Russia-Ukraine tensions continue to be the key driver of sentiment as markets are waiting on any further developments to run with. Risk tones were more positive yesterday but we’re seeing a lack of follow through as the siege on Kyiv continues while talks are reportedly going to take place once agai

Prior 7.0%

The jobless rate ticks lower once again and that just reaffirms further improvement in labour market conditions in the region. Compared to December, the number of unemployed persons in the euro area decreased by roughly 214,000.

Prior +2.9%
PPI +30.6% vs +27.0% y/y expected
Prior +26.2%

That’s a big surge in producer prices and it just reaffirms stronger price pressures in the euro area economy to start the year. This will continue to feed through to consumer inflation so that will be a worry for the trend in

I think despite all the remarks earlier, this is pretty much the key takeaway. In that things will continue as they are even though there might be talks taking place between Moscow and Kyiv.

That ties to what Lavrov was touting earlier here. At this point, I think risk assets would rather be there the prospect of talks and not actual talks taking place itself. In my opinion, I don’t think either side will concede anything on talks so if anything, it risks a communication breakdown. But

Prior -13.1%Market index vs 466.4 priorPurchase index vs 250.7 priorRefinancing index vs 1,677.7 prior30-year mortgage rate vs 4.06% prior

But first thing’s first, the exclusion does not cover Sberbank and Gazprombank – both of which are main channels for payments for Russian oil and gas, in which EU countries are still buying despite the ongoing conflict.The seven banks in question instead are Russia’s second largest bank, VTB, alongs

Eurozone inflation in February has been a negative surprise
Russian invasion of Ukraine will have implications, ECB ye to fully assess them
The most significant risks are energy shocks

Just look at oil and energy prices today and you’ll get the gist. It’s going to be a painful pill to

The bloc is largely expected to stick with the existing plan for a 400k bpd oil output increase in April, so they will likely recommend that and move on to the ministerial meeting right after. The JMMC meeting was scheduled for 1130 GMT earlier but has been pushed to 1200 GMT now.

It’s a case of staring at each other and waiting for someone to make the first move, with Russia claiming that the Ukraine side is being the one not wanting to come to the negotiating table. This also further invalidates earlier reports that talks could be possible some time at the end of this week.