This adds to the earlier decision from Fitch here, which is pretty much the same story. DBRS Morningstar notes that the review with negative implications „reflects the risk of Congress failing to increase or suspend the debt ceiling in a timely manner“. Adding that:

„While we still expect Congress to raise the debt ceiling before Treasury runs out of available resources, there is a risk of Congressional inaction as the X-date approaches. DBRS Morningstar would consider any missed payment of interest or principal as a default. In such a scenario, the relevant U.S. Issuer Ratings would be downgraded to “Selective Default.” „

You can check out the full post here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Rates are clearly in restrictive territory
• ECB has already completed most of the rate hike journey
• To monitor passthrough of „massive“ past rate hikes

It seems quite clear now that the ECB isn’t going to give a firm answer on when they would expect rates to peak. Given the resilience the economy to start the year, they have room to work with to be more data dependent and that is precisely what they are doing. A June rate hike, and arguably July, is a given but whether or not there is one more after that remains to be seen.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It is certainly not been a good week for the kiwi whatsoever. Not only did the RBNZ’s dovish tilt weigh on the currency, the more negative risk mood in markets also compounded the declines in the past few sessions. Add in a stronger dollar to the equation, and NZD/USD sellers are indeed looking for a downside break after a couple of months of consolidation:

The pair had been ranging somewhat between 0.6100 to 0.6300 mostly with a couple of attempts in early April and mid-May to chase a move towards 0.6400. Those ultimately faltered and now with a break back below 0.6100 – the lowest levels since November last year, we could see the downside momentum gather pace.

The next key target will be the 50.0 Fib retracement level around 0.6025 with the 0.6000 mark also in focus for sellers.

A lot will hinge on the daily and weekly closes today and tomorrow respectively, so just keep an eye out for that and how that will play into the technical picture for the pair.

But with the dollar continuing to stay more poised across the board and risk sentiment still looking skittish outside of tech stocks, it isn’t boding well for the kiwi as we look towards the latter stages of the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

On the daily chart below, we can
see that the downtrend remains strong in the EURUSD pair. The multiple failures
to break the 1.1033 high, coupled with stronger than expected US data and a
hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations, led to a big selloff. The double
top at the
1.1033 high may take us all the way back to the 1.0533 support, which is also the neckline of
the pattern.

In such a scenario, EUR/USD would
erase all the post-SVB collapse rally, which is something we’ve also been
seeing across the other markets. The divergence between the two tops with the MACD also strengthens the case for a
return back to the 1.0533 level.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see how the EURUSD has been trading lower within a falling channel with clear
swing highs and swing lows. The price has now reached the first downside target
in the form of the bottom of the previous divergent rising channel. We should
see a bounce on this level as the price has been diverging with the MACD
falling right into this support. This should be a signal that the bearish
momentum is waning, and we may see a pullback before the next fall.

On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the price recently bounced from the lower bound of the channel to
trade higher into the upper bound of the channel. The 50% Fibonacci
retracement level stalled the rally and after a bit of
consolidation, EUR USD broke lower, retested the support
turned resistance and continued lower.

The buyers should now lean on the
1.0710 support with defined risk just below it and target the 1.0760
resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price to break
through the support to target the 1.0533 level, but we should also see them
lean on the 1.0760 resistance for a better risk to reward setup.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 5

Retail sales volumes dipped again in May, after a return to growth in the previous month. The slight positive is that retailers do expect sales volumes to stabilise next month as the month ahead expectations reading came in at 0. But once again, the report here highlights the struggles faced by retailers amid high inflation.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.