Despite worrisome factors
such as a higher unemployment rate and lower average weekly hours, the recent
release of the NFP data has had minimal impact on the Nasdaq
Composite. The labour market has exhibited resilience, albeit with some
looseness, which could potentially result in lower inflation without causing
severe harm to the economy.

Furthermore, the
underperformance of the ISM Services PMI has not affected the market
significantly. Instead, speculation has arisen from the sub-index indicating
lower prices paid, suggesting the possibility of decreased core inflation
without substantial damage.

The market cautiously
considered the significant miss in Jobless Claims, taking into account the impact of
seasonal adjustments, while also acknowledging the improvements seen in
Continuing Claims. Overall, the market chose to emphasize the positive aspects
of the data rather than dwell on the negatives.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite started to struggle a lot just above the key 13174 swing level. The
index has been curiously underperforming its peers recently prompting some
speculation that we may be peaking. It had a great run since breaking out of
the bullish flag back in
March, but the good news are getting exhausted and we are entering a period
where the data is expected to show either a deterioration in the economy or a
stickier inflation.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that if were to get
a pullback, the nearest support zone is
at the upward trendline where we
can also find a previous swing support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
From a risk management perspective, that’s the best level where the buyers can
re-enter the market with a defined risk just below the support zone.

The sellers, on the other hand, are probably
already piling in here to target the trendline and a possible breakout, while
more conservative sellers may be waiting for a break of the trendline first
before jumping onboard to target the 12274 support.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we’ve
been diverging with
the MACD right
at this resistance level. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often
followed by pullbacks or reversals. The fact that we are seeing it here makes
it more significant. A break below the minor upward trendline would give the
sellers even more conviction for a fall into the major upward trendline where
we are likely to find the buyers fighting for more upside.

This week holds a series of significant events for the Nasdaq
Composite. It all starts with the eagerly awaited US CPI report scheduled for
tomorrow. This report is anticipated to have a crucial influence on shaping the
market’s expectations for the upcoming FOMC rate decision, which is scheduled
for the following day. Additionally, later in the week, we can expect another
Jobless Claims report and the release of the University of Michigan consumer
sentiment survey. The previous release of this survey had a notable impact on
the market, primarily driven by a substantial surge in long-term inflation
expectations.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• USD/CAD takes a look below key trendline support to start the week
• AUD/USD marches on towards April, May highs
• Central banks in the spotlight this week
• BOE’s Haskel: Further rate hikes cannot be ruled out
• SNB total sight deposits w.e. 9 June CHF 509.8 bn vs CHF 519.0 bn prior

Markets:

• AUD leads, GBP lags on the day
• European equities slightly higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.3%
• US 10-year yields up 0.8 bps to 3.753%
• Gold up 0.1% to $1,962.44
• WTI crude down 2.4% to $68.50
• Bitcoin down 1.9% to $25,953

It was a quiet session as markets get settled into what will be a blockbuster week coming up over the next few days.

There is a lack of key events and data today but that will all start to change from tomorrow onwards. Central banks are back in the spotlight and all eyes will be on the Fed in particular, with the ECB and BOJ policy decisions also in focus.

Major currencies aren’t showing much poise and the dollar is just marginally lower as the changes today are relatively minor at best. You can’t really blame traders for that as convictions are low at the moment, awaiting the key risk events to come.

EUR/USD did push up from 1.0750 to 1.0790 but is now keeping little changed around 1.0765 while GBP/USD moved up to test 1.2600 before slipping back to 1.2565 at the moment.

The loonie and aussie are the two more interesting currencies from a technical standpoint, testing some limits against the dollar as noted in the posts above.

Besides that, equities are steady alongside bonds so there isn’t much to work with for now. But the S&P 500 may look poised to test its August high of 4,325 so keep an eye out for that later in US trading.

Elsewhere, oil is suffering a poor start to the new week with a big slide of over 2% to $68.50 and is now testing key technical support from its 200-week moving average again. That level is where the drop in March and May were held, so it will be a big moment for oil traders over the next few days.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Market
picture

According to
CoinMarketCap, the total capitalisation of the crypto market fell 7.6% over the
week to $1.06 trillion, close to lows not seen since almost mid-March. Adding
to the market’s nervousness was a sharp sell-off in altcoins in light of the
SEC’s ongoing crusade against the crypto business.

The biggest
demand in such a market is for USDT, as issuer Tether decided to print an
additional 1 billion stablecoins.

Bitcoin once
again briefly acted as a safe haven, temporarily enjoying an influx of buyers
as one of the most liquid assets in the sector. At the same time, the technical
picture remains bearish. Bitcoin closed the week below its 200-week moving
average, which last time out resulted in a 20-week downtrend. On the daily
timeframe, there is little to cheer about as the decline remains within the
bearish corridor. However, the final victory of the bears can only be seen in
the case of a fix below $25,000, from which BTCUSD bounced over the weekend.

Ethereum
lost 6.5% to $1750. Other leading altcoins from the top 10 changed from 3%
(XRP) to -28% (Solana) and 22% (BNB).

News
background

The US
authority’s crackdown on the Binance and Coinbase exchanges has hit the entire
crypto industry. Altcoins, which the SEC classifies as securities, have been
particularly hard hit.

Former SEC
official John Reed Stark believes that owners of cryptocurrency assets should
abandon their investments because the storm in the US crypto industry has only
just begun. Crypto exchanges have no reason to comply with laws and regulations
prohibiting manipulation, insider trading and other fraudulent activities. According
to a former SEC official, they operate without oversight and offer poor
customer protection and risk identification.

Binance is
prepared to spend $1 billion to fight the SEC, Bitboy Crypto’s YouTube blogger
reported, citing the company’s lawyer.

According to
Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone, the likelihood of a negative stock market
recession in the US, as well as a gold hoarding trend coupled with Fed policy
tightening, could harm crypto investor sentiment. As a result of the pressure,
the riskiest assets could be pushed out of investment portfolios.

During a
conference call, Ethereum developers approved details of a future update to the
network, called Dencun (Cancun-Deneb), expected later this year.

Ethereum
co-founder Vitalik Buterin published a roadmap outlining key areas for the
sustainable development of the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency.

This article was written by FxPro’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

The pair has heavily respected the key trendline support (white line) from the November and early February lows over the past few months. But sellers are looking to make a play now in pushing below that as we get into what will be a blockbuster week for markets.

For me, I’m not going to be too convinced in chasing a technical break without confirmation of the main events from later this week. So, even with a potential break, buyers are not out of it yet as the dollar could still be set for a turnaround depending on the US CPI and Fed decision in the next few days.

Adding to that of course, there are also still several additional layers of support that sellers need to chew through.

• November low @ 1.3225
• February low @ 1.3262
• April low @ 1.3300
• May low @ 1.3314

That’s roughly a 90 pip layer where buyers can still show some fight to produce a reversal of sorts when push comes to shove this week. So, only if we do shake that off would I be more convinced of a technical breakdown below the 1.3200 mark for the pair.

But again, it all comes down to what the central bank decisions and big data will have to offer this week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Despite revealing worrisome
factors such as a higher unemployment rate and lower average weekly hours, the
recent release of the NFP data has not significantly impacted the Dow
Jones. The labour market has shown resilience, albeit with some looseness,
potentially leading to lower inflation without causing severe damage to the
economy.

Additionally, the market
has not been affected by the underperformance of the ISM Services PMI. On the contrary, the sub-index
indicating lower prices paid has fuelled speculation that core inflation could
decrease without causing substantial harm.

The market viewed the
significant miss in Jobless Claims with caution, considering the
impact of seasonal adjustments, while also acknowledging the improvement seen
in Continuing Claims. Overall, the market chose to emphasize the positive
aspects of the data rather than dwell on the negatives.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones
has rallied strongly as soon as it broke out of the downward trendline. The
price stalled at the 33854 swing level resistance, but
picked up shortly after breaking above it and extended the rally towards the
key resistance zone at 34477. The price looks overstretched now as depicted by
the distance with the blue 8 moving average.
Generally, the price pulls back into the moving average to find a new
equilibrium before the next move.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a divergence with the
MACD, which
is generally a sign of a weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. Given that we are near the key resistance zone, this divergence may
be significant. If we do get a pullback, the best support zone is at the 33854
level where we can find the confluence with the
50% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the short-term price action with the strong support level at 33854
highlighted with the blue area. From a risk management perspective, this is the
best place where the buyers can re-enter the market with a defined risk just
below the zone and target the 34477 resistance first and a breakout afterwards.
The sellers, on the other hand, can lean only on the 34477 resistance or wait
for the price to break below the 33854 support to target the 33450 swing low
first and the 32684 support afterwards.

The Dow
Jones is in for a week filled with important events. It all begins with the highly
anticipated US CPI report scheduled for tomorrow. This report is expected to
play a crucial role in shaping the market’s expectations for the upcoming FOMC
rate decision, which is set to take place the following day. Furthermore, later
in the week, there will be another Jobless Claims report and the release of the
University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The previous release of this
survey had a significant impact on the market, primarily due to a substantial
increase in long-term inflation expectations.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.