<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The bond market was the first to turn after the US CPI data, with yields reversing higher. One can argue stocks already did see a bit of a turn with a more or less flat finish in Wall Street yesterday following modest gains at the start of the session. For today, the dollar is now seen holding slightly firmer but equities are holding a little higher as we approach North American trading.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I would say this is broader markets looking to reassess themselves, taking a cue from Treasuries. With yields turning higher and 10-year yields continuing to knock at the 100-day moving average, perhaps the knee-jerk reaction to the slightly softer US consumer inflation numbers was a bit much.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This looks like a market that is looking for further confirmation from either the data or Fed speakers in reassessing the outlook on inflation, the economy and how central banks are going to respond to the balance between all of that.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I shared some thoughts on that yesterday in this passage:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“Coming back to the report, there’s just too much to decipher based on one set of numbers. I would take it that there is some evidence that inflation pressures are easing and yes, it may be caused by declining energy prices for the most part. The core reading continues to be rather sticky, even if there are signs that the surge in price pressures is cooling off slightly. The fact that it sits near 6% means the Fed is still a long way from delivering on its mandate. </p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In short, it is too soon to be calling this a turning point or a confirmation that a Fed pivot will be coming soon. If anything else, this is just first base. We’re going to have to wait until the bases are loaded by getting confirmation from the data in the months ahead before angling for that home run. </p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But take nothing away from the numbers and markets‘ constant need to simplify their focus and approach. It is what it is. And this is a start at least.“</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>For now, equities are holding slightly higher with S&P 500 futures up 13 points, or 0.3%, on the day. European indices were tepid early on and are also mildly higher, though gains are rather muted at the moment I would say. As much as risk trades will pounce on any opportunity to be greedy, a lack of coherence from other asset classes is something that could bring back some anxiety before the weekend.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar is firmer on the day as it works to claw back losses suffered from the aftermath of the US CPI data on Wednesday. If the trade then was to punish those betting against a Fed pivot, <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/a-bit-of-a-rethink-before-the-weekend-20220812/“ target=“_blank“>the bond market clearly had other ideas</a> and we are now seeing things run back in FX as well.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>GBP/USD is the worst performer, down 0.7% to 1.2130 after having scaled as high as 1.2215 earlier in the day right upon the UK Q2 GDP data release. The figures were better than expected but it still pointed to a contraction in the UK economy, well before the long recession forecast by the BOE later in the year through to next year.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>From a technical perspective, the drop also comes amid a rejection against the trendline resistance (white line) above 1.2200.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, EUR/USD is down 0.3% to 1.0290 and keeping just below a large set of expiries (around €2.8 billion) at 1.0300-10 today. USD/JPY is also keeping higher by 0.4% to 133.50 but the range play remains between its 100-day moving average (red line) at 131.32 and the 135.00 mark for the time being.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Looking at commodity currencies, the aussie was higher earlier but has seen gains dissipate in a drop from 0.7125 to 0.7098 currently but continues to dance around its 100 and 200-day moving averages as outlined earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/audusd-higher-but-another-key-resistance-level-lurks-nearby-20220812/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior +0.8%; revised to +2.1%</li><li>Industrial production +2.4% vs +0.8% y/y expected</li><li>Prior +1.6%</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The material revision higher in May is something to note but the June reading is also solid, reflecting another monthly increase in industrial output. Looking at the details, production of capital goods rose by 2.6% and energy by 0.6%, while production of intermediate goods fell by 0.1%, durable consumer goods by 0.6% and non-durable consumer goods by 3.2%.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That said, this pertains to Q2 data and from the PMI readings, we already saw indications of a significant decline in factory activity in July so that is the latest look at the euro area economy.</p><p>/<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/e/eur/“ target=“_blank“ id=“b0427fd7-674c-4ad1-b689-22d1f8b087b0_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>EUR</a></p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>Brent Donnelly’s am/FX is a clear and concise daily look at one or two important topics related to global markets. Brent talks macro, narrative economics, trading strategy, tactics, positioning, technicals, and market psychology as he covers whatever markets are in play. Topics covered include FX, crypto, stocks, fixed income, <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/c/commodities/“ target=“_blank“ id=“da4553bf-21d1-405c-bc80-d431ff06ffd0_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>commodities</a>, and macroeconomics.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Brent’s huge network of hedge fund, real money, central bank, and trading contacts give him unique insight into what is driving markets today and what will move markets tomorrow.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Each day, am/FX helps you surf the current narrative and puts new themes on your radar before they hit the mainstream. Brent offers actionable analysis, clear directional views, and real trade ideas with specific stop loss and take profit parameters.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Each am/FX is unique. Sometimes it’s a punchy, one-page comment on a timely topic. Sometimes it’s a deep dive explainer on a timeless theme.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Click on these four samples to see how am/FX will keep you on top of current global macro themes, and make you a better trader:</p><p class=“MsoNormal“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.spectramarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/AMFX-Expansionary-Contraction-1AUG22.pdf“ target=“_blank“>Economic and geopolitical commentary</a></p><p class=“MsoNormal“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.spectramarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/AMFX-The-EUR-is-broken-10JUN22.pdf“ target=“_blank“>Real-time currency trades and ideas</a></p><p class=“MsoNormal“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.spectramarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/AMFX-How-to-succeed-as-a-sell-side-trader-24JUN22-1.pdf“ target=“_blank“>Advice on becoming a better trader</a></p><p class=“MsoNormal“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.spectramarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AMFX-Miami-Trip-Notes-27MAY22.pdf“ target=“_blank“>Inside look at what others on Wall Street are thinking</a></p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Brent Donnelly is President of Spectra Markets. He has been trading currencies since 1995 and writing about macro since 2004. Brent is the author of “Alpha Trader” (2021) and “The Art of Currency Trading” (Wiley, 2019). He writes a widely-read and highly-respected global macro and FX daily called am/FX. Over the course of his career, he has been a market maker, trader, and senior manager at some of the top banks in foreign exchange.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Brent has extensive experience trading currencies, FX options, stock index futures, NASDAQ stocks, and commodities. He is a respected macro thinker with the unique perspective of a senior risk taker. He has been quoted by or featured in the Economist, Real Vision, Epsilon Theory, the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Bloomberg, and CNBC.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Before joining Spectra, Brent was a senior FX trader at HSBC, head of G10 Spot Trading at Citi New York and a Managing Director at Nomura New York. He was also a portfolio manager at a major hedge fund in Connecticut for three years. He created and wrote a cartoon called ‘‘Daft Planet,’’ which aired on TV in Canada, and he dreams of one day winning the Man Booker Prize.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Here’s what other industry veterans have to say:</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>“Brent is a smart, balanced, and hyper-pragmatic trader. I have known and worked with him for years, and his constant search for new paradigms is what sets him apart.” – Jens Nordvig, World-Renowned Currency Strategist and Found of Exante Data</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>“A must-read for anyone who wants to truly understand global macro trading and currency markets.” – John Mauldin, New York Times Bestselling Author and Chairman of Mauldin Economics</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>“For years, professional investors have profited from Brent Donnelly’s daily insights on currency markets. Brent is my go-to source for color on the FX world, and his lessons have become and integral part of my investment process.” – Ben Hunt, Chief Investment Strategist, Salient Partners and Author of Epsilon Theory</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The price of am/FX is about to go up from $490/year</p><p class=“MsoNormal“> to $590/year but you can get your first year for just $390 by using the coupon code „FOREXLIVE“ to get $100 off the current lower price.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.spectramarkets.com/subscribe/“ target=“_blank“>Subscribe Here</a></p><p class=“MsoNormal“>If you have any questions about the am/FX examples or about anything else, do not hesitate to reach out to Brent directly at <a target=“_blank“ href=“mailto:bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com“>bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com</a>.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Real-world market intelligence</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>For every trader and investor</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Spectra Markets: Look Forward</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The pair is staying in the hunt for a third straight day of gains after the surge to fresh two-month highs upon the US CPI data release on Wednesday. The better risk mood is certainly helping and <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/equities-nudge-higher-as-risk-appetite-picks-up-20220812/“ target=“_blank“>the early ground covered so far today</a> is also bolstering sentiment with the pair holding near session highs around 0.7120-25.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Of note, buyers managed to breach the 100-day moving average (red line) yesterday and that opens up some room to roam to the topside but there is another key resistance level that is lurking nearby. The 200-day moving average (blue line) stands at 0.7149 and that may help to limit a further advance in the sessions ahead.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar is trading more mixed right now with gains seen against the likes of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurusd-lacks-poise-on-break-higher-this-week-20220812/“ target=“_blank“>euro</a> and <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/gbpusd-fails-to-clinch-upside-break-on-the-week-20220812/“ target=“_blank“>pound</a> and if risk appetite gets sapped as it did again late yesterday, I doubt the aussie can hang on to gains before we get to the weekend.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In any case, we are now trading in between the two key levels highlighted and the next trading bias for the pair is rather straightforward. Break above the 200-day moving average and buyers will open up the path towards retesting the May and June highs around 0.7266-82 while a break back below the 100-day moving average will put sellers back in control with the potential to fall back towards 0.7000 as the key target.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.