• Fed rose by 75 basis points,
• ECB launched with a higher than expected 50 basis point hike.
• RBA raised by 50 BPS
• RBNZ raised by 50 BPS
• BOC raised by a surprise 100 BPS

The BOE did not have a rate meeting in July (they will meet on August 4). The BOJ kept policy unchanged when they met and are expected to stay that way going forward.

So how did the USD end the month?

The US dollar index rose modestly from the start to finish. Overall, the USD closed higher by about 1.16%. Of course that index is weighted more toward the EURUSD which saw the USD move up by about 2.58%. Other currencies saw the USD move lower. In fact, the dollar fell vs the JPY, CHF, CAD, AUD, and NZD. It was near unchanged vs the GBP.

What were the changes for the month for the other majors vs the greenback?

• EURUSD. -2.58%. As mentioned the EURUSD fell by -2.58% despite the higher than expected hike by the ECB.Of course they continue to feel the pinch from the Ukraine war and the shenanigans from Russia regarding the Nord stream 1 pipeline which has investor wary of the growth prospects although the GDP for the 2nd Q came in better than expected today.
• GBPUSD. Unchanged. The GBPUSD closed last month at 1.2178. The current price is at 1.2171, nearly unchanged on the month. During the month, PM Johnson resigned as PM. A new leader is between Rishi Sukan and Liz Truss with Truss the favorite
• USDJPY. -1.71% Despite the BOJ staying unchanged, and the USDJPY moving to a new high going back to 1998, the USDJPY is ending lower by -1.71% (dollar lower). The USDJPY closed at 135.75 last month and is trading at 133.32 today. The last two trading days has seen the pair move from positive to negative. The low for the month was reached today. Helping was lower US rates.
• USDCHF. -0.35%. The USDCHF closed last month at 0.9549. The currency pair is closing below that level at 0.9512 or down -0.35% USD lower). However in between June 30 and July 29, the price moved to a high price of 0.9886 reached around mid month on July 14, and has spent the next 11 trading days retracing those gains. Today’s move to the downside took the price to a new low for the month at 0.9501 and pushed the pair into negative territory.
• USDCAD. -0.61%. The USD moved lower vs the CAD by -0.61%. The pair closed on June 30 at 1.2874. The pair is currently trading at 1.2796. Today, the pair traded to the low for the month at 1.2788. In between the pair moved to a high of 1.3223 which was the highest level since November 2020 (reached on July 15) before rotating back to the downside and erasing all those gains and more.
• AUDUSD. -1.25%. The USD is ending the month lower vs the AUD by -1.25%. The AUDUSD closed on June 30 at 0.69046 and is trading currently at 0.6994. Lower rates and risk-on sentiment helped to push the pair higher (lower US dollar) over the last half of the trading month.
• NZDUSD: -0.79%. The USD fell by -0.79% vs the NZD this month. The pair closed at 0.6245 on June 30 and is currently trading at 0.6294. Like many of the other pairs, the USD moved higher first bottoming the NZDUSD at 0.6060 on July 14 before rallying into the month and. Today’s high price at 0.6329 was the high price for the month before settling back down at 0.6294. Like the AUDUSD, risk on sentiment/lower US rates helped the pair rally into month end (lower USD).

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Dow industrial average rose 315.50 points or 0.97% at 32845.14
• S&P index rose 57.86 points or 1.42% at 4130.28
• NASDAQ index rose 228.10 points or 1.8% at 12390.70. That’s a largest increase cents April 2020
• Russell 2000 rose 12.20 points or 0.65% at 1885.23

For the trading month the average had their best month of the year:

• Dow industrial average rose 6.73%
• S&P index rose 9.12% which was the best month since November 2020
• NASDAQ index rose 12.35%.

For the trading week.

• Dow industrial average rose by 2.97%
• S&P index rose 4.26%
• NASDAQ index rose 4.7%

Some pretty good numbers for the day, week and month for the major indices. Moreover, the gains were made despite a 75 basis point hike and the earnings calendar.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD is trading near the last Friday closing level of 1.1213. The current price is moving to an afternoon high at 1.0219

In the US session the price moved down to a low at 1.01448. That was within a lower swing area between 1.0140 to 1.1054 (see red numbered circles).

The rebound back above the 100 and 200 hour MAs, saw a retest of the 100 hour MA before moving back higher in the NY afternoon session.

On the topside, this week, the high was on Monday at 1.0257. That was short of the 50% midpoint of the move down from the June 27 high. Not being able to get above that key target, sent the pair lower and below the 50% of the move up from the July 14 low at 1.01129 on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, after moving back above the 50% also on Wednesday (FOMC 75 BP hike day), the low yesterday found support buyers at the 50% again.

The buyers and sellers continue to battle. The range over the last 9 trading days is from 1.0095 to 1.02074 with lots of ups and downs.

The battle will continue to rage next week. Traders will continue to lean against the highs and lows, perhaps the moving averages, and other swing levels where risk can be defined and limited.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.