GBP/USD falls to fresh lows on the day, down over 1% now 0 (0)

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The pair is now running into a fresh test of the 200-hour moving average (blue line) at 1.1191 as we see a quick tumble in cable from 1.1250 to 1.1190 – down 1.2% on the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The drop coincides with another bout of dollar strength with EUR/USD pulled to the lows as well, down 0.5% to 0.9720, but also as we start to see reports confirming that Kwarteng has been sacked as UK finance minister. UK 30-year gilt yields are down 18 bps to 4.36% but are off earlier lows of around 4.24%.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There is talk in UK political circles that Kwarteng’s sacking is not going to go down well with Tory lawmakers and they might just call for Truss‘ head. The political uncertainty and instability isn’t helping with the mood, as the volatility swings continue for the pound.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>For now though, the technicals will at least do some work. If we break below 1.1200 and the 200-hour moving average, then the near-term bias becomes more bearish and we open up a lower range for <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/g/gbp-usd/“ target=“_blank“ id=“40825c22-4786-411e-8820-6b43082274be_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>GBP/USD</a> towards the 100-hour moving average (red line) at 1.1114 at least.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

Reports suggest Kwarteng has been sacked as UK finance minister 0 (0)

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There is no point in delaying the inevitable but I believe we will have to wait for Truss‘ speech later today to make it official. For now, BBC, Sky News, CNBC are all reporting on the matter in saying that Kwarteng has been ousted already.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

ECB’s Vasle: 75 bps rate hikes in October, December meetings may be appropriate 0 (0)

<ul><li>Appropriate to discuss QT once rates reach neutral level</li><li>The discussion and decision should happen in 2023</li><li>Rates need to enter restrictive territory</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Nothing out of the ordinary as 75 bps is the expected decision for October at least. The ECB looks likely to hike until Q1 2023 before pumping the brakes on tighter policy – at least that seems to be the case for now.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

Still no word on China’s unusual trade data omission today 0 (0)

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It is a bit of an odd one as the data is due for today alongside that of Q3. Typically, officials will also hold a briefing to speak about the numbers but there isn’t anything about that either. At the end of the day, it is China and there’s only so much one can speculate.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In any case, the data was estimated to show a further decline in the country’s export growth (+4.1% y/y estimate, +7.1% prior) with imports (+1.0% y/y estimate, +0.3% prior) set to remain rather tepid.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The timing might also be an interesting one as this release would be two days before the National Congress – which is to take place on Sunday. For some context, this is the most important meeting of the Chinese Communist Party’s five-year political cycle. The event will be one where Xi is on course for a historic third term as the country’s leader.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

UK bonds rally further ahead of imminent government policy U-turn 0 (0)

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s a busy day for UK markets as politics take center stage as UK prime minister, Liz Truss, is set to run back on her campaign promises and announce a corporation tax increase later today. The move is being cheered by domestic bonds as gilts are rallying hard for a second successive session.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The pound is also able to find small pockets of relief but is now still down 0.5% against the dollar at around 1.1270. The low earlier today hit 1.1230 amid a bout of dollar strength. You can check out the price action in this post <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/a-summary-of-the-pound-volatility-this-morning-20221014/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Just keep in mind that the BOE is also set to end its support for the gilts market later today, so the timing of the fiscal U-turn is a welcome one for UK assets in general.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The question now for UK political circles is whether or not Kwarteng’s sacrifice will be enough to take the heat of Truss? If not, expect further volatility to continue for the pound amid the political debacle in the coming weeks/months. This is all as emerging market as it can get. 🤪</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive