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In turn, the mood is seeing the dollar find firmer footing after the selloff since Friday. EUR/USD is down 0.4% to 1.0035 but still stuck in there in between large option expiries at parity and below its 100-day moving average as noted earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurusd-runs-up-against-key-resistance-with-ecb-in-focus-today-20221027/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>. The ECB is still the main focus for both the euro and broader market sentiment today.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, USD/JPY has also <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-erases-early-drop-to-turn-flat-on-the-day-20221027/“ target=“_blank“>erased earlier losses to keep flattish</a> close to 147.30 currently while GBP/USD is down 0.5% to 1.1565 now. The aussie is the laggard, down 0.8% to 0.6447 against the dollar as a 4% drop in Dalian iron ore prices is also weighing on the currency alongside the more sluggish sentiment above.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior -20</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>UK retailers report a rebound in October with the monthly retail sales balance bouncing back to growth after a slump in September. CBI notes that:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“Retail sales volumes recovered to growt at a firm pace this month, but retailers continue to face a challenging operating environment due to rising costs, higher interest rates, and labour shortage.“</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.