<p>As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The US dollar is stronger head of the key core PCE data that will be released at 8:30 AM. The US PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data is a comprehensive measure of consumer spending on goods and services in the United States. It is released monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and serves as a key indicator of overall economic activity, consumer behavior, and inflation trends. The PCE data is also the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for assessing inflation, as it captures a broader range of expenditures and is less volatile compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The expectations is for core PCE to show and increase of 0.4% versus 0.6% last month. The year on year is expected to remain unchanged at 4.7%. Last month the year on year for the headline PCE came in at 5.4% (up 0.6% month-to-month). Personal income and personal consumption will also be released with the PCE data at 8:30 AM ET. Consumption is expected to increase by 0.3% while income is expected to increase by 0.2% for the month of February</p><p>In addition to the PC data, the University of Michigan sentiment for March will be released with expectations of a dip to 63.2 from 63.4 in the preliminary estimate. That was less than the 67.0 last month. The one year inflation estimate dipped to 3.8% from 4.1% in the preliminary report</p><p>Flash CPI data out of the Eurozone was released earlier today with the YoY falling sharply to 6.9% from 8.5%, and below its expectations of a 7.1%. Not as positive was that the core CPI flash came in at 5.7% versus 5.6% last month German retail sales were weaker than expected -1.3% versus 0.5% expected. The unemployment rate in the EU remained steady at 6.6%.</p><p>US rates are mixed with the yield curve flattening. The two-year is higher while the 10 year is trading marginally lower. US stocks are mixed/little changed.</p><p>A snapshot of the market is currently showing:</p><ul><li>spot gold is up $0.81 or 0.04% at $1981.25.</li><li>Spot silver is up four cents or 0.18% at $23.93. </li><li>WTI crude oil is trading up $0.58 at $74.95</li><li>Bitcoin is trading just below the 28,000 level at $27,966 the price has been consolidating between $26,541 and $29,380 since the March 17 break higher. </li></ul><p>In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are marginally higher as the first quarter comes to an end. The NASDAQ index is leading the way this quarter with a gain of 14.78% this quarter. The Dow Industrial Average is marginally lower at -0.87%, while the S&amp;P index is up 5.5%. </p><ul><li>Dow industrial average is up 79 points after yesterday’s 141.43 point rise</li><li>S&amp;P index is up 9.5 points after yesterday’s 23.02 point rise</li><li>NASDAQ index is up 5.8 points after yesterday’s 87.24 point rise</li></ul><p>In the European equity markets, the major indices are higher:</p><ul><li>German DAX +0.47%. For the quarter the index is up 12.0%</li><li>Frances CAC +0.55%. For the quarter the index is up 12.81%</li><li>UK’s FTSE 100 +0.25%. For the quarter the index is up 2.51%</li><li>Spain’s Ibex +0.32%. The index is up 12.24% for the first quarter</li></ul><p>in the US debt market, the yields are mixed with the shorter end higher and the longer end lower (yield curve flatter):</p><p>In the quarter the two year yield is down 27.5 basis points. It traded as low as -87 pips this quarter. The 10 year yield is down -33.5 basis points after being down as much as -59.3 basis points.</p><p>In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are mostly lower. The UK 10 year yield is higher:</p><p>For the first quarter:</p><ul><li>German 10 year yield is down -21.6 basis points. It was down as much as -65 basis points</li><li>UK 10 year is down -12 basis points. It was down as much as a 68.5 basis points.</li><li>Frances 10 year is down -24.5 basis points. It was down as much as -71.9 basis points.</li><li>Italy’s 10 year is down -54.5 basis points. It was down as much as – 103 basis points</li><li>Spain’s 10 year is down -28.8 basis points. It was down as much as -75 basis points.</li></ul>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-march-preliminary-cpi-69-vs-71-yy-expected-20230331/“>Eurozone March preliminary CPI +6.9% vs +7.1% y/y expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/bond-yields-dip-after-eurozone-inflation-data-20230331/“>Bond yields dip after Eurozone inflation data</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/and-bond-yields-climb-back-higher-after-the-dip-20230331/“>And.. bond yields climb back higher after the dip</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/france-march-preliminary-cpi-56-vs-55-yy-expected-20230331/“>France March preliminary CPI +5.6% vs +5.5% y/y expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-february-retail-sales-13-vs-05-mm-expected-20230331/“>Germany February retail sales -1.3% vs +0.5% m/m expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-march-unemployment-change-16k-vs-0k-expected-20230331/“>Germany March unemployment change 16k vs 0k expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-february-import-price-index-24-vs-10-mm-expected-20230331/“>Germany February import price index -2.4% vs -1.0% m/m expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-q4-final-gdp-01-vs-00-qq-prelim-20230331/“>UK Q4 final GDP +0.1% vs 0.0% q/q prelim</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-march-nationwide-house-prices-08-vs-03-mm-expected-20230331/“>UK March Nationwide house prices -0.8% vs -0.3% m/m expected</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Markets:</p><ul><li>GBP leads, CHF lags on the day</li><li>European equities higher; S&amp;P 500 futures up 0.2%</li><li>US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 3.541%</li><li>Gold flat at $1,980.83</li><li>WTI crude up 0.6% to $74.94</li><li>Bitcoin down 0.6% to $27,974</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Inflation data was a focus in Europe today as we saw the preliminary figures for March come in for the Eurozone. Headline annual inflation dipped by slightly more than estimated to just under 7%, reflecting its sharpest drop on record. However, core annual inflation ticked higher to a fresh record high in what is a contrasting report of sorts.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The bond market focused on the lower headline figure though, as bond yields dipped and pared its early advance. Short-end yields have come back up slightly but the long-end is basically sitting marginally lower on the day now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That saw USD/JPY fall from a high of 135.50 to sit closer to 133.10 levels at the moment, still up by 0.4% though.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar was steadier throughout, even as equities are seen just a touch higher – after having spent much of the session being little changed.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.0875 from around 1.0900 in Asia while GBP/USD is flattish around 1.2380 levels after coming close to test its December and January highs near 1.2446 earlier in the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, USD/CAD is seen bouncing off its 100-day moving average to be up 0.2% to 1.3545 while the antipodeans are slightly lower and still rather trapped in trading this week against the dollar mostly.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Month-end and quarter-end will be a focus point before we wrap things up this week, and don’t forget that we also still have the US PCE price index to follow in the session ahead.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>On the daily Nasdaq chart below, we
can see that after the selloff in February, the market bounced right at the
61.8% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. The breakout of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> and the cross to the upside of
the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> were signalling a possible <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>bull
flag</a> in play, but the buyers needed to break the previous swing <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> first to confirm the pattern. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>They did it. The target for the
bull flag looks insane as it stands at the August 2022 high at 13186, but we’ve
seen time after time how the dip buyers managed to push the market up even
though many bad news have been thrown to them, so at this point it wouldn’t be
a surprise anymore. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Nasdaq Technical Analysis</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that at the moment the buyers are trying to break the previous swing
resistance at 12020. A break above would open the door for a rally towards the
next resistance at 12274. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The red long period moving average
will act as dynamic support in case we see a pullback. The sellers at this
point will need a break below the 11492 support to regain conviction and target
new lower lows. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the market bounced at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level before
resuming the rally in the original trend. If we get a pullback, a possible
level where the buyers may lean onto is the red long period moving average and
the 11829 support. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>On the daily GBPUSD chart below, we can
see that the price has finally reached the top of the range at the 1.24 handle.
This will be a key level for both buyers and sellers. The buyers will need to
break above the level with conviction to keep the rally going. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The sellers are likely to start
piling in here to target a fall towards the bottom of the range at 1.1839 and
beyond. Beware that if this was just a squeeze on dollar longs, the following
rally in the US Dollar will be aggressive.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>GBPUSD Technical Analysis</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that we have a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>rising
wedge</a> right at the top of the range. This is a reversal pattern and we can
also see that we have a big and long <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“>divergence</a> with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/“>MACD</a>. The setup for the sellers looks
incredibly good now. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Generally, the target would be
the bottom of the pattern, which in this case comes at the 1.20 handle. So, the
sellers have a really high reward to risk ratio here. The buyers, on the other
hand, will need to break above the upper <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> and the top of the range to
invalidate the selling setup and extend the rally.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the buyers may lean on the 61.8% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level and the trendline before trying to break
above the top of the range. The sellers will want to wait for a break below the
trendline before piling in and extend the fall.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.