• Prior +6.1%
• CPI +0.3% vs +0.2% m/m expected
• Prior -0.1%
• HICP +6.8% vs +6.7% y/y expected
• Prior +6.3%
• HICP +0.4% vs +0.3% m/m expected
• Prior -0.2%

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Here’s a snapshot of the equities space:

• Eurostoxx +0.6%
• Germany DAX +0.3%
• France CAC 40 +0.8%
• UK FTSE -0.2%
• S&P 500 futures 0.3%
• Nasdaq futures +0.4%
• Dow futures +0.3%

Things are improving after a bit of a tepid and flattish start to the session. And that is helping to pin back the dollar a little as we hit midday in Europe. With month-end and quarter-end in focus though, it is a little tricky to read into the moves here. If the selling last week had much to do with genuine economic concerns, then this little reprieve might not stand the test of time come next week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Fed’s Powell says expects moderate pace of interest rate decisions to continue
• Fed’s Powell: Process of getting to 2% inflation target has a long way to go
• Fed’s Bostic: I don’t see as much urgency to move as stated by others
• Fed’s Bostic: Nobody should take a signal from my view that we should pause
• Japan finance minister says closely watching FX moves
• China state banks reportedly seen selling dollars to prop up the yuan
• ECB’s de Cos: September meeting decision is „absolutely open“
• Spain June preliminary CPI +1.9% vs +1.7% y/y expected
• North Rhine Westphalia June CPI +6.2% vs +5.7% y/y prior
• Bavaria June CPI +6.2% vs +6.1% y/y prior
• Saxony June CPI +6.8% vs +6.5% y/y prior
• Eurozone June final consumer confidence -16.1 vs -16.1 prelim
• UK May mortgage approvals 50.52k vs 49.70k expected

Markets:

• AUD leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.3%
• US 10-year yields up 3.3 bps to 3.744%
• Gold up 0.2% to $1,910.13
• WTI crude up 0.5% to $69.89
• Bitcoin up 1.8% to $30,653

There was plenty of central bank talk during the session but none of which are anything new in my view, to shift the dial ahead of the upcoming meetings in July.

Market players had little to work with early on and there wasn’t much appetite but things are gradually picking up now ahead of US trading. Equities were flat and tepid earlier but have pushed a little higher, with the slight optimism flowing to FX as well.

The dollar was little changed mostly in the handover from Asia, but is now seen slightly lower on the day. EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.0930 from around 1.0900 at the start of the session. Meanwhile, USD/JPY did move to a high of 144.70 before a quick check back to 144.20 now as intervention risks are building.

The antipodeans are the notable gainers, helped out by China’s intervention in the yuan again early on. The aussie is also bolstered by stronger Australia retail sales data and AUD/USD is up 0.5% to 0.6635 currently. The better risk mood in markets at the moment is also helping with that at least.

It will be interesting to see if the optimism can keep up ahead of month-end and quarter-end tomorrow. Perhaps we’re due for some window dressing after the selling in the past week and a half?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The recent US economic data surprised expectations to
the upside and pressured gold as the prospects of more rate hikes weigh on the
precious metal. In fact, since the FOMC meeting where Fed Chair Powell said
that they expect two more rate hikes this year if the economy performs as
expected, we had very strong housing market data, solid
US Jobless Claims, US Services PMI in
expansion and an incredibly strong Consumer Confidence report. If
the data remains strong, we can expect the Fed to keep hiking and lead to a
sustained depreciation in gold.

Gold Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that gold has been
on a steady downtrend as the US data keeps on surprising to the upside and the
Fed remains hawkish. The break of the key 1934 support should
have led to a more aggressive selloff, but we are seeing some resistance from
gold. In fact, the bearish momentum looks weak, and this is probably because
the market is waiting for the next NFP and CPI reports as they will be pivotal
for the Fed’s decision. The moving averages are
crossed to the downside, so the bearish trend is clear and, all else being
equal, we can expect a fall into the support level at 1805.

Gold Technical Analysis – 4
hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has
been moving very slowly to the downside as the bearish momentum looks weak. In
fact, the price is diverging with the
MACD, and the
sellers would be better off leaning on the downward trendline where
they will also encounter the daily 21 moving average. If the price breaks above
the trendline, we should see more buyers coming in and extend the rally into
the 1984 resistance.

Gold Technical Analysis – 1
hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the sellers
at the moment are leaning on the 21 moving average to enter the market as they
target a break below the recent low at 1902. Today’s US Jobless Claims
report will be important for the next move as strong data should lead to more
downside, while weak figures should provide the pullback into the trendline.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.