• If supply continues to fall short and inflation stays high, we will need to do more, if not we can do less
• Likely to be some slowing in economy but not a recession
• We have the tools to bring down inflation, it’s our number one priority
• How much additional tightening depends on factors beyond the Fed’s control

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Today’s gain has pushed the index into the mid-June gap.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Both are lower compared to last Friday’s close and that’s the second week in a row of declines but it follows a streak of seven consecutive weekly gains.

Overall, crude is right in the middle of the range since the outbreak of the Ukraine war and the bulls should be encouraged by that given the recession fears, the OPEC+ increase and the SPR release.

As for OPEC+, they will meet again on Thursday but a report this week citing five sources indicated the status quo. A bigger question is what happens beyond August when the scheduled increases run out. Nigeria has been underproducing but said it hopes to have its oil online quickly. Libya’s production is inconsistent. Hopes for an end to the Iran nuclear deal are nearly non-existent.

For me, the dominant feature on the chart is the series of higher lows that’s intact so long as crude stays above $95. The buying interest today shows ongoing tightness in the physical market but a sharp economic slowdown could reverse that in the months ahead.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.