<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The mood music seems to be improving in the equities space as we see S&amp;P 500 futures cover losses to be down by just a little over 2 points, or 0.07%, now. For some context, it was down by as much as 36 points earlier in the day as we headed into European morning trade.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Dow futures are also just down by 0.2% now with Nasdaq futures already in the black, seen up by 0.3% on the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>With the FX market still looking rather sanguine about the whole SVB situation, it looks like stocks are also starting to turn the corner. Now, all there’s left is the bond market or are they the ones who have gotten the call right on this matter?</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>2-year Treasury yields are still down 8.2 bps to 4.818% while 10-year yields are down 7.4 bps to 3.849%, though both are well off the lows from earlier in the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>When you throw in the US jobs report later, it is going to be really messy for Wall Street trading today.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Here’s a look at how the last ten months of the data looks like:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-april-non-farm-payrolls-428k-vs-391k-expected-20220506/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>April 2022</a>: +428K vs +391K expected</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-may-nonfarm-payrolls-him-390k-vs-325k-estimate-20220603/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>May 2022</a>: +390K vs +325K expected</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-non-farm-payrolls-372k-vs-268k-expected-20220708/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>June 2022</a>: +372K vs +268K expected</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-non-farm-payrolls-528k-vs-250k-expected-20220805/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>July 2022</a>: +528K vs +250K expected</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-august-non-farm-payrolls-315k-vs-300k-expected-20220902/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>August 2022</a>: +315K vs +300K expected</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-september-non-farm-payrolls-263k-vs-250k-expected-20221007/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>September 2022</a>: +263K vs +250K expected</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-october-non-farm-payrolls-261k-vs-200k-expected-20221104/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>October 2022</a>: +261K vs +200K expected</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-november-non-farm-payrolls-263k-vs-200k-expected-20221202/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>November 2022</a>: +263K vs +200K expected</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-december-non-farm-payrolls-223k-vs-200k-expected-20230106/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>December 2022</a>: +223K vs +200K expected</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-nonfarm-payroll-517k-vs-185k-estimate-unemployment-rate-34-vs-35-estimate-20230203/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>January 2023</a>: +517K vs +185K expected</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>You have to go back all the way to <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-march-non-farm-payrolls-431k-vs-490k-expected-20220401/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>March data</a> last year to the last time that the non-farm payrolls figure missed on estimates.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The estimate this time around is for a +205K reading for the month of February, which will reflect a drop from January’s figure of +517K (before any revision).</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The stakes are high for this one, especially considering how Fed chair Powell has basically pushed the thought of any firm guidance towards the upcoming data. This will be the first big landmine before we get to the next one in the form of next week’s consumer <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“ad51a5a2-1afc-4f42-9e62-ea6faf6f90fa“ target=“_blank“>inflation</a> report.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As much as broader markets might be distracted by the whole saga involving SVB since yesterday, let’s not forget that the jobs report today will play an immense role in market pricing ahead of the FOMC meeting later this month.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In that sense, for global markets, this is still a massive economic release to watch out for – even more so considering the kind of build up we are seeing in the past week.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>After falling below its January lows on Tuesday, GBP/USD looked poised for a further downside move but buyers have been resilient enough to stay in the game as we a turnaround over the past few sessions. And after a slightly better January monthly GDP reading earlier today <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-january-monthly-gdp-03-vs-01-mm-expected-20230310/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>, the pound is starting to move higher in European morning trade.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>GBP/USD is now on the move back towards 1.2000 with the 100-day moving average (red line) at 1.2014 providing added resistance for the latest rebound. Break above and buyers will start to seize back control of the pair but keep below and sellers will stay interested to try and angle for another downside push.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The final hurdle this week is going to come from the US jobs report at 1330 GMT later in the day. That, considering the dollar – and major currencies in general – are looking rather sanguine to the risks and concerns brought up in broader markets at the moment.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the price is again approaching the broken <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> that now may act as support for
the buyers. The last bounce stalled at the red long period <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
average</a> and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 4061 where the sellers piled
in and then increased the selling pressure as <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/ka-powell-20230308/“>Fed
Chair Powell</a> signalled a possible 50 bps hike and a higher
terminal rate. </p><p>Yesterday we got another selloff,
but it’s not yet clear why that happened, although many are attributing it to
problems with a regional <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/why-is-the-market-in-a-full-fledged-flight-to-safety-mode-20230310/“>US
bank</a> that sparked fears of contagion. Anyway, all eyes will be on today’s <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/preview-february-non-farm-payrolls-by-the-numbers-20230309/“>NFP
report</a>. </p><p>In the 4
hour chart below, we can see that after stalling at the resistance at 4061 and
the 50% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level, the market sold off pretty aggressively due
to Powell’s comments. The moving averages crossed to the downside and the
sellers leant on the red long period moving average to extend the selloff even
further into the NFP report. </p><p>We now
may get a pullback as some position may be squared ahead of the event. The
moving averages will act as resistance but the direction will most likely be
decided by the data. </p><p>In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that yesterday the price rallied into the downward trendline as <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-weekly-initial-jobless-claims-211k-vs-195k-expected-20230309/“>jobless
claims</a> missed expectations and then sold off as the stock market opened. It
could have been just positioning into a strong NFP report or the fear of
contagion due to the regional bank problems. </p><p>Hard to explain. The plan for the
traders seems clear today: if the data beats expectations, we should see the
sellers in control and push the price lower. On the other hand, if the data
misses expectations we may see a rally towards the 4061 resistance. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Market picture</p><p>The crypto
market is suffering impressive losses, mirroring traditional markets flee from
risk, which has mainly hit the financial and tech sectors—total crypto
capitalisation is down 6.5% in the last 24 hours to 930 billion.</p><p>Bitcoin fell
below $20K (-7.9% in the last 24 hours), an emotionally significant level for
the first cryptocurrency. As expected, the drop below $21.5K accelerated the
sell-off. Bitcoin is currently testing its 200-day moving average, which
appears to be the last line of defence on the way to $18K. </p><p>Further
decline in risk-sensitive assets can punish early crypto optimists and raise
questions about whether we are in the ‘crypto spring’. The bulls have technically
oversold, and the fact that markets rarely quickly abandon 200-day MA.</p><p>News Background</p><p>US
authorities have moved to the Coinbase around 10,000 BTCs seized from the Silk
Road darknet marketplace. Market participants fear that the US authorities will
start selling off the bitcoins seized from cybercriminals.</p><p>Another
reason for the decline in the crypto market was the closure of Silvergate Bank.
Previously, there had been rumours that Silvergate Bank might reopen, but
management decided to close the bank and return deposits to customers.</p><p>The head of
the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Rostin Behnam, said that the
agency, not the SEC, should regulate Ethereum and stablecoins because they are
commodities. According to Behnam, he would only have allowed the launch of ETH
futures if he was firmly convinced that it was a commodity. Previously, SEC
chief Gary Gensler argued that all crypto assets except bitcoin are securities.</p><p>This article was written by <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.fxpro.com/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>FxPro</a>’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.