Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.3%
Retail sales +7.8% y/y
Prior +1.4%; revised to +1.7%

A surprise growth in euro area retail sales, indicating that consumer demand is still somewhat holding up going into year-end. That despite omicron risks, though we’ll see how the fresh restrictions may

This comes as the country reports over 4,000 new COVID-19 cases today – the first time since September last year. Japan prime minister, Fumio Kishida, has said that the government will now decide on quasi-state of emergency declarations for parts of the country tomorrow. I would expect said measures

January is typically the best month for gold as prices tend to rise in the lead up to the Lunar New Year. That has been the case in 7 of the last 8 years but gold is off to a rough start this time in 2022. I noted previously in December as to why this time around, things could be different for gold:

This just reaffirms that the national reading later will likely come in above 5.0% y/y, with the estimate likely to match the November reading of +5.2% y/y. That will just keep the pressure on ECB policymakers as inflation pressures are still elevated going into the turn of the year.

Prior +5.4%
PPI +23.7% y/y
Prior +21.9%

Another month, another surge in producer prices as cost pressures continue to tick higher. That will translate to higher consumer inflation so as long as this remains elevated, it is tough to see inflation pressures easing despite a bit of a lag

Composite PMI 53.6 vs 53.2 prelim

That’s the lowest reading since February for services activity as pandemic restrictions weighed heavily. That said, there are some positives as job creation remains robust and growth expectations are also still more positive. Roughly 55% of
the survey pan

 

Despite some mixed tones from Wall Street yesterday and more tepid tones earlier, European indices are keeping slightly higher once again today. That sees the positive form to start the new year stretch further, for now at least.
Eurostoxx +0.1%
Germany DAX +0.6%
France CAC 40 +0.5%

That implies a roughly over 6% upside from current levels. It doesn’t sound like much but bear in mind that the case scenario likely factors in the more volatile moves that we’ll be seeing throughout the year.In any case, here are some forecasts for the S&P 500 from the other houses:Morgan Stanley –

This comes after the latest round of mass testing saw just 35 new COVID-19 cases reported today, down from 95 the day before. That said, local authorities did mention earlier in the week that any easing of lockdown measures will only come when ‚zero social transmission‘ is achieved. So, we’ll have t