The last week, the miss in
the US CPI report has led to a big US Dollar selling
across the board as the market expected the Fed to be finished with rate hikes
after the July meeting. The USD started to come back to life though as strong
economic data suggested that the Fed may not be finished yet and may stay at a
higher level for longer than the market expects. In fact, the US retail sales
beat expectations on the Control Group, which is seen as a better gauge of
consumer spending, and yesterday the US initial claims were much better than expected
returning near the record low levels.

The RBNZ, on the other hand, kept its official cash
rate unchanged while stating that it will remain at the restrictive level for
the foreseeable future to ensure that inflation comes down back to target. The
recent New Zealand inflation data though surprised to the upside
which might put some pressure on the central bank and the next rate decision.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD sold off
pretty heavily from the key 0.6389 resistance and
erased all the USD weakness following the miss in the US CPI report. The price
is now testing the red 21 moving average and the
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level where we should find some buyers stepping in
to target another rally into the key resistance level.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a very
good support zone between the 0.62 handle and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
This is where the buyers should step in with a defined risk below the Fibonacci
level and target an extension to the 0.6389 resistance. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the Fibonacci support to pile
in even more aggressively and extend the fall into the 0.5987 support.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price is now testing the Fibonacci retracement level where we should see the
buyers stepping in. Before reaching the key resistance, the buyers will need to
break above the strong 0.63 handle, where we should find the sellers piling in
to target a fall into the support level again and ultimately a break below it. If
the price falls below this support zone without a pullback, we should see the
sellers piling in even more aggressively and extend the fall into the 0.5987
support.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Taking that into consideration, it might explain the more cagey mood among major currencies at the moment – barring the Japanese yen of course. The dollar was beaten down heavily last week but is putting its foot down this week, aided by a strong recovery in USD/JPY especially. It looks like we’ll have to wait until the key central bank decisions next week to settle the score next.

Here is the weekly outlook alongside some big data to watch out for:

Monday, 24 July

• France July flash PMI data
• Germany July flash PMI data
• Eurozone July flash PMI data
• US July flash PMI data

Wednesday, 26 July

• Australia Q2 CPI figures
• FOMC meeting policy decision
• Fed chair Powell press conference

Thursday, 27 July

• ECB monetary policy decision
• ECB president Lagarde press conference
• US Q2 advanced GDP figures
• US weekly jobless claims

Friday, 28 July

• BOJ monetary policy decision
• France Q2 preliminary GDP figures
• France July preliminary CPI figures
• Germany July preliminary CPI figures
• US June PCE price data

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.