The breakout in bond yields isn’t exactly going to plan.The ugly turn in the risk trade is hitting hard with 10-year yields now down 8 basis points to 1.749%. Importantly, that’s below the old 1.77% breakout line and if we close down here it will invalidate the breakout on the weekly candle.

Headlines:Commodity currencies hold lower as risk stays more defensive on the dayOil looks to be faltering at the final hurdle this weekUK December retail sales -3.7% vs -0.6% m/m expectedChina premier Li says will not resort to flood-like stimulusPBOC calls on lenders to extend more credit to compa

S&P 500 futures flatNasdaq futures -0.3%Dow futures +0.1%This has a familiar ring to it as per the last two sessions in Europe (19/1 and 20/1). US futures are looking a fair bit less dire as we approach the handover to US trading, but will it falter at the end of the day as it has previously?Risk se

Will appropriately step up policy support for the economyThese are typical remarks and ones that we have heard before but context matters. This comes after the PBOC cut rates earlier in the week and also moved to cut the SLF by 0.1% from 17 January. As such, it hints at a pause in terms of added eas

The firm notes that:“The oil price required to trigger sufficient demand erosion appears higher than we estimated. Hence, we raise our Brent forecast to $100/bbl by 3Q, up from ~$90/bbl before.“Well, that certainly might come but it’s still very early in the year and a lot can change in the months a

It’s all about the risk mood still so far today and with equities looking sluggish once again after yesterday’s drop, there isn’t much comfort for risk trades on the day. The yen and franc are staying bid in European morning trade, with pressure seen on commodity currencies once again.
USD/JPY is ho

The hope for France and many other countries facing the omicron wave is that infections will peak in late January or early February and then tail off. So far, we’re still heading towards that peak for France and it is a bit concerning as hospitalisations and intensive care admissions are starting to

The
Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains at 24 for the third day, matching the
extreme fear assessment.

 

However,
such a low index reading this time does little to describe the dynamics of a
market whose total capitalisation has been moving between $1.95 trillion and
$2.00 trillion since Tuesda

Financial
markets rebounded on Thursday after crucial US indices fell about 1% a day
earlier. The Nasdaq 100 index closed down 1.3% and moved into a correction
phase, completing more than 10% below the peak. However, this is still a formal
movement, and the primary battle between the bulls and the

Just a couple of large ones to take note of for EUR/USD, as highlighted in bold.In general, the expiries layered through from 1.1300 to 1.1360 are key attraction points so that should keep price action more anchored before rolling off later in the day. There’s not much else notable on the board b