Archiv für den Monat: Mai 2022
Stephen Roach calls stagflation his base case, warns market is unprepared for the consequences
Dow advances more than 100 points in Friday rebound but heads for 8th straight losing week
Stocks making the biggest moves after the bell: Palo Alto Networks, Ross Stores, Deckers & more
Palo Alto Networks stock jumps after company lifts full-year forecast
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar mixed, set for first weekly loss in seven
ECB’s Visco: June rate hike out of the question, July perhaps the time to start
ECB’s Muller: The focus needs to be on fighting high inflation
ECB’s Kazaks says hopes that first rate hike will take place in July
BOE’s Pill: Policy tightening still has further to run
Japan PM Kishida: Rapid movements in the yen currency are undesirable
Russian gas flow to Finland to be halted on 21 May at 0400 GMT
Shanghai feel the economic pinch of lockdown measures in April
UK April retail sales +1.4% vs -0.2% m/m expected
Germany April PPI +2.8% vs +1.4% m/m expected
Markets:
NZD leads, JPY lags on the day
European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 1.1%
US 10-year yields up 1.4 bps to 2.869%
Gold up 0.1% to $1,843.42
WTI crude up 0.2% to $112.45
Bitcoin up 0.5% to $30,333
It was a quiet session in terms of headline as markets kept steadier overall after a lot of pushing and pulling on the week.
Equities tracked higher, with European indices posting gains of around 1.4% to 1.8% across the board while US futures also extended their advance to over 1% on the session. That said, it will still take a miracle for US stocks to prevent a seventh consecutive weekly decline and that says a lot about sentiment at the moment despite the light respite.
The mood in FX is also not hinting at much although the dollar looks set for a weekly decline – the first in seven.
EUR/USD is little changed around 1.0560-70 levels while USD/JPY is hugging the 128.00 level for the most part with Treasury yields mostly little changed.
The pound saw a decent recovery from 1.2450 to near 1.2500 before sellers stepped in again near the figure level to keep gains in check. Elsewhere, AUD/USD is seen advancing to 0.7050-60 and a weekly close above 0.7000 will be a welcome development for buyers.Besides that, the Chinese yuan continued its snapback on the week, set for its best weekly performance since de-pegging from the dollar back in 2005.
Some food for thought:
US Data and ECB Weigh on Markets
New York, should have been the usual bounce back day for stocks? Instead,
while there was some attempt, the market settled back toward the previous day’s
lows.
This is a
somewhat precarious situation and encourages our view that the ‚day and
technical traders‘ were caught enthusiastically long. While the real money
funds were very happy to take advantage of the liquidity provided and continue
to sell down their portfolios.
It is a bear
market. Has been all year. US data was worrying in that Existing Home Sales fell
another 2.4%, and New Jobless Claims leapt to 218,000. This remains a low and
good number, but it did exhibit a bit of a break to the upside which could
again indicate the tide is most definitely turning down for the US economy.
The ECB
wants to move toward tightening, or so the ’talk’ goes, but it is just way too
late for the ECB who was focussed on being popular, and is just now starting to
chase the inflation wave that has already inundated the region. This will
provide a moment of support for the Euro, but a bit of a ’snowflake in summer’
rally, really. ECB rates will fall further behind US levels, even if the ECB
starts to raise.
Additionally,
there is that small thing of war on the doorstep and energy supply concerns
recession likelihood.
This content
may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty
and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information
provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation,
forecast or other information supplied by any third-party. This content is
information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice
on which you can rely.
This article was written by
Clifford Bennett, Chief Economist at ACY Securities.
Key Trading Levels to Watch on May 20
Watch the video for the key trading levels for AUDJPY,
AUDUSD, EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD, NZDJPY, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, USD
Index, and S&P 500.
Key Trading Levels – AUDJPY, AUDUSD, EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD, NZDJPY, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, USD Index, & S&P 500 from ACY Securities Australia on Vimeo.
Read
the updated analysis below:
· AUDJPY has rallied
back to the 90.29 monthly resistance level.
· AUDUSD has rallied
back to the 0.7030-51 daily resistance area.
· EURJPY has
rallied back to the 135.51 daily resistance level after finding support at the
134.14 monthly support level.
· EURUSD has advanced
and tested the 1.0600 level.
· GBPJPY has rallied
back to the 159.61 daily resistance level after finding support at the 158.21
monthly support level.
· GBPUSD has rallied
and retested the 1.2500 level.
· NZDJPY
has
reversed at the 82.49 monthly resistance level and is now targeting 79.44 last
week’s low.
· NZDUSD
has
rallied back to the 0.6380 weekly resistance level.
· USDCAD continues
to find support at the 1.2800 level.
·
USDJPY has declined down to the 127.51 daily support level.
· USD Index has
closed back below the 103.81 monthly resistance level.
· S&P 500 has
declined down to test last week’s low.
This content
may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty
and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information
provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation,
forecast or other information supplied by any third-party. This content is
information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice
on which you can rely.This article was written by Duncan
Cooper – ACY Securities Senior Market Strategist & Trading Mentor.
USD/JPY Volatility Heats Up, Dollar Index Tumbles
Equity wipeout has triggered ‚contrarian buy signal‘, says BofA
BofA notes that last week observed $5.2 billion exiting world equities funds, while global bond funds saw $12.3 billion leave – marking a seventh straight week of outflows.
For some context, the BofA ‚Bull & Bear‘ indicator hints at an „unambiguous contrarian buy“ when it falls below 2.0: