<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that after breaching the key <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> level at 11492 the sellers
couldn’t maintain control and the buyers came in with vengeance pushing the
price back above the level. The price is now at the red long period <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
average</a> which will act as resistance. </p><p>The rally on Friday is seen as a
squeeze as the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-february-ism-services-pmi-551-vs-545-expected-20230303/“>ISM
Services PMI</a> beat expectations and should have been bearish for
the market as good news is now seen as bad news due to the repricing of higher
interest rates. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the buyers will now fight with a strong level before getting more
conviction for higher highs. The price has rallied into a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> zone with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/“>confluence</a> of the 50% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. </p><p>The strong rally on Friday has
also overextended the price from the blue short period moving average. In such
instances, the price generally consolidates or pulls back before the next move.
</p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the near term price action. We can see that while the price
was breaching the support at 11492, it was <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“>diverging</a> with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/“>MACD</a>. That is a sign of a loss of
momentum and generally signals a pullback. </p><p>The moving averages on this
timeframe have clearly crossed to the upside and conservative sellers may want
to wait for them to cross back to the downside before considering new
positions. Aggressive sellers may start to pile in here at this strong
resistance zone. A break above should give the buyers control, so the sellers
can fold quickly. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Expects that it will take a very long time for inflation to come down</li></ul>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the breakout below the key <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> zone at 1920 has failed. The
buyers managed to break above the 1920 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> after the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-february-ism-services-pmi-551-vs-545-expected-20230303/“>ISM
Services PMI</a>. </p><p>This move has got the bears
scratching their heads since hot economic data should be bearish for the market
as it will require a more hawkish response from the Fed. Traders will look at
the technicals now as the picture gets muddier. The red long period <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
average</a> will act as resistance now and the sellers will probably lean on it to
fade the Friday’s rally. </p><p>In the 4
hour chart below, we can see that after the ISM Services PMI report the buyers
managed to break both the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> and the resistance zone. Maybe
stops above that zone triggered a squeeze. </p><p>Anyway,
the sellers will need the price to fall below the 1920 level again to gain
conviction and target new lower lows. This will make the 1920 zone also the
last line of defence for the buyers in case the price gets there. As of now,
the buyers are in control and the first target should be the swing resistance
at 1970. </p><p>In the 1 hour chart, we can see
that the moving averages are now acting as support for this bullish trend. We
also have the trendline and <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> levels in the 1920 support zone. </p><p>In case we see a pullback, the
buyers will be leaning on that trendline to resume the uptrend. The sellers, on
the other hand, will look at a break lower to fade the Friday’s rally and start
targeting the low at 1874. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar is sitting a little higher against most of the major currencies bloc today, while keeping a modest advance against the antipodeans in particular. As mentioned earlier, the latter move is a reflection of the dollar’s gains against Chinese yuan today – after having seen China disappoint with their GDP target for the year.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The counter flows seem to be enough to keep the dollar afloat for now, despite the fact that <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/bond-yields-continue-to-hold-slightly-lower-on-the-day-20230306/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>bond yields are pushing lower</a>. 10-year Treasury yields are down 5 bps now to 3.912% but USD/JPY is instead up 0.1% to 136.00 currently. The dollar’s gains are more evident against the aussie and kiwi, with the latter being pressed towards key technical levels again:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>NZD/USD is closing in on its 200-day moving average (blue line), which will act as a first line of defense before the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the swing higher since October last year, seen at 0.6145 next.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As much as the dollar is holding up, there’s still plenty of landmines to navigate through on the week with key central bank policy decisions in focus alongside Fed chair Powell’s testimony to Congress (tomorrow and Wednesday). That will keep markets on edge but if anything else, just be wary that often times it is the case that the bond market is always right and the dollar (and equities) will have to play catch up later on.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Stronger pressures in inflation are indicated from food-related costs and labour market developments</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Weaker pressures instead are arising from energy commodities, economic activity and supply-side bottlenecks</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Heatmap suggests inflation pressures are still strong but there are some emerging signs of easing</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>He adds that they would have to mark the latest wage developments as a high priority. Well, the headline while significant already fits with what markets are expecting i.e. more rate hikes by the ECB to follow. The question now is whether or not policymakers will make any firm „commitment“ after the March meeting.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.