Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com takes a deep into the technicals defining the bias, risk and key targets for the USDJPY heading into the new trading week starting June 5, 2023. In the report, he looks at the daily chart and then drills into the hourly chart.

Get your week started on the right foot by understanding what levels are key and in play for the USDJPY. .

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF sellers had their shot on Friday on the break of the 200-hour MA, but could not sustain momentum. The better US jobs report started the wheels in motion for a move back to the upside. That took the price back above the 200 and 100-hour MAs in the process (at 0.90564 and 0.90718 respectively).

However, there is also key upside target resistance at 100-day MA and the 50% retracement of the 2023 trading range both at 0.9126. That level will be targeted next week and would need to be broken and stay broken, if the buyers are to take more control.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The key move technically in the USDCAD last week, was the move back below the 100 and 200 day MAs. That tilted the bias more to the downside for the pair from a technical perspective.

The other thing of note from the daily chart is the convergence of the 100/200-day MAs. That is indicative of a non-trending longer-term market which could be a clue for a break outside of the range… soon. Non-trend transitions to trend.

The video will outline the levels that would keep the bearish bias and potentially lead to a break outside the up and down trading range in the USDCAD pair.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• US May non-farm payrolls +339K vs +190K expected
• Fitch says will resolve US negative ratings watch in Q3
• Timiraos: Non-farm payrolls won’t resolve Fed rate scenarios
• OPEC+ is considering an additional output cut of around 1 mbpd – report
• OPEC will debate additional cut among possible options – report
• Iraq oil minister: We will not hesitate to take any decision to create more balance
• Baker Hughes oil rig counts fall -15 to 555 in the current week

Markets:

• Gold down $29 to $1948
• WTI crude oil daily +$1.85 to $71.93
• S&P 500 up 62 points to 4289
• US 10-year yields up 8.3 bps to 3.69%
• US 2-year yields up 16 bps to 4.50%
• AUD leads, JPY lags

Non-farm payrolls beat the consensus estimate for an unprecedented 14th time and it beat it in a big way but

Non-farm payrolls beat the consensus estimate for an unprecedented 14th time and it beat it in a big way but the details told a different story and capped the dollar gains, at least initially. The unemployment rate jumped to 3.7% from 3.4%, wage growth was modest and the household survey showed a large drop in employment, particularly self-employment.

Initially, the dollar gave back almost all its gains but a second dollar bid arrived later as yields rose. Front end yields led the rise and my guess is that represents a dwindling possibility of a Fed overtightening error and a higher possibility of a soft landing.

For months now, the bond market hasn’t been concerned about inflation and has instead been pricing rates and growth. With the Fed set to skip a meeting and perhaps pause, there’s less of a chance of a yo-yo in policy where they hike too high and are forced to quickly cut.
Or at least that’s one way of looking at a market that’s been tough to explain over the turn of the month.

Dollar buying accelerated in the final hours of European trading with the euro, pound and yen falling hard.
The commodity currencies kept pace with the US dollar as stocks – and value stocks in particular – jumped.

Again, that could be an indication that markets are pricing in better global growth outcomes and along with that was the earlier report that China was planning some targeted real estate stimulus. Before NFP, the market was hesitant to react to that report. For me, the details (like cutting real estate commissions) are underwhelming but at least they show that Beijing is paying attention to its disappointing economy.

Later in the day, the loonie found some bids alongside oil as some OPEC reports about the possibility of a 1 mbpd cut on Sunday did the rounds. The market reaction in oil was tepid to those headlines and that shows it’s at least partly priced in already.

Have a great weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It was time for the laggard indices to take control today. Both the Dow industrial average and the Russell 2000 of small-cap stocks outperformed the NASDAQ which is been the big outperformer in 2023.

The final numbers for the day are showing:

• Dow industrial average rose 797 points or 2.12% at 33762.59. That was the strongest percentage gain since January 6 when that index rose 2.13%
• S&P index rose 61.34 points or 1.45% at 4282.35. The S&P is closing the 2nd week in a row above its 100-week moving average (at 4199.50). The gain today was the largest sense May 5.Bullish.
• NASDAQ index rose 139.77 points or 1.07% at 13240.76. The low price this week in the NASDAQ stalled right against its 100-week moving average at 12889.20. The high price and close extended above the fit percent midpoint of the move down from the all-time high in 2022 at 13150.53. Bullish.
• Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks surged 62.96 points or 3.56% to 1830.905. That gain was the largest since November 10, 2022 when the index soared by 6.108%

Year to date, the Russell 2000 and Dow Industrial Average have lagged the other broader and tech heavy indices. For the 2023 trading year

• Dow Jones industrial average is up 1.86%
• S&P index is up 11.54%
• NASDAQ index is up 26.51%
• Russell 2000 is up 3.95%

For the trading week, the snapshot shows:

• Dow Jones industrial average up 2.02%
• S&P index up 1.83%
• Nasdaq up 2.04% and up for the 6th consecutive week.
• Russell 2000 up 3.26%

A good day for all US indices and a good week as well.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.