Archiv für den Monat: Mai 2022
Personalausfälle: Warten statt Fliegen: Erhebliche Engpässe durch Mangelwirtschaft in der Luftfahrt
The CEO of the world’s second-largest alternatives firm is optimistic about a light recession
Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Deere, Foot Locker, Palo Alto Networks and more
The CEO of the world’s second-largest alternatives firm is optimistic about a light recession
Bitcoin Outlook: Stocks and Cryptos Struggle to Rebound, FOMC Looms
Australian Dollar Outlook: It’s All About the Big Dollar
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US stocks recover but fall for the seventh straight week
Fed Bullard: We have to get inflation under control. We have a good plan to do so
Eurozone May consumer confidence flash reading -21.1 vs -21.5 expected
ECB’s Visco: We must get out of negative rates without adding uncertainty to the market
Baker Hughes US oil rig count 576 vs 563 prior
ECB’s Villeroy: The inflation fight means normalizing interest rates
ECB’s Nagel: Negative interest rates are a thing of the past
Markets:
Gold up $3 to $1844
US 10-year yields down 7 bps to 2.79%
WTI crude oil up 95-cents to $110.83
S&P 500 up 0.1%
Nasdaq -0.3%
NZD leads, EUR lags
The weekly decline in the S&P 500 was the seventh in a row, which is the longest streak since 2001. The worst-ever streaks were 8 weeks in 2001 and 1970. I’ve attached from forward returns after 6, 7 and 8 weeks below from Compound Advisors.
There’s plenty of focus on stocks at the moment. The S&P 500 opened higher then was down more than 2% at the lows but recovered very late in the day to finish fractionally higher.
What’s interesting is that the correlation with FX has broken down.The dollar was generally softer today and yen crosses were largely higher. That’s a shift from the recent trend.
Bonds are also offering a different tone with yields down for the second week in a row. That might reflect risk aversion but it at least makes the argument that deleveraging has run its course, at least for now.
In terms of intraday moves, it was a chop in FX. The price action was ultimately sideways on most fronts in New York trade, though cable closed near the highs and the euro closer to the lows.
There was a steady bid in the kiwi. It along with the Australian dollar both tested the Asian lows and held, then moved up.
CAD lagged its cousins but not dramatically. Oil was higher once again as the incredible resilience continued. That wasn’t much of a help for the loonie though as concerns about housing mount. Note that Canada is off on Monday for a holiday.
Have a great weekend.
Stocks snatch victory from the jaws of defeat (at least for the S&P and Dow).
Can the dollar retracement run?
It’s a picture that looks more like a broader turn than anything we’re seeing in the stock market, though some of the strength into Friday’s close is promising.
I’m not a fan of the dollar index but it paints a good picture at the moment and shows the potential for a retracement, even within the ongoing trend.
A dip to 101 would be a standard-sort of 38.2% retracement from the February lows.On the flipside, the the old high combined with the 2017 high formed something of a double top and we might just be seeing a retest of that before another leg higher.What I think we’re seeing play out in the bigger picture is that a global central banks are being forced to join the Fed in tightening. It may not be at the same pace but there wasn’t much hiking priced in for Europe but now there is. So far the BOJ is holding the line but the SNB showed cracks this week.Secondly, the US dollar benefited from a special bid due to technology stocks. That bubble is bursting at the moment and it will draw money out of the US during the next wave of investing, which will be in value stocks.