• UK March retail sales -0.9% vs -0.5% m/m expected
• France April flash services PMI 56.3 vs 53.4 expected
• Germany April flash manufacturing PMI 44.0 vs 45.7 expected
• Eurozone flash April services PMI 56.6 vs 54.5 expected
• UK April flash services PMI 54.9 vs 52.9 expected
• BOJ reportedly likely to maintain policy, dovish guidance next week
• ECB’s de Guindos says will stick to data-dependent approach in the months ahead
• ECB’s Visco: We are yet to see the full effect of rate hikes
• ECB’s Rehn warns against early withdrawal of restrictive monetary policy
• Tokyo Stock Exchange says plans to extend trading hours by 30 minutes from 5 November 2024

Markets:

• JPY leads, AUD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.2%
• US 10-ear yields down 1 bps to 3.535%
• Gold down 0.9% to $1,987.33
• WTI crude up 0.3% to $77.35
• Bitcoin down 0.6% to $28,028

It was a mixed trading session for the most part, with markets not really following much of a theme.

In terms of data, UK retail sales disappointed once again and that is keeping the pound pressured. Meanwhile, euro area PMI data saw a contrast between services and manufacturing activity but on the balance of things, it points to a more solid recovery in economic conditions in the region.

That failed to really light a spark in the euro though, as it mainly just reaffirms the ECB’s current policy conviction. That said, EUR/USD is keeping steady around 1.0975 and is up from around 1.0945 earlier in the session.

GBP/USD is a laggard, slipping from around 1.2430 to 1.2380 before keeping around 1.2390 levels at the moment. USD/JPY traded more sideways as Treasury yields are holding slightly lower on the day, with the pair hovering around 133.80 to 134.00 mostly.

The antipodeans are also holding lower, with AUD/USD down 0.7% to just under 0.6700 upon a rejection of its 200-day moving average at 0.6741 with AUD/JPY also trading back under 90.00 on a rejection of its own 100-day moving average.

Elsewhere, equities were sluggish throughout as the back and forth action this week is leaving traders with little appetite it would seem. European indices are slightly lower after a flattish open while US futures are also just slightly lower, adding a little to yesterday’s retreat.

In other markets, gold is keeping lower by nearly 1% to $1,987 as the state of flux in and around the $2,000 mark continues to play out. Meanwhile, WTI nudged lower initially to test its 100-day moving average at $76.80 before climbing back up to $77.35 now and holding marginally higher on the day.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

On the daily chart below for the Nasdaq, we can
see that the market consolidated just below the key 12274 resistance. The moving
averages are still crossed to the upside keeping the bullish trend intact, but
they are starting to converge as the rangebound price action has been going on
for almost a month now.

The latest economic data are not
supportive for the bulls as the US
Retail Sales missed expectations across the board and the Jobless
Claims keep showing increases week after week. Today the market will focus on
the US PMIs and if those miss expectations
as well, then we may see the trend turning around.

Nasdaq
technical analysis

On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the consolidation below the key resistance. The moving
averages on this timeframe have crossed to the downside, although they are not
a reliable signal in a range.

The market is still uncertain
where to go next, so the economic data will be very important. The buyers will
need to see benign data, while the sellers will want to see more deterioration.

On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see the clear range created just below the key resistance. Generally, it’s best
to sit out when the market starts ranging and wait for a clear breakout
supported by a fundamental catalyst. Today we have the US PMIs so we may have a
catalyst, but the price will also need to break on either side before the
buyers and sellers can join.

A miss in the data with the price
breaking lower would give the sellers conviction to pile in and target the
swing low at 11650. A beat and the price breaking above the top of the range
will give the buyers conviction to jump onboard and target the next resistance
at 13100.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

• We have moved policy to an area that restricts aggregate demand
• There is no reason for us to abandon it or exit it prematurely
• The path to sustainable growth is narrow
• But it can be traversed with a proactive, balanced policy

As they are still on the path of tightening policy further to guard against high inflation, these remarks are pretty much just a supportive element. If and when price pressures do ease and they can start to look at pausing, the narrative can quickly switch around especially if economic conditions worsen rapidly.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The pound is doing that thing where it is following the action in commodity currencies again today, with it being one of the worst performing major currencies alongside the antipodeans. GBP/USD is now down 0.5% to 1.2380, sitting near the lows for the day.

The pair had already come under pressure from the softer UK retail sales data earlier and that is perhaps doing a number on the pound today as well. And with the dollar seen firmer across the board (except against the yen), that is seeing cable under a bit of pressure in European trading.

That said, in the big picture, the pair is still very much caught in a bit of a bind between support closer to 1.2345 and the 1.2500 mark for the time being:

And if you zoom out to the weekly chart, one can argue that the pair is essentially caught in between key support (6 January low) near 1.1840 and key resistance (14 December high) around 1.2446 for now.

That pretty much outlines a sort of confined trading range for cable in the grand scheme of things, until we get a firm break on one side or the other.

It doesn’t really help that the BOE is still being forced to hike that little bit more while markets are at the same time expecting the Fed to relent and head to the sidelines after May.

That is putting both dollar and pound sentiment sort of in the same basket when it comes to central bank outlook. The lack of policy divergence isn’t really helping to give a clear shot for traders as they take aim at GBP/USD.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Here’s a snapshot of things now:

• S&P 500 futures +0.1%
• Nasdaq futures +0.1%
• Dow futures flat
• Eurostoxx +0.1%
• Germany DAX -0.2%
• France CAC 40 +0.2%
• UK FTSE +0.4%

For me, it’s a testament to how mixed trading sentiment has been all through the week. There is still US PMI data to follow later today and that is the last data hurdle before the weekend. The euro area PMI data earlier doesn’t seem like it is having much of an impact as traders look to be slowly gearing towards key central bank decisions in May instead.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.