• OPEC oil output fell by 86k bpd to 28.8 mil bpd in March
• Sees world oil demand to rise by 2.32 mil bpd this year (unchanged from prev. forecast)
• Recent reopening of China still not sufficient to reverse declining trend in global refinery intakes
• Any economic weakness from rate hikes could weigh on US summer demand
• Demand outlook for OECD also remains challenging

As you would expect, the report fits the narrative of their decision to surprise with cutting production as they warn that demand conditions could be affected in the coming quarter. Besides that, the output decline fits with the planned cuts from before and some outages; all before incorporating the decision here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• EUR/USD tries for a break above 1.1000 again
• ECB policymakers reportedly converging towards 25 bps rate hike in May
• Japan senior lawmaker says appropriate for BOJ to not change YCC for now
• UK February monthly GDP 0.0% vs +0.1% m/m expected
• Germany March final CPI +7.4% vs +7.4% y/y prelim
• Eurozone February industrial production +1.5% vs +1.0% m/m expected

Markets:

• CHF leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities a little higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 0.3 bps to 3.424%
• Gold up 0.6% to $2,026.23
• WTI crude down 0.4% to $82.75
• Bitcoin up 0.9% to $30,230

Markets are continuing to digest the US inflation data from yesterday but it seems like the verdict is that the dollar might be set for another round of weakness before the weekend.

EUR/USD is pushing above 1.1000 with the high hitting 1.1030, though there are some large option expiries that could be holding back price action for now. Meanwhile, GBP/USD also jumps up to its highest in ten months above 1.2500 as buyers are angling for a technical break higher as well.

USD/CHF is also sinking to its lowest levels since February 2021, testing waters around 0.8900 now after the drop below 0.9000 in trading yesterday.

Alongside the dollar, the yen is the laggard as bond yields remain little changed on the day. That is seeing the likes of EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY also race to fresh highs for the year at 146.75 and 149.60 respectively.

European equities are holding higher mostly with French stocks leading the charge, as the CAC 40 looks for a breakout upon hitting fresh record highs. That is keeping the commodity currencies slightly higher on the day as well.

If you’re wondering why if markets are convinced of a 25 bps rate hike by the Fed in May, that the dollar is still weakening, it’s all about what comes next as outlined here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Finance Magnates
Africa Summit (FMAS:23) is almost here, taking place in just a few short weeks
on May 8-10, 2023. Held at the luxurious Sandton Convention Centre in
Johannesburg, South Africa, the event will bring together the best forex and
crypto traders in Africa.

Africa has been rapidly
developing its forex and crypto markets in recent years. Since the pandemic,
the continent has seen a proliferation of activity in the online trading
industry, attracting brokers, service providers, and more.

Fast forwarding to
the present, FMAS:23 will capture the hype, potential, and excitement of this
trend. The event of the year in Africa will be attracting top industry talent,
leading traders and specialists, and thousands of like-minded attendees.

It is expected
to draw upwards of 3000+ attendees, 70+ exhibitors, 100+ brokers, 50+ speakers.
All will be available to discuss, engage, and network with during the duration
of FMAS:23.

The landmark summit
cannot afford to be missed. As
a reminder, there is still time to register for free and sign up today for the biggest
event of the year!

Why Forex and Crypto
Traders Should Attend FMAS:23

• Prestigious opening party for
  networking
• Opportunity to meet top-level
  traders, experts, and speakers
• Chance to learn, engage with
  peers, traders, specialists
• Overall luxurious experience in
  Sandton, South Africa
• World-class closing party

FMAS:23 offers
several benefits for attendees as well as multiple reasons for attending. The
summit will be of particular interest for traders and the B2C scene as a whole,
namely the forex and crypto trading sphere.

This is due in part
to unique opportunities for networking, engaging, and learning from some of the
leading figures and specialists in the forex, crypto, and CFDs space. That the
event is taking place in Africa is also special, given the potential for such a
large user base of new and established traders to mingle and congregate in one
location.

Africa itself
continues to see a surge of investment, interest, and development in the retail
trading scene. This means more traders than ever before are signing up with
brokers, engaging in trading services, and more.

In terms of content,
FMAS:23 will be comprised of 2.5 days of unique panels, sessions, workshops,
discussions, and more, touching on every corner of the retail trading industry.

The biggest brands
and traders will all be in attendance – whether you are a new entrant to the
trading scene or are a veteran, FMAS:23 has something for everyone. The agenda for the event is already live and can be accessed by the following link.
With so much content at your disposal, the time to set your agenda to maximize
your time during FMAS:23 is now.

Get ready to rub shoulders
with some of the biggest names in the finance industry. The Finance Magnates
Africa Summit will attract top-level leaders from across the globe, providing
an unparalleled opportunity to network with and learn from the best. Whether
you’re looking to make new connections or seek out potential partners, this is
the place to be.

See you in Johannesburg
this May!

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

On the daily chart below for
XTIUSD, we can see that the price is now threatening a major breakout of the
range. The market has been stuck in this range since December 2022. We got a
breakdown in mid-March as the market feared an immediate recession due to the
little banking crisis after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.

As the Fed backstopped the crisis
with emergency lending tools and the fear faded, the price rebounded and came
back into the range. Then we got a surprise OPEC+
production cut the last week that made the market to gap up and
open $6 higher than the previous close. That gap hasn’t been filled yet and the
market kept on bidding with the price now at the top of the range.

XTIUSD technical analysis

On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the price action and the gap created by the OPEC+ news. It’s
also worth noting that the latest push to the upside is diverging with the MACD. This may be a sign that the
momentum isn’t really there, and it may turn into a fakeout.

Today we have the US Jobless Claims report and the market may go
into risk-off if the data miss again expectations signalling that the labour
market may be finally weakening. This should be bearish for oil as the market
will look at lower demand ahead. If the data beats expectations, then we may
see a real breakout and oil may reach the $90 handle.

On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see how the price is about to break yesterday’s high. The buyers may want to
wait for the economic data to confirm the breakout and pile in aggressively.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see worse economic data and a
further confirmation from the technicals, where a break below the trendline would end the strong bullish
momentum and bring the price down to fill the gap.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

He says that new BOJ governor, Kazuo Ueda, is right to have judged that there is no need to change the yield curve control (YCC) settings for now. This is consistent with what he said last month already, in which he mentioned that „it is my understanding that Mr. Ueda will continue with the BOJ’s current stance“.

Do be reminded that if we are to see the BOJ change up its view on monetary policy, it would need a sort of unspoken validation from the government. And it doesn’t seem like we are at that point yet.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.