himRebound. US stocks move higher today, but still down on the week
Silver trades to the lowest level since July 2020 on dollar buying and bearish technicals
WTI crude oil futures settle at $110.49
Oil is now higher for the week. Why that’s so remarkable
Baker Hughes US oil rig count 563 vs 557 prior
Fed’s Mester: Inflation risks to the upside given Ukraine war/China lockdown
European major indices close with solid gains
More from Kashkari: Inflation is much too high
Fed’s Kashkari: We will do what we need to do to bring inflation down
Rising yields highlight the difficult backdrop
UMich May prelim consumer sentiment 59.1 vs 64.0 expected
Gold falls through $1800 to the lowest since early February
The AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins
US April import prices 0.0% m/m vs +0.6% expected
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar lightly lower, risk bounces

It was Friday the 13th but the day was not a scary one for the markets. After sharp declines in the US stocks, bond yields and crypto coming into the day, today saw stocks rebound, yields moved back higher and bitcoin even rallied.
Fundamentally, however, there was a scare as the UMichigan preliminary consumer sentiment tumbled to 59.1 vs 64.0 estimate. That was the lowest level in 10 years.
Looking at the components they 2 showed weakness with current conditions in the expectations both falling sharply and inflation expectations remaining steady at high levels:

Current conditions 63.6 vs 70.5 expected
Expectations 56.3 vs 63.0 expected
1-year inflation expectations 5.4% vs 5.4% prior
5-10 year inflation expectations 3.0% vs 3.0% prior

In the forex market today, the USD retraced some of the gains seen of late. The greenback moved lower vs. all the major currencies with the exception of the JPY.

The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies

The AUD, CAD and NZD were the strongest of the majors as risk on sentiment increased. The JPY – which traded to yet another 20 year high on Monday before reversing to the downside on Tuesday to Thursday, rebounded back higher today on the increased risk tone and exit out of the relative safety of the JPY.
In other markets:

Spot gold fell another $10.89 -0.61% at $1811.72. The low price today did below the $1800 level for the 1st time since February 4. Last Friday, the price closed at $1882.99. The decline rate presents a 3.82% the fall for the current week.
Silver rebounded today after the short fall this week. the spot level rose $0.41 or 2.06% $21.07. That compares to a close a week ago at $22.33. The $1.26 decline represents a -5.6% fall for the week.
WTI crude oil futures are trading at $110.13 near the 5 PM level. That’s up around $4.03 on the day. The settlement price for the week was at $110.49

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In the US stock market, the sentiment was more positive today after the S&P index got within a whisker of -20% from the all-time high during yesterday’s trade (at the low for the week, they S&P was down -19.92%).
The gains today were led by the NASDAQ index which rose 3.82%. The NASDAQ index has been hit the hardest in the move down in 2022 with the index reaching a low of –31.48% from the all-time high at session lows yesterday. The broader NASDAQ and S&P index were still lower for the 6th consecutive week, while the Dow industrial average fell for the 7th consecutive week.
In trading today, the major indices all gapped higher and did not trade lower on the day which was a breath of fresh air.

US stock indices closed higher today

In the US debt market, after declines from Monday’s highs into today’s trading, the yields along the yield curve saw a rebound back to the upside. Fed members this week continued to stress that rates would go higher until they reached a more neutral level around 2.5%. With the current yield at 1.0%, that leaves room for at least another 150 basis points. Most expressed the desire to raise ratees by 50 basis points the next 2 meetings. After that there is some debate. Fed’s Bullard, the most hawkish of members, said this week that he would like to see to the Fed to tighten to 3.5% by the end of the year. Others are more in the 2.5% camp but would be willing to increase the rates if warranted. This week, the CPI data showed a higher than expected increase (although the rate was lower from the previous month).  With crude oil prices higher and gasoline price also moving higher ahead of the Memorial Day holiday, the hopes for relief from lower oil prices does not seem encouraging.  That could lead to a more tight Fed, but could also lead to slower growth at the same time.

US yields moved higher

 Hope you all have  a good weekend.  Thank you for your support.

The major US stock indices are closing sharply higher on the day. That’s good news. The not so good news is that for the week they are all lower.For the NASDAQ and S&P index the index closed lower for the 6th consecutive week. For the Dow industrial average fell for the 7th consecutive week. The final numbers for the day are showing:Dow industrial average up 466.36 points or 1.47% at 32196.67S&P index up 93.81 points or 2.39% at 4023.90NASDAQ index up 434.05 points or 3.82% at 11805.01Russell 2000 up 53.28 points or 3.06% in 1792.66For the trading week:Dow industrial average fell -2.14%S&P index fell -2.40%NASDAQ index fell -2.81%.From all time highs:Dow industrial average is down -12.87%. The low the index was down -15.49% from the all-time high to the site below.S&P index is down -16.49%. At the low the index was down -19.92%, just short of the bear market level at -20.0%NASDAQ index is down -27.18%. At the low this week the index was down -31.48%.

Silver falls to lowest level since July 2020 The price of silver has been on a sharp move to the downside. Since it’s last peak at $26.21, the price has been down 16 of the last 18 trading days. Today, the price made a new cycle low but has seen a rebound and trades higher on the day. The low price today reached $20.46 before rebounding. The price is currently at $20.99 . The run from the high on April 18 to low today subtracted $5.75 from the price or near -22%. The sharply higher dollar along with negative technicals have helped to push the price lower. Technically, looking at the daily chart above, on April 25 the price fell below the converged 100 and 200 day moving averages. Earlier on March 30, the price bounced off its 200 day moving average. The fall below both it and the 100 and 200 day MA turned the buyers to sellers. More recently, this week the price fell below a technical area between $21.429 and $22.01. It would now take a move above that swing area to give the buyers a victory. Absent that and the sellers are more in control. Drilling to the hourly chart below, the trend to the downside has been able to stay mostly below its 200 hour moving average. There were brief move above that moving average on May 5 (on 2 Separate occasions) but those breaks failed and by May 6, the price has moved below the 100 hour moving average and has stayed below that moving average since then. The current 100 hour MA comes in at $21.36. A move above that level, and then the 200 hour MA (blue and green lines) at $21.938, is needed to give the buyers more control. The 200 hour MA is near the high of the swing area on the daily chart at $22.01. Getting above $22.00 is therefore a key target to get to and through on move higher next week. Absent that, and the sellers remain in full control. Silver has trended lower

Crude oil is near the topside trend line on the daily chart

WTI crude futures are up for the 3rd straight week after squeezing above the closing level from last week at $109.72. Today the price settled at $110.49.  That is up $4.36 or 4.11% on the day. For the week the prices up $0.77 after dipping as low as $98.20 and trading as high as $110.64.
Looking at the daily chart  above, the price is trading right around and a downward sloping topside trend line (give or take a few cents).  The price did inch above that level level at the high today.  The trendline will be a key barometer going into the trading week next week. Move above would be more bullish. Stay below, and we could see a rotation back to the downside.
At the low this week from Wednesday’s trade, the price tested the lower trend line and bounced.
So for the week, the trend lines on the daily chart have been instrumental in up and down week. The price is closing near the topside trend line which gives the buyers the better feeling. However, if that resistance holds, the „ups and downs“, may reenter a „down“ bias next week. 

USDCHF is up for the 6th consecutive week The USDCHF is on track for the 6th straight week of solid gains as the week comes to close. Since the last bottom when the USDCHF bottomed at 0.91942 during the week of March 27, the prices has moved up 853 pips to the high reached yesterday and today near 1.00486. In extending higher, the USDCHF price moved above a swing area between 1.00137 and 1.0027. The current price is trading above both those levels at 1.0032. Stay above the 1.0027 level is the most bullish bias for the pair off of the weekly chart. Of course the 1.0000 parity level is also a close support level that would keep the buyers satisfied, while keeping the sellers nervous. Drilling to the hourly chart below, a move back below the parity level would have traders looking toward what was a ceiling established from Monday and Thursday (see red numbered circles in the chart below). That ceiling area came between 0.99613 and 0.9974. Also near that level is the rising 100 hour moving average which cuts across at 0.99617. The combination increases the areas importance going forward. With parity a key natural support level, the ceiling from earlier this week down to 0.99613, and the rising 100 hour moving average at 0.99617, those 3 levels would need to be broken to give sellers more control and potentially define a high. Absent that, and the buyers remain in control and the trend remains to the upside. USDCHF broke above the ceiling from M-Th yesterday