ForexLive European FX news wrap: Euro, sterling fall on PMI misery 0 (0)

Headlines:

Markets:

  • JPY leads, GBP lags on the day
  • European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures up 0.16%
  • US 10-year yields down 6.9 bps to 4.258%
  • Gold up 0.4% to $1,904.34
  • WTI crude down 1.4% to $78.51
  • Bitcoin up 0.3% to $25,926

It was all about the PMI data releases in Europe today and there were some nasty downside surprises to the German and UK readings.

That led to selling in both the euro and pound, while the dollar kept steadier alongside the yen as bond yields also sank on the session. The poor readings were largely from the services sector, highlighting that the European economies are struggling hard in the summer and joining the manufacturing sector in contracting.

Traders pared ECB rate hike bets for September to roughly 50% while toning down their hawkish expectations on the BOE rates peak further away from 6%.

EUR/USD was hovering around 1.0860 earlier on but fell to 1.0805 and is keeping just above the crucial 1.0800 level with the 200-day moving average at 1.0797 and large option expiries at the figure level today providing some layer of defense – for now at least.

GBP/USD was arguably the bigger loser, falling from 1.2750 earlier in the day all the way down to 1.2630 levels now and testing its 100-day moving average at 1.2635.

USD/JPY kept lower throughout, with the fall in bond yields helping things along. The pair was hovering around 145.60 earlier on but is now near the lows for the day around 145.25 currently.

In other markets, oil is also down over 1% on worries about a further economic slowdown globally. Meanwhile, equities were initially turning a blind eye to the PMI data but have now seen gains pared ahead of US trading, with all eyes on the Nvidia earnings to come. Is it a case of buy the rumour, sell the fact this week?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Equities pare early gains, Nvidia earnings still the one to watch 0 (0)

European indices have pared their earlier gains as US futures also pull back from the highs earlier. At first, it seemed like the awful PMI data in Europe would have no impact on equities but we are starting to see some nerves creep up again now. Here’s a snapshot of things:

  • Eurostoxx -0.1%
  • Germany DAX flat
  • France CAC 40 -0.1%
  • UK FTSE +0.6%
  • S&P 500 futures +0.16%
  • Nasdaq futures +0.14%
  • Dow futures +0.15%

Only the UK FTSE is the outlier in the list above as it is benefitting from a softer pound, whereby we are seeing cable run down by 0.7% to test its 100-day moving average at 1.2635 currently.

Going back to equities, it’s going to be a tough battle today as the anticipation continues ahead of the Nvidia earnings – which will come after market close. It has arguably been the key driver helping to drive the dip buying this week and we shall see if buyers will be vindicated as such.

Otherwise, I fear that if tech stocks can’t carry their weight in the aftermath, it could lead to yet another rough week for equities after having already been offered strongly so far in August.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 18 August -4.2% vs -0.8% prior 0 (0)

  • Prior -0.8%
  • Market index 184.8 vs 193.0 prior
  • Purchase index 142.0 vs 149.5 prior
  • Refinance index 397.1 vs 408.4 prior
  • 30-year mortgage rate 7.31% vs 7.16% prior

The pain in the mortgage market continues as we see another 4% drop in applications in the past week. Both purchases and refinancing activity suffered greatly as the most popular US home loan rate surges to its highest since 2000. Other parts of the US economy may be resilient to the Fed’s rate hikes, but the housing market is certainly being hurt the most I would say.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Bitcoin Technical Analysis – The bearish bias remains 0 (0)

Bitcoin
eventually fold as the big picture outlook is starting to look more and more
bleak with global growth endangered by the Chinese ailing economy and lack of
big stimulus from the authorities, and the “higher for longer” stance from the
Fed or even more rate hikes. The resilience in the cryptocurrency has been
remarkable in the past months, but we might be at a tipping point now.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin fell
below the trendline support
where we had also the 50% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. The
price has eventually bounced on the strong support at 25231
but it’s starting to look more like a “dead-cat bounce” rather than a start of
another rally. The buyers, nonetheless, are likely to pile in here with a
defined risk below the level to target new highs.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that if we get a
bigger pullback, the most likely resistances will be the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level and the stronger 61.8% level where we have also the broken
trendline. More conservative sellers may want to just wait for the price to fall
below the 25231 support to pile in and ride the selloff into the 21509 level.

Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a minor resistance at 26300 where the price got rejected multiple times.
So now we have a range between the 25231 support and the 26300 resistance. A
break on either side should lead to a more sustained move.

Upcoming Events

This week is
pretty empty on the economic data side as we will only have the PMIs today and
the US Jobless Claims tomorrow. Strong data should support Bitcoin in the short
term, but the prospects of more rate hikes might weigh on the cryptocurrency
soon after. Conversely, weak data is likely to cause some recessionary fears in
the markets leading to negative risk sentiment and eventually weighing on
Bitcoin. Remember also that this is the Jackson Hole Symposium week, so we will
hear from many central bankers including Fed Chair Powell, who is set to speak
on Friday.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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