TipRanks analyst ranking service pinpoints Wall Street’s best-performing stocks, McDonald’s and Workday.
Archiv für den Monat: September 2022
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Forecast for Week Ahead: Path Higher Difficult but Possible
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 may find some support in the fact that the US economy remains resilient and that inflationary pressures are beginning to ease more quickly than initially expected.
USD/CAD Rate Outlook Hinges on BoC Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision may keep USD/CAD afloat as the central bank is expected to adjust its approach in combating inflation.
Euro ( EUR) Forecast – The ECB Needs to Ramp Up Interest Rates and Fast
The European Central Bank needs to hike interest rates by 75 basis points at next week’s meeting and confirm that it will continue to tighten monetary policy to throttle back runaway inflation.
Gold Prices Set to Move Higher in the Week Ahead After NFP Data Cools FOMC Bets
Gold prices fell last week but managed to trim losses on Friday after the US jobs report cooled FOMC rate hike bets, pushing Treasury yields lower. A light economic docket may extend XAU’s Friday g…
USD Weekly Forecast: Solid Jobs Report Supportive of U.S. Dollar and 75bps Rate Hike
USD enters the week on a firm footing as the US Dollar Index (DXY) anticipates the ECB interest decision on Thursday.
Russell analysis and recap of trade ideas
<p>Russell 2000 technical analysis with a trade idea, highlighting how to scale in a trade by casting a net of orders. It is done in a special way, so there is value in watching the entire video, which also includes a review of the recent trade ideas provided last week on ForexLive.com</p><p>The above video shows trade ideas that were provide last week:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-technical-analysis-in-10-seconds-including-a-trade-idea-20220901/“>S&P 500 technical analysis and trade idea</a> </li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-in-10-seconds-20220831/“>Gold technical analysis and trade idea </a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/ehereum-technical-analysis-ethusd-at-1500-whats-next-20220828/“>Ethereum technical analysis and trade idea</a> </li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/natural-gas-futures-natgas-technical-analysis-and-trade-idea-short-20220829/“>Natural gas technical analysis and trade idea</a> </li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/russell-2000-technical-analysis-in-10-seconds-20220831/“>Russell 2000 and trade idea</a> </li></ul><p>This week’s trade idea for the Russell, detailed in the above technical analysis video (must watch for those considering to trade it), include the following 6 buy orders, at the following prices:</p><p>Trade the Russell 2000 at your own risk. Visit ForexLive.com for additional ideas, opinions and perspectives within our technical analysis section.</p>
This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.
AUD traders – RBA monetary policy meeting coming up Tuesday 6 September 2022 – preview
<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia statement is due at 0430 GMT on 6 September 2022.</p><p>Earlier previews are here:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rba-rate-hike-coming-up-next-week-preview-of-another-50bp-hike-20220902/“ target=“_blank“>RBA rate hike coming up next week – preview of another 50bp hike</a></li></ul><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rba-monetary-policy-meeting-tuesday-september-6-preview-tldr-50bp-hike-coming-up-20220901/“ target=“_blank“ data-article-link=“true“ class=“article-link“>RBA monetary policy meeting Tuesday September 6 – preview (TL;DR +50bp hike coming up)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/poll-of-analysts-rba-to-hike-its-cash-rate-by-50bp-on-tuesday-6-september-20220902/“ target=“_blank“ data-article-link=“true“ class=“article-link vertical-align-baseline“>Poll of analysts – RBA to hike its cash rate by 50bp on Tuesday 6 September</a></li></ul><p>Scanning through some of the comments on what Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA – one of Australia’s ‚big four‘ banks) is expecting ahead. In summary: </p><ul><li>says the RBA is broadly expected to continue to raise the cash rate</li><li>CBA’s base forecast is for a further 75 basis points of rate hikes over coming months</li><li>cash rate to peak at 2.6%, late in 2022</li><li>there is a risk of a higher terminal rate, around 2.85%</li></ul><p>CBA then has the earliest projection (of the big 4 Australian banks) of when the RBA will stop hiking and actually cut the cash rate.</p><ul><li>CBA points out its 2.6% peak forecast is the most conservative among analysts</li><li>expects the RBA to cut the cash rate by 50 basis points in H2 of 2023</li></ul><p>—</p><p>Current RBA cash rate target:</p>
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
Do you have the FEAR OF SUCCESS when you trade?
<p>Most traders know about the FEAR OF FAILURE, but do you know about the FEAR OF SUCCESS?
In this video, Greg Michalowski describes the FEAR OF SUCCESS that stifles traders and causes them to do things they never planned on doing.
What is it? How can you conquer it?</p><p>PS Here is the link on <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/how-to-control-the-fear-of-failure-in-your-trading-20220831/“ target=“_blank“>How to control the fear of failure in your trading</a>….</p>
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The G7 is taking a huge risk with the Russia oil price cap
<p>On Friday, G7 finance ministers agreed to the implement a December price cap on Russian oil and there’s growing chance it leads to a natural gas-style price explosion in oil.</p><p>The details of how it will work haven’t been sorted out but the philosophy was <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/yellens-comments-on-the-russian-oil-cap-are-insane-20220719/“ target=“_blank“>made clear</a> by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in July.</p><p>“Russia’s going to face an insurance and financial services ban at the
end of the year that is going to end up shutting in between 3 and 5
million barrels, we estimate,“ she said. „So why should they retaliate
for an initiative that enables their oil to continue to flow through to
world markets at a price that is still profitable?“</p><p>The idea was mocked on Friday by Bloomberg’s Javier Blas:</p><p>My friends and I have agreed to impose a price cap on our local pub’s beer. Mind we actually do not plan to drink any beer there. The pub’s owner says he won’t sell beer to anyone observing the cap, so other patrons, who drink a lot there, say they aren’t joining the cap. Success</p><p>But Ben Harris, Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the Treasury took on that thinking directly. He highlighted –as others have — is that G7 countries control shipping insurance and trading services.</p><p>“The G7 dominates necessary financial & other services for global oil trade. For example, the EU and UK provide 90% of global shipping insurance. The G7 countries‘ collective control of those services gives us the ability to restrict trade above a certain price. It’s more like a regulator laying out permissible terms of trade than an individual customer trying to reduce a bar tab.“</p><p>So it’s not really a price cap. It’s a blockade or the essential services for moving crude unless it’s sold at a discount, perhaps 30%. </p><p>And Russia is locked into those services. Unlike a bartender who can just slide the beer to another customer, Russia faces huge infrastructure & logistical costs to divert oil flowing through Europe to other outlets. The idea that oil will just be held back simply isn’t credible.</p><p>The bolded idea to me is insane, especially how it’s dismissed so easily, just as Yellen did.</p><p>Russia said in the clearest terms on Friday that it won’t see oil to any country that participates in the scheme. Somehow the US (and G7) believe that idea „simply isn’t credible“.</p><p>That statement came mere hours after Russia voluntarily <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/transport-of-gas-to-nord-stream-has-been-completely-stopped-due-to-a-leakage-20220902/“ target=“_blank“>shut off </a>its own natural gas exports via Nord Stream 1. Those exports aren’t under any kind of sanction and have been receiving stratospheric prices. Yet we’re betting they won’t do the same with oil?</p><p>What would be the consequences? Russia produces 10-11 million barrels per day and exports 4-5 million barrels per day, which is roughly 3-5% of global usage. That doesn’t sound like much, right? Wrong. Oil demand is extremely inelastic. Even long-term imbalances of a few hundred thousand barrels per day have led to price spikes in oil. Removing 3-5 million barrels per day for any length of time will lead to a scramble for oil, easily pushing prices above $200/barrel.</p><p>There are only three ways this turns out ok:</p><ol><li>Yellen is right and Russia eats a big discount on its oil because it needs the revenue</li><li>Russia and its customers secure tankers and manage their own trade</li><li>Russia finds some other way to get its oil out</li></ol><p>In all those scenarios, that simply reinforces the status quo. Goldman Sachs currently has a $125/barrel oil price forecast for 2023 and assumes a 600k bpd decline in Russian oil output due to sanctions and the price cap. If somehow Russia continues to supply at current levels, they say that would imply $15 of downside. They don’t quantify the potential upside but say „the potential loss of Russian exports in retaliation creates substantial upside risk to our bullish forecast.“</p><p>The west would have little buffer if Russia does shut in production. Saudi Arabia has a small amount of surge capacity that could add 1-2 mbpd for a month or two. The US SPR has already been tapped but will still have 400 million barrels at the end of October. That could add 1 mbpd for more than a year. None of that is enough to make up for the shortfall.</p><p>So the question is: How much faith do you have in G7 leaders?</p>
end of the year that is going to end up shutting in between 3 and 5
million barrels, we estimate,“ she said. „So why should they retaliate
for an initiative that enables their oil to continue to flow through to
world markets at a price that is still profitable?“</p><p>The idea was mocked on Friday by Bloomberg’s Javier Blas:</p><p>My friends and I have agreed to impose a price cap on our local pub’s beer. Mind we actually do not plan to drink any beer there. The pub’s owner says he won’t sell beer to anyone observing the cap, so other patrons, who drink a lot there, say they aren’t joining the cap. Success</p><p>But Ben Harris, Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the Treasury took on that thinking directly. He highlighted –as others have — is that G7 countries control shipping insurance and trading services.</p><p>“The G7 dominates necessary financial & other services for global oil trade. For example, the EU and UK provide 90% of global shipping insurance. The G7 countries‘ collective control of those services gives us the ability to restrict trade above a certain price. It’s more like a regulator laying out permissible terms of trade than an individual customer trying to reduce a bar tab.“</p><p>So it’s not really a price cap. It’s a blockade or the essential services for moving crude unless it’s sold at a discount, perhaps 30%. </p><p>And Russia is locked into those services. Unlike a bartender who can just slide the beer to another customer, Russia faces huge infrastructure & logistical costs to divert oil flowing through Europe to other outlets. The idea that oil will just be held back simply isn’t credible.</p><p>The bolded idea to me is insane, especially how it’s dismissed so easily, just as Yellen did.</p><p>Russia said in the clearest terms on Friday that it won’t see oil to any country that participates in the scheme. Somehow the US (and G7) believe that idea „simply isn’t credible“.</p><p>That statement came mere hours after Russia voluntarily <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/transport-of-gas-to-nord-stream-has-been-completely-stopped-due-to-a-leakage-20220902/“ target=“_blank“>shut off </a>its own natural gas exports via Nord Stream 1. Those exports aren’t under any kind of sanction and have been receiving stratospheric prices. Yet we’re betting they won’t do the same with oil?</p><p>What would be the consequences? Russia produces 10-11 million barrels per day and exports 4-5 million barrels per day, which is roughly 3-5% of global usage. That doesn’t sound like much, right? Wrong. Oil demand is extremely inelastic. Even long-term imbalances of a few hundred thousand barrels per day have led to price spikes in oil. Removing 3-5 million barrels per day for any length of time will lead to a scramble for oil, easily pushing prices above $200/barrel.</p><p>There are only three ways this turns out ok:</p><ol><li>Yellen is right and Russia eats a big discount on its oil because it needs the revenue</li><li>Russia and its customers secure tankers and manage their own trade</li><li>Russia finds some other way to get its oil out</li></ol><p>In all those scenarios, that simply reinforces the status quo. Goldman Sachs currently has a $125/barrel oil price forecast for 2023 and assumes a 600k bpd decline in Russian oil output due to sanctions and the price cap. If somehow Russia continues to supply at current levels, they say that would imply $15 of downside. They don’t quantify the potential upside but say „the potential loss of Russian exports in retaliation creates substantial upside risk to our bullish forecast.“</p><p>The west would have little buffer if Russia does shut in production. Saudi Arabia has a small amount of surge capacity that could add 1-2 mbpd for a month or two. The US SPR has already been tapped but will still have 400 million barrels at the end of October. That could add 1 mbpd for more than a year. None of that is enough to make up for the shortfall.</p><p>So the question is: How much faith do you have in G7 leaders?</p>
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.