• Spain prime minister Sánchez calls for snap election in July
• Europe looks to inflation data again later this week
• Dollar mildly lower as we get into holiday-thin trading in Europe
• Heads up: US non-farm payrolls to be released later this week

Markets:

• AUD leads, EUR lags on the day
• European equities slightly lower; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%
• Gold down 0.1% to $1,945.17
• WTI crude down 0.2% to $72.51
• Bitcoin up 4.2% to $27,885

It was a quiet session in Europe as it is a bank holiday and UK markets are also out for the day. Add that to the long weekend in the US and it made for a rather subdued session with little focus and appetite in general.

Major currencies held in tight ranges as the dollar trades mildly lower at the balance. However, the technicals continue to favour the greenback with USD/JPY holding above 140.00 despite being down 0.3% to 140.20 levels at the moment.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD are both little changed and flattish around 1.0720 and 1.2345 respectively. Meanwhile, commodity currencies are just lightly higher as US futures are also holding light gains after weekend news that the US debt ceiling deal has been done.

As US markets are also closed, we’ll have to wait on tomorrow to officially kick start the trading week but keep in mind that month-end trading will make things a bit tricky before we get to inflation data in Europe and US non-farm payrolls on Friday.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

On the daily chart below, we can
see that the Dow Jones has bounced from the key 32684 support as positive news on the debt
ceiling deal lifted the sentiment last Friday going into the weekend. The
market positioned for a possible deal over the weekend and sure enough, Biden
and McCarthy announced
a deal yesterday.

The Dow Jones opened with a
positive gap in electronic trading hours that soon after got closed. We may now
see a classic “sell the fact” trade where the market trades into an expected
outcome and then reverses when the outcome is confirmed. The red 21 period moving
average will be the one to watch as the sellers lately leant on that to
position for more downside.

Dow Jones Technical Analysis

On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that as we expected last Friday, the Dow Jones bounced from the 32684
support. The long candlesticks wicks on the support were giving a clue that the
buying pressure was high there. The rally broke above the 33000 resistance and
hit today the next 33300 resistance.

From here, we should see a
pullback and then another push into the 33800 level in case the “sell the fact”
trade is invalidated. On the other hand, if we do get the “sell the fact”
scenario, the Dow Jones should fall from here back to the 32684 level and
possibly stretch beyond that.

In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the buyers will have the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level and the red 21 period moving average near
the 33000 resistance
turned support. This will be a key buying zone with a limited
risk just below it. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the Dow
Jones to break below that zone to pile in for a bigger fall into the 32684
support.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

On the daily chart below, we can
see that the Russell 2000 is still stuck in the range between the 1723 support and the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level as resistance. Last week, the positive
headlines about a debt ceiling deal gave the Russell 2000 a boost going into
the weekend as the market expected a possible deal over the weekend.

Sure enough, Biden and McCarthy announced
a deal and the futures market this morning opened with a positive gap that was
soon after closed during the overnight trading. This may turn into a “sell the
fact” type of trade, so the technical levels will help with identifying that.

Russell 2000 Technical Analysis

On the 4
hour chart below, we can see that the big selloff from the 50% Fibonacci
resistance stalled near the 1740 swing low support and bounced as positive news
on the debt ceiling deal lifted up the risk sentiment. On one hand, if this is
a “sell the fact” trade, we should see the whole rally getting faded and the
Russell 2000 falling back into the 1723 support. On the other hand, if this
isn’t the case, then the price may start to rise again and reach the 50%
Fibonacci resistance at 1820.

On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the last Friday we got the breakout of the trendline and the
resistance zone at 1760 that eventually ended up in a strong rally for the
Russell 2000. Now, the buyers should be waiting at the 1775 resistance
turned support where they will also find confluence with the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level and the red 21 period moving
average. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price to break
below that 1775 support zone to position for a fall into the 1760 level and,
upon an eventual breakout, target the 1723 low.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

It is a bit of a surprise announcement as the general election would already be due in December. The Sunday votes were a bit of a litmus test for Sánchez and the outcome was a resounding failure for him as the conservative People’s party saw massive gains across the country.

Spain’s stock index, the IBEX, opened higher earlier in the day but has erased all of its gains now as political risks start to rear its ugly head again.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Are you ready to delve into the world of Bitcoin trading? In this Bitcoin technical analysis and trade idea for May 29, 2023, I will provide you with valuable insights into the current market conditions. By exploring the upward channel and volume profile, we will help you identify potential entry and exit points for your trades. Stay informed and make educated decisions with the latest updates from ForexLive.com.

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown promising signs as it pushes upwards, and it’s essential to consider its correlation with NASDAQ and S&P 500 futures. These assets often influence BTC’s performance, so monitoring their trends can provide valuable clues. Currently, both NASDAQ futures and S&P 500 futures are performing well, indicating a potentially open bullish gate for BTC-USD.

BTC looks bullish but where can I enter?

So, where should you enter the market? One option is to consider the 20 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) on the daily timeframe. At the moment, the 20 EMA is located at 27,296. Placing a long position near this level could be a strategic move. To manage risk effectively, set your stop-loss below the value area low, which is around 24,800. By doing so, you can limit potential losses.

Suppose you are comfortable trading with low leverage. In that case, you may consider aiming for the top of the channel, which currently sits near 35,000. However, keep in mind that higher leverage entails greater risk, and it may not be wise to risk more than ten percent of your capital. Adjust your position size accordingly to align with your risk appetite. Check out the video for the Long trade ideas showing this.

Alternatively, you can set your stop-loss if the price crosses down the channel. This approach reduces risk and offers a potential reward-to-risk ratio of 7.19 to 1. With this strategy, you aim for the significant 35,000 price level, providing an attractive reward. Partial profit-taking near the 30,000 mark, indicated by a previous high, could be a prudent move while still keeping a portion of your position open.

For those willing to take more frequent trades, exploring lower time frames could be an option. However, be aware that this approach may increase the likelihood of being shaken out of the trade. By setting your stop-loss just below the green trend line on a lower time frame, you can have a closer stop. If you return to the daily timeframe, your risk will decrease to 2.19 percent, while the potential reward-to-risk ratio remains nearly 5 to 1. Consider taking partial profits around 30,000 to lock in gains.

Remember, these strategies provide guidance and orientation. Depending on your risk tolerance and trading style, you may choose to adapt and adjust your approach accordingly. It’s crucial to stay updated with market developments, so regularly check ForexLive.com for additional comments, perspectives, and possible updates in the comment section.

In summary, Bitcoin appears to have a bullish outlook as long as it remains within the upward channel presented in the above technical analysis video. However, a bearish premise may develop if BTC crosses down and closes two consecutive daily candles below the value area high of 24,750. In such a scenario, a potential visit to the point of control near 16,750 USD cannot be ruled out. Stay informed and make wise trading decisions based on reliable information.

Have a fantastic week, and don’t forget to stay tuned to ForexLive.com for more insights and updates on the exciting world of Bitcoin trading

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.