Bitcoin
has displayed a remarkable resilience to lots of negative news like the
regulatory crackdowns or the more hawkish interest rates pricing. Despite
everything that has been thrown to it, the cryptocurrency remains strong and
it’s even targeting a new higher high. Looks like only a recession or a very
hawkish Fed can stop bitcoin from reaching new highs, but even if we see a
selloff to either of those scenarios, we are likely to see a much stronger
rebound once the Fed starts cutting interest rates.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that after breaking
out of the trendline, bitcoin
rallied strongly to the 31K high where it found resistance. This
will be a key level to watch because a clear break to the upside should open
the door for a rally towards the 45K level. The sellers are likely to pile in
here with a defined risk above the resistance and target the 25K support.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that bitcoin has
been struggling a lot to break above the resistance and this has led to a
consolidation just beneath the level. We now have a support zone at the 29500
level and a resistance at the 31000 one. The best strategy in such cases would
be to wait for a clear breakout and ride the following momentum. One can also
“play the range” though buying at support and selling at resistance.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
clearly the rangebound price action. At the moment the price is making lower
lows and lower highs after the rejection from the resistance, and the moving averages are
crossed to the downside. The sellers are in control in the short term so the
target should be the 29500 support. If we see a break to the upside though, we
can expect new higher highs and the buyers piling in aggressively.

Upcoming Events

In the next days we will have some top
tier economic indicators like
the US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI tomorrow and the main event of the
week: the US NFP report on Friday. Strong data should lead to a more hawkish
pricing for interest rates and weigh on bitcoin, while negative readings should
support the cryptocurrency as the market is likely to price in a more dovish
path for interest rates.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Well, this is what you’d expect from Germany as they have always took the more hawkish position when voicing their policy stance. It is a bit of a contrast to Italy as you can see here:

• Italy PM Meloni says more ECB rate hikes may harm the economy
• ECB’s Visco: More rate hikes is not the only way to curb inflation
• ECB’s Visco: I don’t agree with idea of tightening too much over tightening too little

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Equities stumble lower in European trading
• ECB’s Nagel: Interest rates must rise further
• ECB’s Visco: More rate hikes is not the only way to curb inflation
• ECB’s Visco: I don’t agree with idea of tightening too much over tightening too little
• Eurozone May PPI -1.9% vs -1.8% m/m expected
• Eurozone June final services PMI 52.0 vs 52.4 prelim
• UK June final services PMI 53.7 vs 53.7 prelim
• Japan sees biggest average wake hike since 1993
• Citi slashes euro area 2023 GDP growth forecast to 0.8% from 1.1% previously
• Morgan Stanley lowers oil price forecast, sees surplus for first-half of next year

Markets:

• EUR and USD lead, CAD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.5%
• US 10-year yields flat at 3.863%
• Gold flat at $1,926.46
• WTI crude up 0.3% to $71.15
• Bitcoin down 1.1% to $30,416

After the slow start in Asia, things did pick up a little in Europe but not by much. Keep in mind that US traders are returning to the market today after an extended break from the 4th of July festivities since the weekend.

During the session, risk did tilt lower and the selling in equities is the notable development as stocks postured more defensively. S&P 500 futures were flattish early on but are now down 0.5% with European indices keeping most of their opening losses to be down around 0.5% to 0.7% currently.

The softer mood did drag commodity currencies lower with the aussie and loonie in particular being offered. USD/CAD is now up 0.4% to 1.3280 with AUD/USD down 0.4% to 0.6660 levels, with the latter facing a rejection from key resistance from its 100 and 200-day moving averages at around 0.6690-94 earlier.

The dollar is trading more mixed across the board with little changes against the euro (large expiries at 1.0900), yen, and pound.

We’ll see how Wall Street takes to the early developments above and don’t forget we also still have Fed minutes to come later.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar is sitting rather mixed across the board but is holding decent gains against the commodity currencies at least, with both the loonie and aussie being the laggards today.

Despite oil holding higher as OPEC+ meets and Saudi Arabia pledging their commitment to support the market, the Canadian dollar is down 0.5% against the greenback with USD/CAD up to 1.3290 currently. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is down 0.5% to 0.6660 after having brushed against key resistance from its 100 and 200-day moving averages at 0.6690-94 earlier.

That continues to be a key resistance point for the pair as sellers are looking to snap a run of four straight days of gains since last week.

The softer mood in equities is part of the reason weighing on risk currencies today. There is more of a defensive flow with 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields also down by 4.6 bps and 1.9 bps respectively at the moment.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The manufacturing sector has been contracting
basically all over the world with the biggest economies like US, China and
Eurozone being the highlights. We had recently a rally in copper prices due to
the expectations of more economic stimulus from China, but the market got
disappointed from the weak actions and it’s erasing the entire rally since the
beginning of June. As long as the central banks continue to tighten monetary
conditions and the global economy keeps on slowing down, we can expect lower
and lower prices for copper.

Copper Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the rally that
started from the bounce on the major trendline and the
3.54 support seems to
have ended at the 3.9575 resistance where we had also confluence from the
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Copper sold off pretty heavily and the moving averages crossed
to the downside possibly signalling a restart of the downtrend. The target
should now be the major trendline and the 3.54 support below. A break below the
3.54 support would open the door for a big fall into the 3.14 low.

Copper Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price
started to roll over as soon as it broke out of the rising channel. The recent
pullback seems to have ended at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the
entire drop. The buyers will need the price to break above the 3.8250 resistance
to get back some conviction and pile in for a new higher high above the 3.95
level.

Copper Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a key support zone at the 3.7550 level. We can expect more sellers piling
in in case the price breaks below the support and target the 3.62 level. On the
other hand, the buyers may lean on this support with a defined risk below it to
target the breakout of the 3.8250 resistance.

Upcoming Events

We will have some important economic
indicators in the next few days like the US Jobless
Claims and the ISM Services PMI tomorrow and the US NFP report on Friday. Weak
data, especially in the NFP report should bring recessionary fears back into
the market and lead to more downside for copper.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.