<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-turns-lower-as-risk-gains-pick-up-20230403/“>Dollar turns lower as risk gains pick up</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/oil-buoyed-by-weekend-surprise-but-the-technicals-remain-challenging-20230403/“>Oil buoyed by weekend surprise but the technicals remain challenging</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/opec-jmmc-reaffirms-that-voluntary-oil-output-cuts-will-be-166-million-bpd-20230403/“>OPEC+ JMMC reaffirms that voluntary oil output cuts will be 1.66 million bpd</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/what-are-markets-expecting-ahead-of-the-rba-policy-decision-tomorrow-20230403/“>What are markets expecting ahead of the RBA policy decision tomorrow?</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-march-final-manufacturing-pmi-473-vs-471-prelim-20230403/“>Eurozone March final manufacturing PMI 47.3 vs 47.1 prelim</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-march-final-manufacturing-pmi-479-vs-480-prelim-20230403/“>UK March final manufacturing PMI 47.9 vs 48.0 prelim</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/switzerland-march-cpi-29-vs-32-yy-expected-20230403/“>Switzerland March CPI +2.9% vs +3.2% y/y expected</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>AUD leads, JPY lags on the day</li><li>European equities mostly higher; S&amp;P 500 futures down 0.1%</li><li>US 10-year yields up 1 bps to 3.50%</li><li>Gold up 0.4% to $1,975.93</li><li>WTI crude up 6.5% to $80.66</li><li>Bitcoin down 0.5% to $28,243</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The session started off with the dollar in a decent spot, holding gains across the board carried over from Asia. But as bond yields come down a little and equities pick up a touch, we are seeing the dollar lose ground and stumble lower now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Tech stocks are the laggard and that is leaving a bit of a balancing act ahead of the Wall Street open later. Nasdaq futures are lower, putting a bit of a drag on S&amp;P 500 futures, but Dow futures are modestly higher on the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The big story in markets though came from the weekend, in which we got a surprise announcement from the Gulf States – saying that they will cut oil production significantly. That led to a rip higher in oil prices, with WTI crude opening with a gap above $80 today.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There was a brief retreat below the key level but as we look towards US trading now, prices are heating up again to $80.60 levels roughly now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In FX, the dollar gave up gains on the session with EUR/USD running up from 1.0790 to 1.0875 while USD/JPY dropped from 133.75 to just below 133.00 currently amid a retreat from the highs for bond yields.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>USD/CAD is a decent gainer, moving down from 1.3530 earlier in the session to 1.3450 now as oil gains gather pace.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But it is the aussie that is leading the charge, with AUD/USD now up over 1% to 0.6760 from around 0.6660 earlier as traders build on the positive risk momentum and also some balanced thinking ahead of the RBA tomorrow.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Dow futures are leading the way today, up 0.4%, and that is seeing S&amp;P 500 futures having to balance things out with tech sentiment lagging to start the week. Nasdaq futures are down 0.6% but outside of tech, things are a little more optimistic with European indices also mostly slightly higher on the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In FX, the dollar is turning lower with the aussie leading gains as AUD/USD climbs up by 0.8% to 0.6735 at the moment. It has been a steady climb higher during European trading and that is a testament to the dollar’s sluggishness during the session as well:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Bond yields have also come off now with 2-year Treasury yields up by just a little over 1 bps to 4.073% while 10-year yields are flat at 3.492%, paring their earlier advance. That has seen USD/JPY also come off the boil in a drop from around 133.60 earlier to 133.00 at the moment.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.0860 from around 1.0790 in the handover from Asia to Europe while GBP/USD is up 0.3% to 1.2370 from around 1.2275 earlier in the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>USD/CAD is down 0.4% to 1.3460 again after running up into a test of its 100-day moving average at 1.3520 earlier in the session with the loonie continuing to be buoyed by higher oil prices.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As mentioned earlier, it just reaffirms the totality of the move from the weekend <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/saudi-arabia-and-other-gulf-states-announce-1-million-barrels-per-day-in-oil-output-cuts-20230402/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a> and Russia’s own 500k bpd cut.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>On the daily chart below for the Russell 2000, we can
see that after finding a strong <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at the 1731 level, the price has
rallied all the way back to the top of the range at 1800 and it’s now threatening
a major breakout. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> are still crossed to the downside, but a break above the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> should make them cross to the
upside confirming the new bullish trend. This is where the sellers should pile
in with defined risk above the trendline and target the break below the 1731
support. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Russell 2000 technical analysis</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the 4
hour chart below, we can see that the price is probing out of the range as the
price is trading above the top of the range. The buyers will now have lots of
strong barriers like the trendline and the 50% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>They will
need a clear break above all of those resistances to invalidate the bearish
setup and start targeting the 1900 level. The sellers, on the other hand, are
likely to pile in here as the risk to reward ratio looks very good for them. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the 1 hour chart, we can see
that the price is still trading within a rising channel. More conservative
sellers may want to wait for the price to break below the lower bound of the
channel before considering new shorts, while the aggressive ones should be
piling in here. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The buyers will need a break
above the upper bound of the channel, the trendline and the 50% fib level to
get the conviction to target new higher highs. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The meeting is likely to just reaffirm and back the surprise move by the Gulf States over the weekend to cut oil production, as seen <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/saudi-arabia-and-other-gulf-states-announce-1-million-barrels-per-day-in-oil-output-cuts-20230402/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>. As for the oil market reaction, I shared some thoughts here:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/oil-buoyed-by-weekend-surprise-but-the-technicals-remain-challenging-20230403/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Oil buoyed by weekend surprise but the technicals remain challenging</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.