<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the bearish trend is healthy in the AUD/USD pair with clean pullbacks
and selloffs. Commodity currencies are sensitive to global growth and risk sentiment,
and this is why we’ve been seeing the US Dollar appreciating the most against
currencies like AUD, NZD and CAD. </p><p>We can see that the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> are clearly crossed to the downside and are acting as resistance for
the buyers. The downward <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> is also defining the bearish
trend and the buyers will need a break above it to start getting some
conviction in a trend change. </p><p>Recently, the market priced out
hawkish bets on the Fed due to the failure of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/fdic-takes-control-of-silicon-valley-bank-20230310/“>Silicon
Valley Bank</a>. This has led to some USD depreciation, but
fundamentally it also means that we may be near the recession, which ultimately
favours the greenback. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the price has been rejected by the trendline and the 61.8% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. There may be some long covering before the
US CPI report today. <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>Inflation data today</a> should add to the recent
volatility. A beat to the expected numbers should give the USD a boost and give
the sellers the control to push the price to lower lows. A miss may extend the
USD depreciation and lead to the breakout of the trendline. </p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the price has <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“>diverged</a> with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/“>MACD</a> right at the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 0.6698 and the Fibonacci
level. This was a signal of a loss of buying momentum and in fact we got a
pullback. </p><p>We can also notice that there may
be a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>head
and shoulders</a> pattern with the orange trendline as the neckline.
The levels here are defined. If the sellers break below the neckline and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> zone at 0.6630, then we should
see new lower lows coming. If the buyers break above the resistance at 0.6698
and the trendline, then we should see a rally towards the next resistance at
0.6781. Watch out for the CPI report today!</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>He says that the collapse of SVB and the market turmoil that ensued after is just „part of the process“ as the world adjusts to tighter financial conditions following years of easy money.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“This is part of the process of the knob being turned to tighten financial conditions to make sure that we are on our way to normalising a higher interest rate world. But there might well be surprises, there might well be reactions.“</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s easier to just say it as it is when you’re part of a flock that must be protected at all costs by lawmakers and policymakers alike. As said earlier, when the smaller and regional banks are facing such troubles, there is only one winner. And it is these bunch of guys:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/jpmorgan-other-big-us-banks-flooded-with-new-clients-post-svb-collapse-ft-2023-03-14/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>JP Morgan, other big US banks flooded with new clients post SVB collapse – FT</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that compared to other currencies, the US Dollar hasn’t weakened too much.
This may be because the CAD is a commodity currency and it’s sensitive to
global growth and commodity prices. </p><p>The bad news out of the US like a
miss in <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-weekly-initial-jobless-claims-211k-vs-195k-expected-20230309/“>Jobless
Claims</a>, the pickup in the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-february-non-farm-payrolls-311k-vs-205k-expected-20230310/“>unemployment
rate</a> and the failure of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/fdic-takes-control-of-silicon-valley-bank-20230310/“>Silicon
Valley Bank</a>, are also bad news for the Canadian economy which
has the US as the biggest trading partner. </p><p>Moreover, the US is the biggest
economy in the world, and when it goes into recession the whole world is
affected, which is also bearish for commodities like oil for example. In fact,
we saw <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CIPuZN0R/?symbol=NYMEX%3ACL1%21″>oil
prices</a> falling in line with the fall in the USD. </p><p>We can see on the chart that the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> are still clearly pointing north and the bullish trend with extensions
and retracements looks healthy. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that price has pulled back to the upward <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> and the 50% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. The buyers here will be fighting to push
the price up as they have many technical tools all in one place. </p><p>The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at 1.3664 will be the last line
of defence for the buyers as a break lower would open the door for a bigger
fall towards the 1.3520 level. A lot may be hanging on the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>US CPI report today</a>. In case we get a beat in the
data, the USD should come back, while a miss may give the sellers control and
lead to the breakout. </p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that there’s a possible inverted <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>head
and shoulders</a> right at the trendline. This may be a sign that
the buyers are piling in and are looking for a push higher. </p><p>The neckline would be at 1.3800
but a break higher of the counter-trendline would give the buyers enough
conviction to start rallying and target the 1.3861 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> without waiting for the neckline
break. All of this should be considered after the US CPI report as ultimately,
it’s the data that will give the direction. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.