<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>After the gains on Friday, oil is giving a decent amount back today with WTI crude down 1% to $78.95 at the moment. From a technical point of view, the $80 mark and 100-day moving average highlighted at the end of last week <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/oil-a-big-winner-on-the-day-as-russia-says-that-it-would-cut-production-in-march-20230210/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a> remain obstacles for any upside break.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Dow Jones (potential) trade opportunity: What is a busted technical pattern and why should you care</p><p>In the field of technical analysis, a chart pattern is said to have „busted“ when it does not follow through in the manner in which it was anticipated it would. For traders who were expecting on the pattern to play out as planned, this may be a very unpleasant experience, as it might lead to losses or chances that were missed.</p><p>Watch the Video of the Dow Jones futures technical analysis and the potentially (upcoming busted bear flag)</p><p>In this particular instance, the Dow Jones <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/f/futures/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“2037a59d-f6cf-44c1-a57d-162e04589957″ target=“_blank“>futures</a> (YM) on the four-hourly period have broken below the bear flag, so validating it for the first time. As of right now, we are retesting, but we need to keep an eye out for a fantastic bullish chance, in the event that it materializes, in which price enters and remains within the bear flag, as shown in the following video that provides a technical analysis of the Dow Jones. Early traders who want to bet on an early Long and still enjoy a BALANCE of a healthy probablity to win AND a high reward vs. risk (where the stop would be failry close to the entry and profit target much farther than the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/e/entry/“ class=“terms__secondary-term“ id=“c7fd129e-83ed-4a4d-b859-7982e1bb51e3″ target=“_blank“>entry</a>) can seek a CLOSE of a 4 hour candle INSIDE the bear flag. Early traders who want to bet on an early Long and still enjoy a BALANCE of a healthy probablity to win AND a high reward v Those who are interested in a higher degree of confirmation might search for two successive candles of four hours‘ duration that close within the bear flag (the channel shown).</p><p>A bear flag is a pattern that is considered to be „busted“ when the price breaks to the downside on a substantial enough timescale, such as the 4-hour chart. This is an excellent example of a pattern that has been „busted.“ Bear flags are chart patterns that have the capability of indicating a possible trend reversal. However, when the price instead reverses up and re-enters the bear flag, this is seen as a highly bullish development.</p><p>Note the difference between a „busted“ technical pattern and a „retest“ of a previously broken support or resistance</p><p>It is essential to differentiate between a „busted“ pattern, which occurs when the price goes much further than just retesting, and a retest of a broken support or resistance level, or any other key price level, which happens quite frequently. A „busted“ pattern occurs when the price goes much further than just retesting. A retest occurs when the price returns to a level of support or resistance that it has previously breached. Traders sometimes take advantage of this event as a chance to initiate or exit deals. A „busted“ pattern, on the other hand, is far more important and might reflect a change in market sentiment. This movement in emotion indicates that the prior pattern is no longer relevant.</p><p>Visit ForexLive.com <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis“>technical analysis</a> for additional views and trade the Dow Jones at your own risk. May the Dow be with you.</p>

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>When the inflation is generated by an external shock and runs at a high level, its positive impact on public finances can be reversed</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>According to the simulations, it takes one year for the euro area budget balance to be adversely affected by the inflation surge</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In subsequent years, however, spending pressures intensify and more than offset the benefits on the revenue side, leading to nearly 0.5% of GDP deterioration in the budget balance level in 2024</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Beyond the short run, euro area public finances may turn out to be negatively affected by the current high inflation episode</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This would be the case even without considering governments’ discretionary policy response to the high energy prices and inflation</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The monetary policy reaction required to avoid this inflation shock leading to undue second-round effects is being translated into an increase in interest payments on government debt</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Beyond the short run and conditional on the monetary policy reaction, a negative impact on economic activity from an adverse supply shock may outweigh the positive impact of higher inflation on debt ratios</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2023/html/ecb.ebart202302_01~2bd46eff8f.en.html“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full economic bulletin</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This is contrarian to the view of some that governments might benefit as debt is inflated away and nominal tax revenues rise. So, that is definitely some food for thought for the longer-term macro picture across the euro area should inflation continue to stay at a high level in the coming year(s).</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>S&P 500 futures have now inched into positive territory, cutting down losses of over 22 points from Asia trading earlier in the day. There aren’t any major headlines driving the recovery in the past hour or so and I would very much attribute this to some added choppiness and the push and pull in markets ahead of the main event tomorrow.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar is also sitting more mixed on the day as such, keeping higher against the yen and holding light gains against the franc, pound and loonie while sitting lower against the aussie and kiwi on the day.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Euro area growth in 2023 likely to be 0.9% (up from 0.3% previously in November)</li><li>To avoid the supposed earlier technical recession</li><li>Sees Q4 2022 GDP at 0.1% q/q, Q1 2023 GDP at 0.0%</li><li>Euro area inflation in 2023 seen at 5.6% (down from 6.1% previously)</li><li>Euro area inflation in 2024 seen at 2.5% (down from 2.6% previously)</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>On the forecasts, the European Commission did point out that uncertainty remains high but risks to growth are seen as being more „broadly balanced“ – something which the ECB also used in its language earlier this month.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.