• Aussie thrown a bit of a curveball via inflation data today
• Japan finance minister says exchange rate should move stably
• ECB’s de Guindos: July rate hike is set
• ECB’s Centeno: Inflation is easing as quickly as it went up
• ECB’s Muller: Need to look at the data for rate hike beyond July
• ECB’s Vujčić: There is a good chance of a September rate hike
• ECB’s Vasle: We need to keep tightening policy at our next meeting
• Italy June preliminary CPI +6.4% vs +6.8% y/y expected
• France June consumer confidence 85 vs 83 prior
• Germany July GfK consumer confidence -25.4 vs -23.0 expected
• Eurozone May M3 money supply +1.4% vs +1.5% y/y expected
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 23 June +3.0% vs +0.5% prior

Markets:

• USD leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%
• US 10-year yields down 2.9 bps to 3.738%
• Gold down 0.4% to $1,906.01
• WTI crude flat at $67.73
• Bitcoin down 1.1% to $30,335

There weren’t much meaningful headlines on the session but there were some interesting developments to take note of at least.

The yen continues to stay on the softer side with USD/JPY above 144.00 and that is still prompting verbal intervention by Japanese officials.

Meanwhile, there were some slightly mixed messaging by the ECB (the first case this week) with Centeno casting doubts over a September rate hike. Other officials were either on the fence or maintained a more hawkish view but it is a small glimpse that perhaps we are reaching a point where there might be more differing views in the central bank.

A drop in Italian inflation is also a reason for slightly lower bond yields on the day, though Treasury yields have looked heavy since Asia trading in any case.

The dollar is holding steady and mostly firmer across the board, with the big gains mostly against the antipodeans today. That owes much to a weaker aussie after a softer Australia monthly CPI data here. AUD/USD is down 0.7% to 0.6635 but the kiwi is the one bearing the brunt of today’s selling, with NZD/USD down 1.2% to 0.6090 currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

There aren’t any major headlines to have dragged the pair lower but it comes against the backdrop of a modest performance by the dollar today. Of note, the antipodeans are dragged much lower after Australia’s softer monthly CPI data – which surprisingly saw a strong bounce in AUD/NZD off its 100-day moving average and 1.0800 mark.

Anyway, going back to cable, things are certainly getting interesting now as the near-term chart would suggest below:

The recent upside move has stalled just at around 1.2800 and there has been a bit of consolidation since. However, price action has slipped back below its key hourly moving averages and that is giving sellers some incentive to search for a push lower next.

The 200-hour moving average (blue line) in particular is limiting the upside move over the past week, with some help from the 100-hour moving average (red line) at times. But in essence, sellers are leaning on either one or the other to keep the downside momentum going.

However, they are unable to breach the near-term support around 1.2685-90 and that will be a pivotal line in the sand to watch out for in the second half of the week.

If that gives way, there could be added downside for cable to come. But keep above that and buyers will still have some stake in the game to work with before seeing the move higher earlier this month completely unravel.

As an aside, do keep an eye out on risk sentiment in broader markets as that also tends to have some impact on the mood in cable more often than not.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Ethereum faced significant pressure due to recent
regulatory actions and a shift towards a more hawkish repricing of Fed interest
rates. However, the cryptocurrency showed a remarkable resilience and staged a
strong rally once the hawkish expectations subsided, and regulatory
uncertainties settled. All else being equal, the recent strong bounce from a
key support level indicates that Ethereum’s pullback may have ended,
potentially paving the way for new higher highs. However, if we get another
round of hawkish repricing triggered by strong economic data, or even a
recession, we could see more downside for Ethereum.

Ethereum Technical Analysis
– Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Ethereum has
bounced right from the upward trendline and the
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
The price since then rallied strongly and even broke out of a key downward
trendline before stalling at the 1930 swing high level. We are now seeing some
consolidation beneath the resistance but the
bias for now remains bullish.

Ethereum Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has
pulled back into the upward trendline where we can also find the 38.2%
Fibonacci retracement level. This is where we should see the buyers stepping in
with a defined risk below the trendline and target a break above the 1930
resistance to reach eventually the 2100 high. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in and extend the selloff
into the 1681 support.

Ethereum Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the current bullish setup with the price reacting to the trendline.
From here we should expect the price rallying towards the 1930 resistance. If
the bounce fails and the price breaks lower, then we should expect the price to
fall into the broken downward trendline first and then possibly extending the
selloff into the 1681 support.

This week is
relatively calm on the data front with only the US Jobless Claims tomorrow and
the US PCE on Friday. However, we will hear from many central bank members,
including Fed Chair Powell today.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.