<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Interest rate futures are pricing in a roughly 96% chance for a 25 bps move for the next BOE policy meeting in March. I would say that is pretty much what one should expect especially after the February decision <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-raises-bank-rate-by-50-bps-to-400-as-expected-20230202/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>. The pound may be looking upbeat with cable rising above 1.2100 so far on the session but that owes a little to a slight near-term release as noted <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/sterling-jumps-after-upbeat-uk-pmi-data-20230221/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>. In the bigger picture, I would say the data today changes nothing about the BOE outlook – for the most part.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that after the break of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a>, the price is having a hard time
breaking lower as the strong <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at 0.6860 halted the selling
momentum. </p><p>The bearish bias remains though
as we have the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> pointing south. The USD is supported fundamentally as the market is
repricing a higher terminal rate from the Fed and no cuts for this year. This
repricing started with the very strong <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-nonfarm-payroll-517k-vs-185k-estimate-unemployment-rate-34-vs-35-estimate-20230203/“>NFP</a> report and hot economic reports
afterwards. The market is probably just waiting for some catalyst before
pushing lower. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the selling momentum waned as the price tried a breakout of the
support at 0.6860 as depicted by the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“>divergence</a> with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/“>MACD</a>. It’s possible that we will see
first a pullback to the downward trendline before another attempt from the
sellers to break the support. </p><p>The buyers will need first to
break the trendline to the upside to start targeting higher highs and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at the 0.70 handle, which will
be the key spot for both sides.</p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that there’s <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/“>confluence</a> with a 61.8% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level at the trendline. That may be a target for
the buyers and a good spot to lean on for the sellers as they will have a
defined risk and can fold fast if the price starts breaking the trendline to
the upside. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior -17</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>UK factory output and orders fell in February, with the latter dropping to its lowest since September 2020. The balance of new orders i.e. headline reading rose slightly but remains firmly in negative territory. CBI notes that:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“Conditions in manufacturing remain challenging, with output disappointing and order books having thinned out since late last year. However, if growth is going to return to the sector on a sustainable basis, then manufacturers need more than the boost some will receive from lower energy prices over the winter season.“</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.