<p>The major US stock indices are closing lower for the 4th consecutive day. For the week, the majors major indices are also down sharply.</p><p>Recall from this time last week, Adam warned that this week is the worst week on the calendar seasonally for equities, over the past 50 years.It lived up to that distinction this year as well. </p><p>For the trading day:</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average fell -186.29 points or -1.62% to 29590.42. The prior low close for 2022 came in at 29888.72</li><li>S&P index fell -64.78 points or -1.72% at 3693.22. The low close for the year came in on June 13 at 3674.85. The low price today did dipped below that level but bounced into the close</li><li>NASDAQ index fell -198.87 points or -1.80% at 10867.94. The June 13 low close for the year came in at 10798.35. The low price today reached 10732.72 below that level.</li><li>Russell 2000 fell -42.72 points or -2.48% at 1679.58. The June 13 low close was at 1665.69. The low price today intraday reached 1658.65 below that level</li></ul><p>For the trading week,</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average fell -4.0%. Last week it fell -4.13%</li><li>S&P index fell -4.65%. Last week it fell -4.77%</li><li>NASDAQ index fell -5.07%. Last week it fell -5.48% him</li><li>Russell 2000 fell -6.6%. Last week the index it fell -4.5%.</li></ul><p>Technically, the</p><ul><li>NASDAQ index closed below its 200 week moving average at 11094.95. Back at the June lows, the price moved below the 200 week moving average as well, but closed above the moving average the following week and stayed above that moving average.</li><li>Dow industrial average also closed below its 200 week moving average at 29752.11. The last time the price close below its 200 week moving average was back on it May 11: 2020</li><li>S&P index remains above its 200 week moving average at 3585.22.</li></ul><p>For the week, the technicals are not looking good for 2 of the 3 major indices. It is just one week and we have seen these false breaks before (see the weekly chart below) him. However, until the price can get back above and stay above, the sellers have control. </p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/sp-global-us-services-pmi-492-vs-450-expected-20220923/“>S&P Global US services PMI 49.2 vs 45.0 expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-july-retail-sales-25-vs-20-expected-20220923/“>Canada July retail sales -2.5% vs -2.0% expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/snbs-jordan-further-rates-cannot-be-ruled-out-ready-to-be-active-in-fx-20220923/“>SNB’s Jordan: Further rates cannot be ruled out. Ready to be active in FX</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/powell-we-continue-to-deal-with-a-unique-economic-disruption-20220923/“>Powell: We continue to deal with a unique economic disruption</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-chencellor-kwarteng-i-think-its-a-very-good-day-for-the-uk-20220923/“>UK Chencellor Kwarteng: I think it’s a very good day for the UK</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/a-hurricane-is-likely-to-hit-florida-next-week-20220923/“>A hurricane is likely to hit Florida next week</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/baker-hughes-oil-rigs-up-3-in-the-current-week-20220923/“>Baker Hughes oil rigs up 3 in the current week</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/italy-heads-to-the-polls-on-sunday-20220923/“>Italy heads to the polls on Sunday</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>WTI crude oil down $4.64 to 78.84</li><li>US 10-year yields down 2.7 bps to 3.68%</li><li>UK 10-year yields up 33 bps to 3.83%</li><li>Gold down $27 to $1643</li><li>S&P 500 down 1.7%</li><li>USD leads, GBP lags (badly)</li></ul><p>Today’s price action was probably just an extension of the FOMC trade and the growing belief that Powell is going to over-tighten the economy into a recession. But the trigger was in the bond market, specifically UK bonds. UK 5 year notes had their worst day in recorded history, down 50 basis points(!). That came after a round of spending and tax cuts in Kwateng’s budget.</p><p>Coupled with that the pound cratered. It took out 1.10 for the first time since 1985 and then promptly took out 1.09 on a cascade of selling into the London fix. You’d expect a bounce after that but the USD bid was relentless and it fell as low as 1.0840. The 1985 low is now just 300 pips away and there don’t appear to be many buyers.</p><p>Even though EUR/USD fell 150 pips to a new low the euro still managed to put a beating on GBP. The problem for eurozone politicians is that the UK budget demonstrated what will happen to them if they spend too much or energy subsidies or do to much to stimulate growth. That puts them in a horrible predicament. Meanwhile, another 1.4% decline in the euro adds to imported inflation.</p><p>At one point early in the day a strong bid for Treasuries came in. That briefly looked like it could turn the mood and 10-year yields finished lower at 3.68% after touching 3.83%. The front end was also volatile with 2s in a range of 4.11-4.27%. At some point, you’d think there would be enough of a bid for safety to weigh but the bond bulls aren’t exactly stampeding at what’s been a brutal time for risk assets.</p><p>USD/JPY remains a major preoccupation as the game of chicken with the MOF gets underway. The pair added 94 pips today to 143.28. Everyone is eyeing the 145.00 and broad dollar strength makes it more likely that we’ll get back there.</p><p>The commodity currencies suffered as well but — oddly — the declines in AUD and NZD were about double CAD. The loonie has been skidding hard so maybe it’s a catch-up trade but it’s still unusual to see on a day when oil was down 5.4%. Canadian retail sales were also weak today and I think the evidence is mouting for the BOC to pivot.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>Monday</p><ul><li>10 am ET Collins </li><li>12 am ET Bostic</li><li>1230 ET Logan</li><li>4 pm ET Mester</li></ul><p>Tuesday</p><ul><li>6:15 am ET Evans</li><li>9:55 am ET Bullard</li><li>8:35 pm ET Daly</li></ul><p>Wednesday</p><ul><li>8:35 am ET Bostic</li><li>10:10 am ET Bullard</li><li>2 pm ET Evans</li></ul><p>Thursday</p><ul><li>1 pm ET Mester</li><li>4:45 ET Daly</li></ul><p>Friday</p><ul><li>9 am ET Brainard</li><li>1230 ET Barkin</li><li>4:15 pm ET Williams</li></ul><p>I’ll be shocked if we only hear from Bullard twice.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>The consensus on the Fed — which is something I said yesterday — is that „these morons are going to over-hike us into a recession“.</p><p>I get the sense that the FOMC is so desperate for a ‚win‘ on anything that they’re willing to wreck the economy just so they can live out their Volcker fantasies. </p><p>In any case, here’s a better Fed rant than anything I could write and given what’s happening in markets, this won’t be the last one.</p><blockquote class=“twitter-tweet“ data-partner=“tweetdeck“><p dir=“ltr“ lang=“en“>ICYMI: Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel fired up on <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/HalftimeReport?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw“>@HalftimeReport</a> over the Fed. We’re going to break it all down on Overtime. Tune in at 4PM ET! <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://t.co/ONe0cqDwcy“>pic.twitter.com/ONe0cqDwcy</a></p>— CNBCOvertime (@CNBCOvertime) <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/CNBCOvertime/status/1573387150338433025?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw“>September 23, 2022</a></blockquote>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>The price of Bitcoin has seen two quick $14K declines recently with one in May and one in June. The declines were quick. The market price consolidated after the moves. </p><p>Since June 19, the price has been consolidating between $17592 and $25400. More recently, the price moved up to test a downward sloping trend line. The move did move above the falling 100 day MA (blue line on the chart above) but could not sustain momentum (the trend line instead stalled the rally). Buyers had their shot above the 100 day MA. They failed thanks to the trend line. </p><p>The digital currency has moved back down toward the June low at $17592. The low this week got within $1000 of the low. </p><p>My question is „Are we in for another run to the downside?“</p><p>Given the consolidation, since June 19, the market may be ready. As mentioned as well, the buyers had their shot to take the price above the 100 day MA, but found willing sellers at the trend line. Bearish. </p><p>If the price is to go lower, all bets would be off if the price were to go above the 100 day MA at $21268. That is near the trend line too. With the price at $18664, the risk is somewhat high up to $21268.</p><p> Is there a closer risk level?</p><p>Drilling to the hourly chart below, the highs over the last few days moved above the 200 hour MA on September 21 but failed. Again buyers had their shot and missed. The subsequent highs on September 22 and today found sellers closer to that MA line. </p><p>As a result that MA would be a closer risk level at $19379. Stay below is more bearish. Move above is more bullish (stop). That is the risk. </p><p> A lower stop in the short term might be $19084 which is where the 100 hour MA is found. Today, the price moved below that MA and stayed below. That too is bearish and might be a closer risk defining level for traders looking for a quick opportunity.</p><p>Admittedly, those stopped can be triggered on a sneeze in bitcoin, but the idea is „it is time“ The price action is talking to me. </p><p>Hey…. bitcoin is not the easiest to trade, but the technicals are technicals whether looking at Bitcoin, Microsoft, oil or GBPUSD. The chart looks bearish to me with defined risk against either the hourly or daily MA/trend line. The reward on a break to a new 2022 low could see the pair move toward the $11,000 area if the pair gets another head of steam behind it. </p><p>Time will tell but that is what the charts are saying to me. </p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.