Archiv für den Monat: April 2023
Wheat futures price forecast: Analyzing the technicals and potential targets
In this article, we will explore wheat futures technical analysis and provide a price forecast based on current market trends. We’ll also discuss potential trading strategies and risk management for those interested in wheat-related assets.
Key Points for the wheat futures technical analysis video
- Wheat futures breakout of an ascending wedge on the 4-hour time frame
- Next probable target: 700 round number
- Potential retest and entry points for investors and traders
- Longer-term price movements and possible targets
Wheat Futures Technical Analysis: Breakout of Ascending Wedge
A recent technical analysis on the 4-hour time frame shows that wheat futures (ZW) have broken out of an ascending wedge. This bullish pattern suggests that the next probable target for ZW could be the 700 round number.
Possible Retest and Entry Points
Investors and traders may want to time their entries with a possible retest of the descending wedge, while being aware that it might not happen and they could miss their entry points. A balanced approach could be to scale into the trade, ensuring risk management while taking advantage of potential price movements.
Always trade at your own risk and consult ForexLive.com for additional perspectives on wheat futures technical analysis and price forecasts.
Wheat Futures on the Weekly Time Frame: Building a Base
Looking at the weekly time frame, wheat futures have experienced a strong downtrend from their all-time high of 1430.6, currently sitting about 52.3% below that level. However, the market may be starting to build a base and find support in an area that has seen consolidation and price reactions in the past. This could indicate an interesting area to bet on wheat building a base and potentially moving higher.
Potential Longer-Term Targets: 800 Round Number
If the base-building scenario plays out, traders and investors may consider aiming for a longer-term target of the 800 round number, close to previous highs. For those trading long, it could be worth leaving a portion of the position (e.g., 20% or more) to capitalize on a possible move towards 800.
Different instruments, such as call options, CFD contracts, or future contracts, can be used to play this potential longer-term move in wheat futures.
In summary, wheat futures technical analysis points to a breakout from an ascending wedge, with the next probable target being the 700 round number. Investors and traders should keep an eye on possible retest levels and entry points, as well as longer-term targets around the 800 round number. As always, trade at your own risk and visit ForexLive.com for additional views and insights on wheat futures price forecasts.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.
MUFG trade of the week: Stay short USD/JPY, sell USD/CAD
MUFG Research maintains a short USD/JPY exposure (spot ref: 134:70) in its TOTW portfolio with a target at 129.00, and a stop at 138.50.
„We are maintaining a short USD/JPY trade idea. While there are risks of further increases in US short-term yields, we doubt USD/JPY will gain to the same extent of traction and see risks of the move higher petering out,“ MUFG notes.
MUFG also added a fresh short USD/CAD position (spot ref: 1.3375), with a target at 1.2950, and a stop at 1.3650.
„We’re adding a short USD/CAD trade idea based on recent developments we view as CAD supportive,“ MUFG notes.
For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
Yellen says outflows from banking system have stabilized but what about within the system?
- Deposit outflows from the banking system have stabilized. Things have been calm but monitoring carefully
- Bank lending standards have tightened somewhat , may be more tightening to come
- Not seeing anything dramatic enough to significantly change outlook for moderate growth, strong labor market and easing inflation
- Over time, there is risk that financial system sanctions linked to dollar could ‚undermine the hegemony‘ of the US dollar
- Sanctions do create desire by China, Russia and Iran to find an alternative to dollar
I find it interesting that Yellen said outflows from the banking ’system‘ have failed rather than saying outflows from small banks have stabilized. Jim Bianco highlights that yesterday mega-cap US banks jumped and small cap banks fell 2.1% in a sign that money is flowing in one direction without leaving the system.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
S&P 500 technical analysis: Understanding the recent sell-off and forecasting future price
In this video, I look at the recent S&P 500 technical analysis and provide a price forecast based on the findings (spoiler: IMHO, we are headed to 4200). A surprising selloff occurred following a rally on Friday, and we’ll explore the reasons behind it while considering possible future price movements.
Key Points within the S&P 500 e-mini futures analysis video
- Yellow, green, and purple channels in S&P 500 e-mini futures technical analysis
- Recent sell-off triggered at the top of the green channel
- Upcoming resistance at 4178 and possible breakout scenarios
S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Channels and Touch Points
The S&P 500 e-mini futures technical analysis on the two-hour time frame shows three channels: yellow, green, and purple. The yellow channel starts with the first touch point and pivot low points on the 13th of March, featuring touch points at the bottom and others on the 22nd of March, April 3rd, and April 4th.
On Friday, the market rallied to create a second touch point with the pivot point on April 4th, leading to the formation of the green channel. The purple channel will also be followed in this analysis.
Sell-Off Triggered at the Top of the Green Channel
On the one-hour time frame, a sell-off was triggered at the top of the green channel after Friday’s rally. The trend line stopped the sell-off, and a new channel was formed with the bottom band of this trend line. Three touch points on the top were observed on the 12th and 13th of April.
Why Multiple Channels Matter
These channels and junctions are important because market participants, including trading algorithms and professional traders, are likely monitoring them. The dotted line represents the midpoint of the yellow channel, and the market is approaching 4178, which is also the top of the high on April 12th. This indicates potential sellers in the market.
Potential Future Price Movements I’m looking at
There are multiple possible scenarios for future price movements. One possibility is a drop, followed by a breakout of the channel to reach the top of the purple channel, close to the 4200 round number. Alternatively, the market may rally up to the purple top band and then follow a different path to reach the 4200 round number.
In either scenario, profit-takers may choose to take partial or full profits from previously profitable long positions. As always, trade at your own risk and visti ForexLive.com technical analysis for additional perspectives on S&P 500 technical analysis and price forecasts.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.