- Dollar holds more mixed with month-end, quarter-end in focus
- Risk appetite sapped as the session gets underway
- France June preliminary CPI +5.8% vs +5.7% y/y expected
- Germany June unemployment change +133k vs -6k expected
- Germany May retail sales +0.6% vs +0.5% m/m expected
- Germany May import prices +0.9% vs +1.6% m/m expected
- UK Q1 final GDP +0.8% vs +0.8% q/q second estimate
- UK June Nationwide house prices +0.3% vs +0.5% m/m expected
Markets:
- JPY leads, EUR lags on the day
- European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 1.5%
- US 10-year yields down 5.6 bps to 3.037%
- Gold down 0.7% to $1,805.33
- WTI crude down 0.9% to $108.84
- Bitcoin down 5.9% to $18,995
A glance at markets would suggest a typical risk-off kind of day but that hasn’t really translated to much significant action in FX, for the most part at least.
Equities slumped early on with US futures being pummeled lower as the focus rests on month-end and quarter-end trading. That dragged European stocks down as well, erasing a lot of the good work from last week.
Treasuries were bid throughout with 2-year yields dipping back below 3% and commodities were also sold, with gold and oil both looking rather heavy on the session. Elsewhere, even Bitcoin slumped back below $20,000 and is in a battle to try and thwart obscurity at the moment.
The yen was a notable gainer on the session but a push lower in USD/JPY to 136.00 was quickly bid back up to 136.20-30 levels, as it is now – still down 0.2% on the day. The euro lagged as it continues to struggle for love from investors with EUR/USD falling back below 1.0400 for the first time in two weeks in a drop from 1.0450 to 1.0385.
GBP/USD was mostly little changed but is seen now down 0.2% to near 1.2100 as the dollar keeps a modest advance after a slow start. USD/CHF also recovered to push to 0.9600 only to drop back to 0.9570-80 levels now.
Against commodity currencies, the dollar is mostly little changed though USD/CAD is back up above 1.2900 with the help of some selling in oil. WTI crude is down 0.9% to $108.84 currently.
Well, it’s all about getting over the month-end and quarter-end hump today. But with tomorrow being a Friday and a long weekend in the US beckoning (Monday is 4th of July), it may be tough to read into much of the moves before next week.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.