<ul><li>10-year Treasury yields down 5.5 bps to 3.928%</li><li>10-year German bond yields down 6.2 bps to 2.665%</li><li>10-year Italian bond yields down 12.3 bps to 4.450%</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The drop in yields is at least helping out equities a little, with S&P 500 futures seen up 9 points, or 0.2%, currently. Meanwhile, European indices are also up slightly by around 0.1% to 0.2% across the board. That said, the early moves now may not mean much as market players are all waiting on Fed chair Powell’s remarks later in the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Looking at FX, there isn’t much change among major currencies with exception to the aussie as noted <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/aussie-dribbles-lower-in-european-morning-trade-20230307/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a> – owing to the RBA’s less hawkish policy decision earlier today.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As a reminder once again, just be wary that we may see <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/icymi-the-text-of-powells-testimony-may-be-released-ahead-of-his-appearance-20230307/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>the text of Powell’s testimony be released ahead of time</a>.</p><p>Is it time for my speech yet?</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In the article, Timiraos says that „Powell is likely to caution on Capitol Hill that strong economic activity this year could lead U.S. central bank officials to raise interest rates more than they expected to combat high inflation“. Besides that, the rest is just some backdrop reading and you can check it out <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.wsj.com/articles/jerome-powell-to-testify-to-congress-on-outlook-for-rates-inflation-e4e7f1e3?mod=latest_headlines“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>here</a> (may be gated).</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As a reminder, we might be getting the text to Powell’s testimony a little earlier than his scheduled appearance. Keep an eye out for something between 1200 GMT to 1400 GMT.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the price is trending downwards in a clean way. The blue short period <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
average</a> has been acting as resistance which is a sign of a strong selling
momentum. The sellers will have the red long period moving average and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> as resistance in case the price
pulls back. </p><p>As of now, the sellers are in
control and it looks like we will have a test of the 0.6629 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> soon. The RBA today delivered a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/aussie-lower-after-rba-offers-subtle-change-to-policy-guidance-20230307/“>dovish
hike</a> which should give the US Dollar another tailwind as the market looks
for a higher terminal rate for the Fed. In case key US <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>economic data</a> like NFP and CPI comes out soft
though, we should see AUD/USD rallying as the market would reprice lower future
interest rate expectations. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the price has been ranging for about a week but today’s RBA monetary
policy announcement gave the sellers the catalyst to break out of the range. </p><p>The sellers may not be out of the
woods yet though as today we will have <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/icymi-the-text-of-powells-testimony-may-be-released-ahead-of-his-appearance-20230307/“>Fed
Chair Powell testimony</a> and it’s expected that if he sounds dovish, the US
Dollar will lose some ground so we may see the price getting back into the
range, and in case he sounds hawkish, we should see the US Dollar getting even
stronger. </p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the breakout of the range caused by the RBA catalyst. The
buyers will need the price to get back into the range to hope for another run
into the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 0.6781 which will need the
support from the fundamentals. </p><p>The sellers may wait for a retest
of the broken support now turned resistance before piling in again or more
probably wait for the Fed Chair Powell testimony later today. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the price started to consolidate near the neckline of the possible <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>double
top</a>.
Generally, when there’s a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“>divergence</a> between the double top and an
oscillator like the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/“>MACD</a> in this case, the chart pattern
is more reliable. </p><p>To be confirmed, the price needs
to break decisively below the neckline and it looks like the market is awaiting
new <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>key economic reports</a> like the NFP on Friday or CPI
the next week before getting the conviction and the momentum necessary to break
below such a strong level. </p><p>For now, the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> are acting as resistance maintaining the bearish bias, but they have
compressed and are now threatening a cross to the upside. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the price couldn’t break the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> on the first try, but it’s now
probing again above it. The range is clear with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 1.2143 and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at 1.1922. The buyers may now
target the top of the range if the break above the trendline is successful. </p><p>The sellers may want to wait for
the price to return back below the trendline to gain more conviction and pile
in ahead of the break below the support. We have <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/we-could-get-the-text-of-powells-opening-remarks-to-congress-later-today-20230306/“>Fed
Chair Powell</a> testimony today, and it’s expected that if he
sounds dovish risk assets will rally and support GBP/USD upside. On the other
hand, a more hawkish Powell should cause risk aversion and support the US
Dollar. </p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the current breakout of the trendline comes with a caveat: there is a
divergence between the price and the MACD. This may signal a fake breakout, but
it would need a fall back below the trendline to be confirmed. We have also an
upward trendline that supports the current uptrend. </p><p>The buyers should lean on it in
case the price pulls back, but the sellers will eye a break below it to pile in
more decisively and start targeting the support. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Concerned about persistence of core inflation</li><li>Weak pound is significant for inflation</li><li>There has been quite a hawkish tone from Fed and ECB</li><li>But the question is how much is priced into sterling</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>She has been one of the more hawkish voices in the BOE, even saying that last month if they had paused rate hikes then they would risk a „policy boogie“. So, the more aggressive tone here isn’t a surprise but those are interesting remarks at least with regards to the pound. But it is not likely that she will step over the line apart from what has already been said.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.