• Bond yields turn lower ahead of US trading
• Aussie still feeling the weight of the RBA decision yesterday
• Third time’s the charm for gold?
• Equities stay more cautious so far today
• ECB’s Vasle: Core inflation is still clearly on an upwards trend
• ECB’s Vujčić: Further rate hikes may be needed to address core inflation
• Germany February industrial orders +4.8% vs +0.3% m/m expected
• Eurozone March final services PMI 55.0 vs 55.6 prelim
• UK March final services PMI 52.9 vs 52.8 prelim

Markets:

• JPY leads, AUD lags on the day
• European equities slightly lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 1.6 bps to 3.353%
• Gold up 0.2% to $2,023.14
• WTI crude down 0.1% to $80.65
• Bitcoin up 1.0% to $28,551

It was a rather tentative session for the most part as major currencies were more tentative before a late turn in the bond market is sparking some decent action.

We are seeing bond yields trip lower now ahead of US trading, with some watchful eyes on the ADP employment data to come.

That is weighing on yen pairs with USD/JPY slipping from 131.75 earlier to 131.40 levels now with other major currencies also losing some ground against both the dollar and yen. That comes amid a more cautious risk mood, with equities slightly more sluggish.

GBP/USD backed away from the 1.2500 mark again to hold around 1.2475 while the aussie sagged as the post-RBA fallout continues to reverberate. AUD/USD is down 0.8% to below 0.6700 and that inadvertently put a drag on the kiwi as well, which erased its post-RBNZ gains from earlier as NZD/USD fell from 0.6350 to 0.6300 on the session.

Elsewhere, gold is maintaining its composure above the $2,020 mark mostly while oil is seeing a bit more push and pull in keeping above $80 for now still.

On to the next data series ahead of the Friday jobs report then. Anyone fashion a good roulette table for the ADP draw?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Keep an eye on the move here as we could see wider reverberations come about later on. USD/JPY is also seen down 0.2% now to 131.45 from around 131.75 earlier in the session. As I mentioned here earlier, this is one of the focal points in markets at the moment with 10-year yields in the US on the threshold.

Besides the usual spillovers to the Japanese yen and US dollar, do keep a watchful eye on gold as it maintains the break above the $2,000 mark from yesterday.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

On the daily Nasdaq chart below, we
can see that after breaking out of the bull
flag, the market has rallied towards the key resistance level at 12274. The buyers will
want to see a clear break above it to start targeting the next resistance at
13186. The moving
averages are crossed to the upside, so the trend remains bullish and the buyers
are in control.

As long as the US data doesn’t
come out ugly, the buyers seem to be comfortable charging higher. Today we will
see the US ISM Service PMI and it’s a key economic
indicator for the services sector which remained resilient despite the
aggressive tightening and the recession fears.

Nasdaq
Technical Analysis

On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that we have a trendline now that will be used as a
support for the buyers. If we get a pullback here, the price is likely to
retrace back to the trendline where there is also the red long period moving
average for confluence. The buyers are likely to pile
in there, while the sellers will want to see the price breaking below the trendline
to jump onboard and target the support at 11492.

On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the 12014 level is indeed a strong support for the buyers. Not only we
will have the trendline and the 4 hour long period moving average, but also the
38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level. What happens at this level is likely to
decide the next big move. A bounce should bring us to the 12274 resistance if
not higher and a breakout should lead to a selloff back to the 11492
support.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

The emphasis on core inflation continues to point to the idea that ECB policymakers are still leaning in favour of another rate hike at least, even if they can’t explicitly say that at the moment.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

After the setback yesterday, stocks are holding a more tentative and cautious mood so far in European trading. Here’s a snapshot of things:

• Eurostoxx -0.2%
• Germany DAX -0.3%
• France CAC 40 -0.2%
• UK FTSE +0.4%
• S&P 500 futures -0.2%
• Nasdaq futures -0.2%
• Dow futures -0.2%

For the DAX and CAC 40 indices, it is a bit of a light retreat after running up against its highest levels for the year in trading yesterday.

The JOLTS report yesterday was perhaps a reason for the pessimism creeping into equities and that makes for a bit of trepidation ahead of the ADP report later in the day.

That said, I would be remiss not to point out that you can pretty much draw up a dart board and throw to any figure there to get the ADP number these days. It has not been any accurate indicator of what to expect from the non-farm payrolls data for the longest of time now.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.