<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The holiday mood will continue after the Christmas break but that might not mean a pause in the action for stocks ahead of the new year. I’ve highlighted the technical predicament for the S&P 500 for a while now, ever since before we got to the Fed meeting earlier this month <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/it-may-all-rest-on-wall-streets-shoulders-when-all-is-said-and-done-20221214/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>And that story is continuing to play out for now, with the double-top pattern near 4,100 and key trendline resistance (white line) for the year providing a strong set of technical consideration for sellers to take charge. That resulted in a break back below the 100-day moving average (red line) before the selloff was only halted by the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the recent swing move higher, seen at 3,796.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That is a key level to watch over the coming days, despite the fact that we are likely to observe thinner market conditions. Below that will be the measured target of the double-top pattern, seen at roughly 3,760, and then the November low at 3,698.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There might not have been a Santa Claus rally this year for stocks but I reckon investors are probably happy enough to not have been dealt another severe blow on the charts before Christmas.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But as we approach the turn of the year, things could get ugly if we do see a break of the key levels highlighted above.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I reckon the fact that the dot plots revealed that 17 of 19 Fed policymakers are seeing the Fed funds rate exceeding 5% by the end of next year (with no rate cuts projected) says a lot about how unanimous the thinking is at the central bank right now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As such, even a rotation in FOMC voters for next year is very unlikely to shake things up – at least for the first half of the year, in all likelihood. But let’s still take a look at the who’s who in terms of voting members for this year and the change in the lineup for next year.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In 2022:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The rotating voters are Susan Collins (Boston), Loretta Mester (Cleveland), James Bullard (St. Louis), and Esther George (Kansas City). For next year:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The lineup of the rotating voters will consist of Patrick Harker (Philadelphia), Austan Goolsbee (Chicago), Lorie Logan (Dallas), and Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis).</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, the permanent voters will remain the same in the form of Powell, Brainard, Barr, Cook, Jefferson, Waller, Bowman, and Williams (New York).</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As much as I want to try and go off tangent to believe that the rotation will result in a meaningful shift in either a hawkish or dovish (one that most are perhaps saying), I don’t think we’ll see much in terms of dissent or stand out views from the Fed until the inflation outlook changes drastically.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In other words, don’t expect dissents to Powell’s leadership to come about too quickly and that will allow him to manage the Fed and market expectations much more easily for at least the first half of 2023.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>ICYMI,<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/a-barrage-of-asian-market-holidays-incoming-next-week-fx-guide-20221223/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“> I posted last week on the holidays in major FX centres in Asia this week</a>. The whole week is going to be more or less a holiday, but Monday and Tuesday will be officially closed in many centres:</p><p>Japan and China are officially open on Monday. BOJ Gov Kuroda is speaking:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-japan-governor-kuroda-to-speak-monday-morning-japan-time-sunday-evening-us-time-20221225/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“ data-article-link=“true“>Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda to speak Monday morning Japan time (Sunday evening US time)</a></li></ul><p>Once again, market liquidity will be very thin. If you are trading, take extra care.</p><p>I won’t be around today or tomorrow but will pop in from time to time. For Kuroda’s speech, for example (although afterwards rather than live coverage). Have a great break if you are taking one. </p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Most major forex centres are closed for a holiday Monday (26 December 2022).</p><p>I posted who is open and who is closed here:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/a-barrage-of-asian-market-holidays-incoming-next-week-fx-guide-20221223/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“ data-article-link=“true“>A barrage of Asian market holidays incoming next week – FX guide</a></li></ul><p>Japan is open Monday, 26 December 2022, and BOJ Gov. Kuroda is speaking:</p><ul><li>scheduled for 0350 GMT on 26 December 2022 (this is 2250pm NY time on 25 December)</li><li>Kuroda is addressing a meeting of Councillors of Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) in Tokyo. Keidanren is a significant organisation in Japan with close links to Japan’s ruling Liberal-Democratic Party. It provides advice to the government on economic issues. </li></ul><p>Last week the BOJ widened its tolerance band for JGB yields, sending a shockwave through global markets:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-asia-pacific-fx-news-wrap-boj-pivot-sends-the-yen-rocketing-higher-across-board-20221220/“ rel=“follow“ target=“_self“ class=“article-link vertical-align-baseline“>ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: BOJ pivot sends the yen rocketing higher across board</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-european-fx-news-wrap-yen-flying-high-after-boj-policy-tweak-20221220/“ rel=“follow“ target=“_self“ class=“article-link“>ForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen flying high after BOJ policy tweak</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-yen-hits-new-highs-as-the-boj-fallout-continues-20221220/“ rel=“follow“ target=“_self“ class=“article-link“>Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Yen hits new highs as the BOJ fallout continues</a></li></ul><p>USD/JPY plunged on the announcement and the swings continued:</p><p class=“western“ align=“left“>
(This
chart is from our charting app, which is free and <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/LiveCharts“>can
be found at this link</a>)</p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.